There’s been hysteria regarding players signing overseas after the 2015 Rugby World Cup. There is the perception that Australia is losing more players than ever to overseas, and the players are younger and better.
It’s hard to get a good view of things over a short sample period. So in order to look at this, I’ve reviewed our past Wallabies and what they are doing now, or did upon leaving Australia.
To begin with are players who represented the Wallabies after the 2007 Rugby World Cup, up to and including the 2011 Rugby World Cup, and where are they now. In this cycle 62 players represented the Wallabies.
Of these, five retired by the end of 2012 (Al Baxter, Dan Vickerman, Matt Dunning, Phil Waugh and Sam Cordingly) and a further two ended up in the NRL (Lote Tuqiri and Timana Tahu).
Eight ended up plying their trade in overseas leagues: two in Japan (George Smith and Hugh McMeniman), one in England (Huia Edmonds), and five in France (Josh Valentine, Luke Burgess, Mark Chisholm, Matt Giteau and Ryan Cross).
So did we have a post-2011 World Cup exodus? Hardly. We lost almost as many players to retirement as we did to overseas leagues.
In addition, players like Huia (five Caps in 2010 only) and Josh Valentine (four Caps in 2009 and one cap in 2010) were unlikely to receive further caps, and that formed part of their decision. George Smith, Matt Giteau and Luke Burgess were the only players considered to be match-day certainties in that period. Considering their ages (30, 28 and 29) when they departed, being in the twilight of their careers could also have been a factor. In addition Ryan Cross had competition from Adam Ashley-Cooper for Stirling Mortlock’s 13 jersey, and lacking the same versatility would have at best found himself only a squad player.
The only players we lost in their prime were Burgess and Chisholm. Chisholm had played a number of Tests and while a good Super Rugby player, was behind James Horwill and Nathan Sharpe in the pecking order, with Dan Vickerman returning and Rob Simmons coming through. He again was not guaranteed a spot in a first-choice Wallaby squad.
Giteau’s form had been on the decline since his peak in 2008, where he was one of our most influential players. Since then a number of other players had come through the ranks and unfortunately Matt had never been an international standard flyhalf for much more than that one season. Furthermore, his style of play was not really suited to 12 given the options we had at 10.
Losing players like this, and George Smith who at 30 had played over 100 Tests, is inevitable as they feel they have done everything they can in their careers and look for a different experience.
So how does this compare to after the 2015 Rugby World Cup?
In the three seasons from 2012 to 2014 we had 70 players pull on the Wallaby jersey – well up from the four-year period before that, and it’s this number could actually climb to 75 by the end of the World Cup with fringe players like Tom English, Kyle Godwin, Siliva Siliva, Caydern Neville and others showing potential having previously been part of Wallaby squads.
Only three of these Wallabies have retired since the 2011 World Cup: Nathan Sharpe (2012), Dan Palmer (2014) and Pat McCabe (2014). In addition to this, none have gone to the NRL.
At the beginning of February 2015, 17 of these 70 players will be playing overseas in 2016 (ages at end of final Super Rugby season in brackets): Adam Ashley-Cooper (31, France), Ben Mowen (30, France), Berrick Barnes (27, Japan), Brendan McKibbin (30, England), Brett Sheehan (34, England), Cooper Vuna (25, Japan), Digby Ioane (28, France), Drew Mitchell (29, France), George Smith (33, Japan), Hugh McMeniman (31, Japan), James Horwill (30, England), Kane Douglas (25, Ireland), Nic White (25, France), Scott Higginbotham (29, Japan), Sekope Kepu (29, France), Sitaleki Timani (27, France), and Will Genia (27, France).
I have not included returning players like Radike Samo and Nick Cummins in this list, but I have not excluded short-term returns from players on the previous list like McMeniman and Smith either.
What needs to be considered is the context of these numbers. In my view we lost two players that we should have kept after the 2011 Rugby World Cup. How many players will be under 29 when they depart at the end of this season, or when they departed?
Berrick Barnes was 27 when he left in 2013. Cooper Vuna was 25 when he left in 2013. Digby Ioane was 28 when he left in 2013. Kane Douglas was 25 when he left in 2014. Sitaleki Timani was 27 when he left in 2013. Nic White will be 25 when he leaves this season and Will Genia will be 27 when he leaves.
So we have lost five players in their prime who were regular match-day 23 players (Barnes, Ioane, Timani, White and Genia). Considering that White and Genia shared the reserve halfback spot, it’s not unexpected to lose one of them – the one who appears to be least favoured by the coach. It is not ideal to lose both though.
Sekope Kepu is the biggest loss. He has for the past two seasons been our best, and preferred tighthead prop. At 29 this year, perhaps he is expecting this to be his last contract. Most would say that props mature later, however how many great Australian props have peaked into their 30s? I’ve seen more cases of highly rated props having their international careers ended by poor form and penalties (Baxter and Dunning for example), so we shouldn’t just assume by virtue of age he will automatically improve.
Where does this leave us? Yes there has been an increase in players going to the Northern Hemisphere since 2011. Has it reached alarming levels? Not exactly from a Wallaby point of view. How many players have we lost that were first choice players in their position? One. And he is 29 years old.
While it would be ideal to keep all these players, there just is not any economic benefit in paying for players you don’t intend to play.
When we look back further, does this change?
Excluding players already discussed, the following players moved to the Northern Hemisphere after the 2007 World Cup:
David Lyons (2008, Wales)
Jeremy Paul (2007, England)
Sam Cordingly (2008, France)
Mark Gerrard (2010, Japan)
Stephen Larkham (2008, Japan)
Chris Latham (2008, England)
Scott Staniforth (2010, Japan)
George Gregan (2007, France)
In addition to these players, we lost the following Wallabies in the four-year lead-up, or immediately after:
Mark Bartholomeusz (2004, England)
Daniel Heenan (2007, Japan)
Radike Samo (2006, France)
Matt Henjak (2004, England)
Al Campbell (2008, France)
Lloyd Johansson (2008, Italy)
Lachlan McKay (2008, France)
David Fitter (2006, England)
Rodney Blake (2008, France)
Joe Roff (2005, Japan)
Owen Finegan (2005, England)
Matt Cockbain (2004, Wales)
Toutai Kefu (2004, Japan)
Nathan Grey (2005, Japan)
Chris Whittaker (2006, Ireland)
Andrew Walker (2006, France via NRL)
Justin Harrison (2005, Ireland)
So in the context of the past, are we losing a lot of our Wallabies? I’d argue no more than previously.
The fact that immediately following the 2007 Rugby World Cup we lost 11 Wallabies (Lyons, Paul, Cordingly, Larkham, Latham, Gregan, Heenan, Campbell, McKay, Blake, Johansson) shows we have had large groups of players depart previously.
In the period after the 2003 World Cup we had already lost 12 players.
To put that into context, we have now lost 17 Wallabies of the last four years, out of a pool of 175 professional players in Australia.
From the 2003 Rugby World Cup we lost 12 recent players out of a pool of 105 professional players, and immediately following the 2007 Rugby World Cup we lost recent 11 players out of a pool of 140 professional players.
So is this a new problem? No. Australian players have been going overseas for as long as teams have paid players to player.
Is this problem getting significantly worse? Not really. In the context of the player pool it has probably dropped a little.
Are we losing all of our best players all of a sudden? Not really. The cases of losing players we really want over other options to keep are still rare. Compare this to the 2007 Rugby World Cup team. Within 12 months we had lost eight players who were in our best match-day team when fit and available in the 2007 Test season (Paul, Cordingly, Larkham, Latham, Gregan, Vickerman, Elsom, Lyon). Now that’s an exodus if you ask me.
Perhaps there isn’t as much need for the hysterics some want us to believe.
RobC
Roar Guru
Train, it seems the situation has started to change re Foley
RobC
Roar Guru
There goes Foley: http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/rugby/bernard-foley-to-join-wallabies-overseas-exodus-and-play-in-japan-after-world-cup/story-fnii0ksb-1227217875807
JimmyB
Guest
Great post Biffo.
Bakkies
Guest
'I thought the reason Digby wasnt getting tries, because there was little space created, by 2013.' His tries at test level since 2011 had dried up. He only scored one at the RWC and just two after that. Cummins has done the same role or running hard lines.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
He was also exposed as well off the pace for the Boks in 2014 which lead to him withdrawing himself from the squad though, wasn't he?
Bakkies
Guest
Smith came back from full time retirement and has been a good player for Toulon. Percy Montgomery was a much more complete player when he came back from Newport.
Bakkies
Guest
They have a paid holiday option in their contract which disadvantages their Super Rugby side as they end up with having a key squad player they can't use. At least when Elsom left it didn't cost Australian Rugby to pay a player that is unavailable as he was off contract.
Bakkies
Guest
'JOC left Australia for greener pastures, he was not forced to leave, he chose to go for more money.' O'Connor got booted out and no one else in Australia was willing to sign him.
pjm
Roar Rookie
He was playing more like a centre, he should of stuck with the positional switch.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Well if you don't consider Larkham, Latham, Gregan, etc. who were all match day 22 players and left immediately after the 2007 RWC then I don't know what to say.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
What can you do about overseas clubs willing to gamble on completely unknown quantities? Even if the ARU were flush with funds, they couldn't contract every single player who shows a morsel of promise if they wanted to remain flush with funds.
Ozee316
Guest
I am not satisfied with your use of statistics. You analyzed the data and came to the conclusion that the recent 17 Top players leaving as a percentage of a growing player pool is 'not a growing trend' because the player pool grew from 105 to 170 during the period, while players leaving grew from 11 to 17. Nominally you are only correct if the player quality was evenly distributed throughout the above player pool. Analysing basic facts: There were more players leaving in 2014. They are top players. There are more professional players. Your statistical analysis implies that Australia has MORE top rugby players than it did in 2003 for the statistic to remain stable. Because the 17 is out of top players, not lower professionals. The Wallaby team won the World Cup when? Was it better in 2003 than in 2014. You are claiming there are proportionally more BETTER rugby players in Australia now but Wallaby results do not back that up. Logic says Australia has more pro players to fill teams but a similar number or world class players as in 2003 and more of these are heading offshore.
RobC
Roar Guru
I thought the reason Digby wasnt getting tries, because there was little space created, by 2013. As enterprising as ever, he would look for work, and truck up the ball - acting as an extra forward. The reverse of Hooper, no insult intended to either of them. I thought Digby was still one of the best, and was first pick in every match he was fit for.
Rob9
Guest
There was for him in the Wallabies while he made himself available. All wingers go through a drought every now and again and with a strike rate of a try just over every 3 caps for the Reds and the Wallabies, he was hardly a stranger to the white line.
pjm
Roar Rookie
He couldn't finish though, and there's just no room for wingers who can't finish.
Rob9
Guest
Point is, if available he walks into that Wallaby backline every day of the week in 3013. 10 Super Rugby games doesn't change that. Like most (almost all bar a few AB's) players, he has his shortcomings. But he serves a purpose and provides balance to a back 3 that has a kicking wing. The guys a meter-eater with the ability to beat the first defender more often than not. Despite his short season, the fact that he finished 3rd in the comp for defenders beaten and 10th for overall meters suggests he was still doing a pretty good job of the things he brings to a team. I'd suggest the notoriously lateral 2014 Reds desperately missed his bullocking carries that consistently put his team over the gain line.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Rob I believe the question marks at the time were more so over if Digby would be fit and healthy. I recall concerns over his knees.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
GS your comment about who is there to replace players is probably the most relevant point of all this discussion really. My view is that we survived, and at times thrived, losing 1 Wallabies in a World Cup cycle when we only had 3 franchises, we are in a stronger position with 5. Kepu is a huge loss no doubt. But let's not forget that Greg Holmes has developed into a great tighthead now. He's much better than when he represented the Wallabies. Laurie Weeks has progressed well after initial slippage in his first years at the Rebels. The highly rated Allatola (sp?) brothers are rising through the ranks at the Waratahs and Brumbies. Paddy Ryan may yet improve. Faulkner is a prospect in the West. They may all be inferior to Kepu in the end, but the potential is there. Whilst I was always a fan of him, I'm not going to let Mowen's departure worry me at all. At the end the day he was a 6/8 who lacked a strong running game and strong physical presence. We already have Sean McMahon, Luke Jones, Ben McCalman, Scott Higginbotham, Wycliff Palu, Dave Dennis and Scott Fardy who offer more all-round (though only Higginbotham is near the same quality in the line out) whilst young players like Angus Cottrell, Jarrad Butler and Curtis Browning are showing their ability and potential. Yes Mowen was a good captain but he needed to be selected on merit before that. With all fit that would be a struggle.
grapeseed
Guest
Good points and some good comparisons, but our different interpretations of the data comes down to a different view of the impact of each individual player's premature departure, who was there to replace them, where they were in their career etc. I guess it's just personal opinion at the end of the day. My concern is where this is heading - as I said above, it's all about extrapolating from the trend. Good work on all the data collection and analysis though, I think this site has been screaming out for this type of detailed article and subsequent depth of discussion. It can't all be about picking a Marvel Super hero fantasy rugby team to play a DC comics fantasy rugby team. Actually, that gives me an idea for an article!
Rob9
Guest
So because O'Connor was selected at 10 for the Lions series means all Wallaby team selections during that period can be taken with a grain of salt?? And you suggest I'm not a 'rugby man'?? As I said, Digby was the incumbent and there wasn't any question marks over whether a fit and healthy Ioane would be in the Wallaby XV for the Lions series. I agree, his form for Stade has been patchy from what I've seen. A few things with that though- he has been in and out since debuting in the Top 14 and he wouldn't be the first international who has made the move to a foreign competition and struggled with form. Digby has also made it pretty clear that he has suffered with homesickness. Under a more comfortable and familiar environment, I don't believe Digby was a spent force.