Nick Kyrgios has made two Grand Slam quarter-final appearances as a teenager, the first player to do so since Roger Federer achieved the same feat in 2001.
He has achieved more than any other player as a teenager in recent times with his offensive baseline game, and with an ability to deal with pressure situations within a match that is probably beyond his years.
However, over the next year or two, we are going to learn a lot more about Kyrgios, and his ability to adapt to playing regularly on the ATP World Tour.
Playing on the ATP World Tour in today’s world is a tough and uncompromising environment, especially for a young player coming up through the rankings. It can take a couple of years for even the best young players to adapt to the demands of playing at the tour level.
This is for a number of reasons.
The high level of the opposition, especially at the start of a tournament, means you must be on your game right from the start of the match. You could be playing someone in the first round who you would normally play in the second, third or fourth round in a Grand Slam tournament, and then there’s the shorter best of three sets format. You cannot drift mentally or emotionally in and out of a match like you might in a best of five sets match.
This is a deceptively hard thing for a young player to adapt to on the ATP World Tour, and that is why we have seen very few breakthroughs in terms of winning titles on the tour from younger players.
Adding to this, playing and being around a select group of players regularly means that the opposition is working out your game, and trying to come up with ways to beat you. This can be a difficult thing for a young player, such as Kyrgios, to deal with, adding to the pressure that he may feel going into matches and events.
Following on from that is the sheer physicality of the players on the ATP World Tour is at an extremely high level, meaning that your body must be able to handle the demands of playing high level matches back-to-back, which means you must be extremely fit and ready to deal with the physical demands of playing consistently. You must also be able to remain fit, and not suffer too many injuries, a danger for every player, but especially for the younger players on tour.
Kyrgios has carried an injury in his back during his run to the quarter-finals at the Australian Open, which has forced him to withdraw from tour events in Marseille and Dubai to try and recover in time for the first round Davis Cup tie against the Czech Republic in March.
This can potentially place pressure on Kyrgios as he might feel that he is losing precious time to try and defend, as well as gain ranking points before getting to the stage of the season where he needs to defend a high number of ranking points from the year before.
This is one of the challenges that Kyrgios will be facing this year. For the first time in his career, he will face the pressure of having to defend a high number of ranking points from a tournament in the previous year, his quarter-final result from Wimbledon 2014.
The challenge of defending a good result for the first time is a task that even the best young players have struggled with over recent years. It is something that Kyrgios is going to have to learn to deal with, both on a mental and emotional level, to have long-term success on the ATP World Tour. But the only way to learn about this is by being in those situations, and learning how to deal with that type of pressure.
He knows how to deal with the pressure of playing in front of a big crowd, as well as playing at home, while his ability to deal with pressure within a match is something not too many at his age have, but dealing with the pressure of defending ranking points will be a completely new experience.
So, can Nick Kyrgios finish 2015 in the top 20 in the ATP World Rankings?
Possibly, but it will depend on many of the factors that I have mentioned throughout this article. The fact is that every facet of his game, and his approach to the game, as well as certain aspects of his character, will be hugely tested by all the players on the tour. If Kyrgios can pass all the challenges that he will confront over the course of this year, he can certainly be a top 20 player by the end of the year.
However, with not too many younger players over the last five to 10 years being able to achieve this on their first full year on the ATP World Tour, it is far from being a certainty, despite his great result at the Australian Open.
It is going to be tough, but regardless of what happens this year, Kyrgios can and probably will be a future champion in the sport.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
The absolute top guys have just raised the level so much that it actually takes years to get to that level, which is why most of the guys in the top 20 now are actually over 25. The level that Federer took the game to, has dragged everyone else along and requires years of continually working hard to improve your game to be able to get into the top echelon of players. The last player to win a major as a teen was Nadal, who won the French and has only lost a single game there as his game is so perfectly tailored to dominating on that surface, but it took him a few more years of hard work to get his level up to what was required to win on other surfaces too. The question is whether Kyrgios can actually play regularly on the tour this year. He barely played any tournaments outside the majors last year. If he wants his ranking to get up and stay up, he needs to play at least 10 tournaments this year and do reasonably well in all of them, or more like 15-20 to allow for some where he doesn't do that great. His ranking is up to 35 now, basically due to 2 tournaments. That means that he doesn't need to do a lot to be seeded come the French and Wimbledon, but unless he manages to match last years performance at Wimbledon, he'll drop out straight away unless he's got a few other good results keeping him up there. I think he could sneak into the top 20 at different points, but if he can get some results to stay consistently in the top 30 then he can get those seedings which will help. Of course, if he can get to 24 or better by the French that's even better as it's avoids meeting a top 8 player in the round of 32 of the majors!
Winston
Guest
That's fine. What I'm saying is it's not just about the mental side. With Tomic lots of people said he's got the goods and just needs to get his head right. I've always disagreed. It's the same with Kyrgios. He's got weaknesses which are more than what a strong mind alone can overcome.
Ryan Eckford
Roar Guru
8th paragraph, where I talk about the opposition working him out, which could mean targeting areas as you have mentioned Winston. I think I could have a whole article talking about his actual game and playing style, but that wouldn't necessarily talk about the challenges he will face on the ATP World Tour.
Winston
Guest
You're not wrong on the things you listed, but I think you've missed a whole chunk. You haven't said anything about his skills - not just racquet work, but the whole package, speed, endurance, body balance, core strength the whole lot. In the Murray match, time and time again he would hit a good forehand down the line, but Murray was fast enough and good enough to not only get there, but whip a flat backhand cross court. When that happened, Kyrgios either couldn't get back to the left side, or even when he does, he's not good enough to hit the next backhand. His running forehand was also non-existent. These weaknesses will get him killed unless he can get rid of them.