The Sydney Autumn Carnival shifts to Rosehill this Saturday, where we will see several Group races, highlighted by a crack bunch of three-year-olds including Caulfield Guineas winner Shooting To Win, in the $200,000 Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m).
The Hobartville gets away at 4.15pm Sydney time and is the sixth event on the eight-race card.
It’s hard not to be impressed by the way Shooting To Win has come back for the Autumn. His exhibition gallops have been sharp, and his recent trial win at Randwick was scintillating, running awfully slick time for the 1000m.
He bumped into a wet track first-up last time in and failed badly, so that’s the query, but he is a lengths better horse now.
Still, with a run under his belt, I’m going with Kermadec. He was fantastic in the Eskimo Prince, sitting off the speed, then looming as the winner at 300 metres. His fitness eventually gave out, but he still attacked the line for fourth.
Any give in the ground looks perfect, he’s fitter and remains on his home track. Great each-way bet.
Meursault needed a confidence boost so John O’Shea sent him to run under the lights at Canterbury and he bolted in, winning by three, leading all the way. He proved in the Spring that he can be competitive against this class of horse, and he is rock hard fit as well as being high in confidence.
Selections
Kermadec (8) on top, to beat Shooting To Win (2), Meursault (10) and Hallowed Crown (3).
Some key Golden Slipper contenders will slog it out 40 minutes earlier in the first leg of the quaddie when they contest the $250,000 Group 2 Silver Slipper (1100m).
Headwater could not have been more impressive on debut at the Valley when leading throughout to win and win by a space, beating home Stoker, who has since won the Inglis Premier at Sandown.
He comes from Melbourne with a big reputation and takes on Sydney’s best, so it’ll be a good test, but he he looked very good in a trial on Tuesday.
Ottoman put up a huge effort to win on debut here in December, coming from near last and charging home down the outside to nail her rivals. A recent trial was very sharp, and she does look one of the better youngsters for Godolphin. Bred to handle the wet too, so keep an eye on market moves.
Voilier is a smart youngster for Gary Nickson who won on debut here in December before being tipped out. He was hard ridden in a recent trial win at Warwick Farm, but the good thing was that he found extra when asked, and that’s a great quality to have as a two-year-old heading towards the Slipper. He isn’t the best two-year-old, but he is one of the toughest.
Selections
Headwater (5) clearly on top, ahead of Ottoman (6), Voilier (4) and Holler (2), who did trial well.
Come 2.20pm some of the better mares racing at the moment will tune up for the Coolmore when they line up in the $175,000 Group 2 Millie Fox Stakes (1300m), which is race three.
I’m absolutely all over Avoid Lightning here to beat Catkins. She is a gun mare who hasn’t raced since winning the Group 3 Nivison at Randwick in October. Les Bridge has given her plenty of time to prepare for the Autumn, and she just looked awesome in her latest trial, which was at Randwick when running second to Kirramosa. She’s an absolute bomb fresh, loves the wet ground and won her only run here.
The weights scale does mean that Catkins will be very hard to beat, more so on reputation. After the run she had first-up in the Breeders Classic, I thought she was going to win a bit more easily, but she only just got there and had nothing left in the straight. She’ll get the wet track she desperately needs here, and does have the run under the belt.
She looks outclassed on form and looks terribly in at the weights, but the speed map does suggest that Mardi will get a very soft time in front, as she did here on January 31 when leading all the way to beat Adorabeel, who won seven days later to frank the form. Looks outclassed, but should lead comfortably and perhaps sneak a first-four spot.
Selections
Pretty keen on Avoid Lightning (3), to beat Catkins (1), Mardi (7) and Lilliburlero (4).
In other races on the program:
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I could be following a very dodgy weather app haha. But it's telling me that there will be thunderstorms tonight, so I'm doing my form on a soft5/soft6 surface. I agree with the Valley form comments. The track has played pretty ordinary this season, but Headwaters trial on Tuesday was very sharp.
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
Agree, looking forward to the Autumn, we are in for some great racing, with the hobartville a cracker. As above, like the look of Paceman, will be watching keenly. Hobartville is currently at 127%, not sure what is going on there, but will be a great race to watch. Not sure its a betting proposition, but also looking forward to seeing the Melbourne brigade come to town. I rate Merion and Chivalry, will see how they go Sat and hopefully they cross the border later in the Autumn. I do think Catkins has a great weight pull and will be hard to hold out again. I like Law Syd race 2, but not sure about $6.50 price... maybe. Does the weight over 1000m matter that much?
kv joef
Roar Guru
Interesting. 'Catkins on reputation'? Suppose … going on her last prep. where she won first-up beating My Sabeel, who went OK FU a week or so ago … then the 5YO mare was beaten 0.5 len by Arabian Gold 2up before going to Melb. and running into Sweet Idea and co. … twice. Anyway, a 4-start prep. that was OK I think. Interesting to note that her official rating has pretty well anchored on 110 for ages. 6YO old mare, Avoid Lightning’s rating has surged over her last 5 starts from a 101 to 108/109 under the care of Les Bridge, so she is in the hunt here and does receive 1.5 kg (3pts) benefit. Lilliburlero has promised more than having delivered not winning for a year although unlucky on occasions, but she is a good mare all the same. At the weights your argument for Avoid Lightning has merit but I think the race tactics may favour Waller’s grey. The Silver Slipper is a ripper race. I was impressed with Headwater at MV but find it interesting that Team Hawkes returned him to Sydney, deciding that the Blue Diamond might be coming too soon in his education and development – who knows? Anyway they are going to get a good look at him in this. See that Paceman hasn’t rated a mention above. Thought he was good at his first start and allowing Team Snowden like Tm.Hawkes, aren’t inclined to bust their youngsters too soon, I really look forward to his performance with some expectation. Actually, I think Tm.Snowden would be very happy with their babies. V.much like Pride of Dubai and I also think Wolf Cry has scope = whatever that means … just sounds knowledgable :) … what I really mean is = Wolf Cry gallops good but is still improving his skillset. Thought Rosehill R2 should teach us a bit … and as for the Hobartville … WHAT A RACE? The depth is incredible. Probably ranks as one of the best Horbartvilles ever. So in both NSW and Vic, the first shots of Autumn are being fired across the punters bow. Welcome to the Australian Autumn racing season it promises to be a beauty :) .
Bondy
Guest
It will be interesting with the 3 yr old's they all beat one another as spring horses , will Shooting to Win be the dominate three yr old this Autumn ? .
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
I'll be there quaffing free booze in the Winning Post Restaurant, so steering clear won't be an option!
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Weights again play in Catkins favour but she was nearly beaten by Lilliburlero last start if not for a masterful ride from Hugh Bowman. I do agree with the Valley form Ottoman for mine but who knows what will happen in Sydney?
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
If the rail is out again steer clear!
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Thanks mate - really enjoyed that. Not sure why you're doing the form for a wet track though? We've had a little rain in the last couple of days, and there is a "chance of showers" into the weekend, but I'd be very surprised if they're not racing on an ideal surface come Saturday...
Addington
Guest
Throw the Valley form out with the dish water Adam ......wev'e seen it all before ....Ottoman will give Headwater windburn on the way past him so tell him to wear plenty of sun screen. Clear Slipper fav on sat evening Ottoman $9.00 into $5.00 and can win the Slipper as well. Good preview on the other races though mate ....agree with you Catkins is vunerable ......but what a lovely broodmare she will make !