The fearless February Super Rugby predictions

Motivated mostly by the confidence that I couldn’t possibly do any worse than the prediction ability of my Cheap Seats Podcast co-host, Ryan O’Connell, I figured that today was the day to lay out my Super Rugby predictions for 2015.

Who are the favourites?
If I was a bookmaker – and I’m pretty glad I’m not – I’d have the Waratahs, Chiefs and Bulls all on the top line of betting right at this point.

The Crusaders would be trailing just behind them, and the Sharks and Brumbies on the third line. That would be my top six, too, though perhaps not necessarily in that order.

The Waratahs have genuine rights to start a season as favourites for a change, the Chiefs become a totally different team with the return of Sonny Bill Williams, and the Bulls have had a busy off-season of recruitment.

Who’s the smokey?
I think it’s the Bulls. Their pack will be strengthened by the addition of Cheetahs trio Adriaan Strauss, Trevor Nyakane, and Lappies Labuschagne, and they don’t leave South Africa until May (nor do the Sharks, for the record).

Plus, they play seven of their eight home games by Round 12, have a bye, and when they finally do leave the Republic, they play the Blues, Chiefs, Brumbies, and Rebels, before returning home to host the Cheetahs. And they won’t play the Waratahs and Highlanders.

Wooden spooners
I have massive concerns for the Cheetahs. They qualified for their first playoffs series ever in 2013, slumped to 14th last year, and then saw somewhere in the vicinity of 20 players depart. Willie le Roux is a very, very good player, but he’s going to have to be Superman for the Cheetahs to do anything spectacular in 2015.

Early tip for the disappointment of the season
The Stormers. With Allister Coetzee already announcing his departure, and Eddie Jones already sighted hanging around Newlands, I just get the feeling all the talk about the Stormers this year is going to be off-field. And with Jean de Villiers out, how much more superhuman will Duane Vermeulen have to be for the mob from Cape Town to make the playoffs? I’m not writing them off, but the pen is poised.

Early tip for season surprise packets?
My gut feeling says the Hurricanes. On paper, a backline containing TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Ma’a Nonu, and Conrad Smith in his last season of Super Rugby, should be right up there with the best of them. So if their forwards can compete well enough at the breakdown to secure some clean ball, they could be anything. I hope I’m right, too, because the Hurricanes on their day are among the more entertaining teams in the competition.

Biggest worry?
Refereeing. I hate being critical of refs, and I loathe arguments saying this team would’ve won if the ref didn’t do that, but when the list of Super Rugby referees came out, I just had a bad feeling.

Steve Walsh (108 games), Craig Joubert (84), Chris Pollock (61), and Jaco Peyper (48) are the most experienced Super Rugby referees, but then after Glenn Jackson’s 30 games, there are another eleven refs in the 16-man squad with less than a full season’s worth of Super Rugby games under their belt. Eek…

Is the Sonny Bill factor really a thing?
Yeah, I think it is. He’s the major reason I see the Chiefs as one of the early favourites, as I outlined above, and it’s all because he offers another focal point of attack. And this in turn takes the pressure off Aaron Cruden, who can then go back to what he does best – directing and creating the play, rather than having to make the play himself.

As dangerous as the Williams offload is, it’s his presence, and the way opposition defences will have to watch him like a hawk, that will free up Cruden, and that’s where I think the Chiefs will most benefit.

Could Bill Pulver be right about three Australian sides in the playoffs?
Well yes, of course he could be right.

Look, it’s not impossible, but for three Australian sides to get through, it would require the bounce of the ball, the alignment of the planets, the generosity of officialdom, the rub of the green, the vibe, the Constitution; everything that could go right would have to go right. It’s not impossible, but it’s pretty bloody close to it.

And if it did happen, which three? My guess would be the Waratahs, the Brumbies, and the… Reds.

Why the Waratahs can go back-to-back
The combinations are a year older. The team know the coach’s methods can win a Super Rugby title. They’ll be motivated by the desire to send Michael Cheika and the post-Rugby World Cup departing players away from the ‘Tahs as winners.

They’ve got their captain back. Tala Gray could be the next big thing. Kurtley Beale will be on a mission. They’ve got a good draw: they avoid the Chiefs and Bulls, and play the Sharks and Crusaders at home. Their South African tour pits them against the Lions and Cheetahs.

…and why they can’t
I’m not sure their scrum questions from last year have been properly answered. The lineout might be an even bigger problem without Kane Douglas as a focal point. Teams won’t let them run at all – they know there’s success to be had shutting down Bernard Foley, Beale and Israel Folau with a rush defence. Their key position depth isn’t brilliant (but neither is it for any of the Australian sides, to be fair). It wouldn’t take too many injuries to bring them back to earth.

No Fisher and Mowen, no Brumbies?
Maybe. Their breakdown will remain strong via the personnel involved, and new collisions coach Peter Ryan will continue their hard edge in defence. Stephen Moore is a very good leader and is a natural successor to Ben Mowen. The scrum should remain as it was last year, but their lineout could strike trouble with their multiple callers plan.

No Quade, no Reds?
A week ago, I would have said ‘absolutely’. Having now seen them play without Quade Cooper, and with Karmichael Hunt looking so composed and James O’Connor still to come into the side, my concerns have subsided. James Horwill and Will Genia look in really good form, too.

No Hodgo, no Force?
Hmmm, I fear this might be the case, and I’m more than a touch concerned about them, to be honest. Obviously, the faithful in the west will be sweating on this not being the case, but it will take a herculean start to the season from several of Chris Alcock, Angus Cottrell, and Brynard Stander. Maybe all of them. And then they’ll still have to score points…

What of the Rebels?
This has to be the year they start making strides, and with a young squad they can start building for the future. The sooner they can settle on their best backrow and midfield combinations – and I genuinely haven’t worked that out myself – the better.

Conference predictions
New Zealand: Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes, Highlanders, and Blues.
South Africa: Bulls, Sharks, a considerable margin, Lions, Stormers, daylight, Cheetahs.
Australia: Waratahs, Brumbies, Reds, Force, Rebels.

Overall standings
Ha, nice try…