Adelaide and taking draft punts

Beating the odds has been pivotal for Adelaide at the draft table in the fallout to the Kurt Tippett scandal.

With their top draft-picks being slashed they were forced to tread carefully when drafting to ensure they were getting value and beating their self-imposed odds.

With the Tippett fallout now behind them, at this year’s draft Adelaide could finally start to take a punt on top-line talent, chasing the blue chippers they crave to replace the player exodus of recent seasons.

The first of those punts was taking young Victorian key position prospect Jake Lever over local player Sam Durdin. Given the defections Adelaide has suffered to key position players the expectation was there that Durdin would be an Adelaide player if he slipped to 14. Instead, with Lever being another slider on draft day, Adelaide has taken the risk that they have found the second piece of a dynamic defensive duo alongside highly regarded Daniel Talia.

Lever represents a risk for Adelaide, not just on ‘go home’ factor but also because come pre-season it will be over 12 months since Lever has played due to a yearlong knee injury. What Adelaide appear to see though is a player who has the upside of being an elite shutdown defender but also a foil to Talia in that Lever does have the ability to rebound from the back half as well. It is a risk, but if it works Adelaide could well have two rising star defenders in their back six.

With the punt taken at pick 14, Adelaide could only consider themselves lucky that South Australian Under 18 most valuable player Harrison Wigg was still available at pick 35. Wigg is the opposite of taking a punt, being one of the safest investments of all the draft. Wigg will give Adelaide much-needed drive from their defensive fifty as an elite ball user who make good decisions and has been well groomed in defensive capabilities. For a young player Wigg ticks all the boxes a club looks for and was a no-brainer for the Crows.

For their final two picks Adelaide took the punt on two AFL names, perhaps in the hope that they are getting the same assets and skill set that went with those names.

Mitch McGovern, brother of West Coast utility Jeremy, is a mature-aged recruit and was a solid contributor at senior WAFL last year. With a similar body shape and game to his brother the comparisons are apt and clearly Adelaide are hoping Mitch can be a similar asset to his brother.

Their final pick was Harry Dear, son of former Hawk Paul. Like McGovern, Harry has a similar body size and likely a similar game to his father. The risk is there, but if Adelaide are getting a Jeremy McGovern clone and a 2014 version of 1991 Paul Dear, then they have significantly boosted their key position stocks.

The Crows were forced to beat the draft odds because of their own greed over the past three seasons, but out of those tough times has come a club and list management team prepared to return to finals. As the football world continually reiterates, this team was one kick away from the 2012 grand final.

History’s lessons, present’s gamble, future’s reward? That is the Adelaide Football Club heading to 2015.