As Geoff lemon recently wrote, Michael Clarke’s potential return from injury could give the Australian selectors some major headaches.
You wouldn’t be out of line in thinking that the team doesn’t even need it’s captain to win the World Cup. In fact they might be better off without him.
The batting line-up is unbelievably strong, even without Michael Clarke in the side.
If Clarke does recovery in time for the World Cup it’s going to be difficult figuring out which batsman to replace, especially if they’re all scoring runs.
Steve Smith is essentially filling in for Michael Clarke in the side but what happens if he continues his golden run of form and makes plenty of runs in the upcoming tri-series? Surely he’s not getting dropped.
The same goes for George Bailey, who has a fantastic one-day record and has done an admirable job as stand-in skipper when Clarke’s been injured.
But assuming Clarke does recover in time and the selectors still want him to captain the side, who gets the chop?
Let’s have a look at the two most likely line-ups Australia will go with while Clarke is out.
Option 1
David Warner
Aaron Finch
Shane Watson
Steve Smith
George Bailey
Mitch Marsh/Glenn Maxwell – depending on Marsh’s fitness and weather they want the extra spin option in the side.
Brad Haddin
James Faulkner
Mitchell Johnson
Mitchell Starc/Josh Hazlewood/Pat Cummins – take your pick.
Xavier Doherty
A very balanced side. The batting features an explosive top order, a steady middle order and big-hitting all rounders to finish off the innings, while the bowling unit possesses great variety and depth, which is essential in a 50 over match.
Option 2
Warner
Finch
Watson
Smith
Bailey
Maxwell
Haddin
Faulkner
Johnson
Starc
Hazlewood/Cummins
In this scenario Marsh and Doherty are out and an extra fast bowler comes into the side. Maxwell now becomes the main spinning option, making this a risky move considering his economy rate.
In both cases I can’t see an all-rounder making way for Clarke, it would need to be one of the batsmen. It’s the all rounders that give this team the edge over all the other nations in the World Cup. No other team will have the options or flexibility the Australians possess in the field.
Well if Clarke’s not replacing Smith, Bailey or the all rounders, what about the openers?
Finch looks safe. He’s been one of the in-form openers in the world the past year or so and it would take some seriously lack of runs for him to get dropped.
What about the dynamic Dave Warner, surely he couldn’t be a candidate to make way for the captain?
Well the answer surprisingly is yes, he could be.
Although he’s thought of as one of the most damaging limited-overs players in the game, the numbers just don’t back that up.
To further illustrate this point here are the batting statisitcs in one-day internationals for the Australian batsmen in the squad.
| Batting av | Strike rate | |
| Warner | 31.4 | 83.5 |
| Finch | 37.2 | 87.4 |
| Watson | 41.1 | 91.2 |
| Clarke | 44.2 | 78.6 |
| Bailey | 44.2 | 87.9 |
| Smith | 31.7 | 87.7 |
| Marsh | 36 | 89.8 |
All the batsmen in the squad have a better ODI average than Warner, and only Clarke has a lower strike rates!
To make matters worse, Warner has only made two centuries in 49 innings. Now compare that to his opening partner in Aaron Finch, who’s scored five centuries in just 35 innings.
It’s almost unfathomable that Warner would be regarded as the weakest link in the batting order but that’s exactly what the above statistics show.
Dropping Warner however would require the batting order to be re-jigged somewhat, as Watson would probably move up to opener where he’s batted most of his one-day career. One of either Smith or Clarke would then need to bat at number three – a risky move probably not worth taking.
The easiest and most logical move is to just leave Clarke out.
This would be a huge call by the selectors considering Michael Clarke is the captain of the side, but unless one of the other batsmen has a horrific run of form I can’t justify him being selected.
It’s not as if Clarke is a superior one-day batsman to Smith or Bailey, who have both averaged over 45 the past two years compared to Clarke’s 37.
There’s still a chance however that Clarke doesn’t heal in time for the second match of the tournament – which is the deadline the selectors have given him – or maybe one of the other batsmen gets injured, opening up a spot for the captain to return.
In the end it probably won’t matter because when the worst batsman in the side is David Warner you know you’re in good shape.
13th Man
Roar Pro
Agree with you, often Finch does look shaky and its big score or not much. However statistics say that he is safe so it is Watson and Bailey under the most pressure.
13th Man
Roar Pro
Maxwell probably has had a pressure release from the PM XI game. Watson and Bailey are the ones most under pressure and need a big score. If one of those two was to be dropped Wattos bowling would keep him in front of Bailey but both need runs. The best scenario is for Michael Clarke to be pulled out and be replaced by Adam Voges or Cam White who can be reserve batsmen.
Matt
Roar Rookie
Hmm I'm not sure the guys you listed are capable of everything Bailey is, except maybe Marsh. In the absence of Wade, Bailey can scrap runs or hit boundaries depending on the situation. Hypothetically, if we lose 5 wickets with 25 overs to go who would you rather come in to steady the ship, Maxwell, Marsh or Bailey? For mine it would be Finch to come out the team and Watson put up to open the batting. Watto is an excellent limited overs opener regardless of his test form, and you can move the "meat" of the batting order (Smith, Clarke, Bailey) one position up without too much trouble in white ball cricket. Then it's not an either/or with Marsh, Maxwell and Faulkner and we can pick a strong bowling group.
Rellum
Roar Guru
Finch has batted 18 times in ODI's in 2014 with 4 hundreds and 3 fifties at an average of 43.88. That to me seems reason enough for him to be one of the openers.
spruce moose
Guest
Great calls...you haven't actually addressed my arguments at all. Finch may score quickly, but what good is a quick 20 all the time?
jammel
Guest
hey Bearfax - so if you aren't playing clarke (which is a reasonable position to take) who'd come in for you? I think it would probably come down to one from White, Lynn and SMarsh. I'd go for Sean Marsh myself.
jammel
Guest
Yep on the stats it would be Warner who's dropped. Won't happen though. It will be a shoot out between Finch + Bailey against England (and in the triseries). The better of those retains their spot when Pup's back. Personally I'd keep Finch and ditch Bailey. I think there are others in the side already who can perform a lot of the role Bailey will perform - e.g. faulkner, maxwell, marsh, etc.
Bearfax
Guest
With Clarke's injury worries, and I know he will object to this, I would leave him out and save him for the tests. He is much more valuable to a test side than to our one day side.
Bob Sims
Guest
Warner most likely to drop out? Don't think so, Tones. The biggest factor against this happening, and the one you've left out, is current form. The best scenario is that Clarke doesn't regain fitness by the deadline, and is replaced, thereby alleviating pressure on the rest of the squad when he inevitably breaks down again. This also leaves him free to do proper and lengthy rehab and regain fitness for the Ashes, which is what he should have been doing all along. Remember also that there are a lot of us out there who are aware that you can make statistics say just about whatever you like.
Mark Ferguson
Roar Rookie
Wow no way do you drop Finch, the combo with Warner when it comes off means we win. Both score at an amazing rate which is crucial for building a large innings. Bailey just takes far too long to get going and places alot of pressure on the other middle order batsmen and when he gets out for not much he's taken far too many balls to get there. On Maxwell he needs to settle down and play cricket and not try to smack every ball out of the park, fine in 20/20 but you have a bit more time in the 50 over fromat.
Mitch
Guest
Bit stiff for George to miss out but I feel like that is the way they would go. Unless you could get 10 overs out of Watto and drop an all rounder which will never happen.
Sideline Comm.
Guest
Smith batted at three in the Pakistan ODIs. Easy transition for him. On the stats Warner should be dropped and Watson open with Smith at 3. But it will NEVER happen.
spruce moose
Guest
I'd probably drop Finch to be honest. He's not reliable. In between tons there isn't too much padding. I think Clarke opening with Warner would be a good combo.
jamal
Guest
I would say the upcoming tri - series will most likely provide a clearer picture. Bailey and maxwell are both under the most pressure due to form. Warner needs to lift his stats in ODIs - he is better than that. We should also consider how the test series failures and his mental state will impact Watson. The tri - series will be interesting to see how this all pans out and should provide some answers for you.
Jarijari
Guest
Don't worry about the stats. They won't be dropping Warner. Also be hard to drop Bailey if he's doing a good job. Best result will be if Clarke is not ready or not wanted.
ajay
Guest
don't think so Tony these are overall stats tell me his stats from UAE tour(he is looking in great touch after that tour in odis) ? + great fieldsman like smith and big''(NO)'' show . i think bailey? is the man his avz was 54 in india series and from there zimbabe ?? UAE?? SA series ??? . because you just can't drop smith. warner finch watson clarke smith hadds m.marsh/maxwell faulkner cummins strac johnson