The Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m) was built up as a race between the proven champ Lankan Rupee and the new kid on the block, Deep Field.
In the end, class and the proven Group 1 performer rose to the occasion when Lankan Rupee, steered perfectly by Craig Newitt, dive bombed Deep Field at 250 metres and sprinted clear to score a most dominant win.
Brazen Beau stuck on very well for second and is right on target for the Newmarket Handicap (1200m). As for Deep Field, well it was his first serious crack as a racehorse against a proven champ, and he did do the donkey work. His run was commendable under the circumstances.
Wandjina sweated worse than a fat bloke a disco, he pulled his head off in the run, he was first up, but he was still too good for his rivals in the CS Hayes Stakes (1400m). He led all the way to narrowly fend off Disposition, who clearly headed Wandjina in the straight, but Ollie lifted the Gai Waterhouse runner to narrowly win.
Stratum Star had the dream run off the speed and stuck on well for third. I honestly can’t see how those behind the first two can turn the tables in the Australian Guineas (1600m). They were both first up and burnt the candle at both ends, so with natural improvement, they each should take some beating.
Her career highlight prior to Saturday was only a Benchmark 70 Handicap, but a strong tempo and a determined ‘Froggy’ Newitt saw Sweet And Speedy win The Vanity (1400m), and gave trainer Peter Moody the first three races on the program.
She sat out the back, like she did at Sandown, peeled out on the turn and was immediately under pressure and seemingly going nowhere. But as we know, Newitt can find something extra in a horse and he did so with this filly, who surged late and grabbed the Oaks winner Set Square late, who was fantastic first up.
The hot favourite Wawail could only manage third, and honestly, she had every chance. The first 800 metres was run in 50.27, so I can’t really offer an excuse. She had her chance. Fenway and Mossbeat were both luckless and should be forgiven.
Three things I learnt from Flemington
. Why aren’t we being critical of the Flemington track? For a while now, the inside has been off and barely any winners come there.
. Chivalry is not a horse. He is a cat.
. Deep Field won’t be winning any Group 1 WFA races.
We didn’t think we’d see a group of three-year-olds as good as the 1995-96 group when we had the likes of Octagonal, Saintly and Filante. Well, the 2014-15 crop are nearly there after a thrilling edition of the Hobartville Stakes (1400m), won by Hallowed Crown.
He who looked in trouble at the top of the straight when Hugh Bowman was forced to go back to the inside on the Golden Rose winner, and he looked gone 300 metres out as Sweynesse and Shooting To Win looked as though they were going to fight it out, but Bowman pulled the whip in the right hand and the horse just switched into another gear, grabbing Sweynesse in the last stride.
Shooting To Win ran fourth, but the big eye catcher was Kermadec. He is a big kid who has no idea what he is doing out on the race track, but once he puts it all together, he’ll be winning whatever he contests. On potential, he is the best three-year-old in Australia.
Headwater elevated himself straight to the top of betting for the Golden Slipper with an absolute caning in the Silver Slipper. Blake Shinn took the colt straight to the front, dictated (first 600 metres in 35.90) and just careered away from his rivals under very little riding from Shinn.
Voilier toughed it out very strongly for second while the Queensland visitor Mishani Honcho worked home well for third on the best part of the track ahead of Ottoman, who weakened late. Do I want to take $4.60 for Headwater? Nope, not yet anyway. I want to see Vancouver and Exosphere again.
Catkins, aided by a beautiful ride from Hugh Bowman, gave trainer Chris Waller his fourth win in the Millie Fox Stakes when the bonny grey mare sat off the speed and surged late to grab Plucky Belle close to home. Avoid Lightning ran a strong third considering she was ridden a touch more forward than usual.
The rain-affected track played into the hands of Catkins here, as well as the gun run again, yet, like the Breeders Classic win, she only just got there. When you win, margins don’t matter, but I am just not convinced that she’ll pick up a Group 1 during the Autumn. The Tatt’s Tiara during the Brisbane Winter Carnival looks her Group 1.
Three things I learnt from Rosehill
. Headwater, at the moment, is the best two-year-old in Australia.
. Catkins is not the same horse she was 12-18 months ago.
. Burbero can’t run beyond 1600m.
Alice
Guest
Yep betting based on trial form is an absolute mug's game. Hallowed Crown's trial was fairly poor, didn't stop him from winning, and Brazen Beau was thumped by a group of midweekers but he still found enough to beat Deep Field. Meanwhile you get a lot of Waterhouse horses trialling like superstars but struggling to win at the provincials. I wouldn't write off BB as second class though, he improves from his first up runs and he's traditionally better over 1200m anyway, plus I think Lankan Rupee hit new heights with this run.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Sorry, messed tit up a little Brazen Bay would get 4kg from LR, 2kg from Terra and 1kg from Chau and another 1.5kg back to DF (5.5 kgs from LR).
pauliewalnuts
Guest
Agree with all of that. Personally I saw nothing particularly impressive in Deep Field's prior outings, and for those who wish to get excited about early morning jump outs, they have the opportunity to chase their money on Lord of the Sky this week in the Oakleigh Plate. Spectacular over 800m yesterday. Historically, 3L in a Lightning is a smashing, and as good as the Lankan is that puts DF and BB notch below even the second tier sprinters (eg Buffering and go). Either are going to have to be fortunate or very well placed to win at Group1 IMO.
kv joef
Roar Guru
No not dismissed yet James ... a friend asked what being choked-down meant and for those not familiar with the jargon - it indicates the long equine tongue folding back in the mouth and while horses primarily breathe through their nose it is still a terrifying experience for them. Like shoving a tennis-ball in someone's mouth and telling them to go for a quick sprint ... not likely :) . You could see Hugh getting into him before straightening and knew something was up. I'm sure Tm Snowden were collectively holding their breath fearing the worst but luckily it seems, they got the horse back in one piece. In the right hands to help the youngster get over the trauma.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Estimate is pretty good as usual Bondy. If they were weighted to their current OTRs which you would expectc ... LR is top weight, 2kg back to Terravista, Chau is a further 1kg back and then 2kg to Deep Field and Brazen Bay. You can see why Joe Pride didn't want to give the handicapper another look at his horse. That weight spread opens the race up as it should. As you have said ... one cracking race.
Tim
Guest
Is it better than pierro, all too hard, super cool, fiveandahalfstar etc?
Alice
Guest
A friend of mine who produces his own ratings showed me that, against appearances, Deep Field had not significantly improved from his 10-length debut win to his Group 2--i.e he rated about 119 in his first win and something like 121 in his last. From this he concluded that Deep Field did not have the scope to find the ten-plus rating points needed to collar LR and he bet accordingly. Now I've always been a bit suspicious of number magic but it's fascinating to see how dead-on he turned out to be. Moreover, I've been going over the old analysis threads before the race and most people seemed to understand that Deep Field would need to find at least three lengths on his form to challenge Lankan, yet tipped DF anyway and offering no explanation as to where he would pull those three lengths from. So it's really a case of the heart vs the head and most people chose the romance. On paper it was no contest but everyone wanted to believe the next Black Caviar had turned up, plus a few punters probably got scorched by Lankan during the spring.
Bondy
Guest
kv I think the 3 yr olds can still beat one another if you even have a look at Scissor Kick, deep without cover and checked near the line wasn't beaten far, if he gets a smother and out and unleashed he'll make a finish interesting . I wouldn't be taking anything shorter 4's- $5 or there a bouts with these 3 yr old's racing one another . Lan Rup deserved his win no doubt but Deep Field shouldn't have been beaten that far . Also I think Braz B needs around 3 kilos weight in turn around to win the Newmarket on Lan Rup , Lan Rup will improve and was fresh and he's older also throw in Terravista and Chautauqua , should be a cracking race ....
Alice
Guest
You think Headwater is a better horse than Fontiton? I'm not so sure.
pauliewalnuts
Guest
Actually they ran about 10L faster than the Debonair. Stratum Star was perhaps entitled to finish it off a little better, but I think the placegetters are pretty smart.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Chivalry just does that every start. He is a milk drinker
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
From what I heard of paceman, they will put a tongue tie on him next start to help his breathing. He wasn't blowing in the slightest when he came back to the yard. Wouldn't dismiss him yet!
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
To be fair on Chivalry and Merion et al, the swoopers had no hope in that race as they walked up front. Way to harsh to sack him on that performance.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Good summation Adam although i'm not sure what you've learned is going to benefit you. anyway, aren't we disgruntled today after a Saturday’s great racing. Being a bit harsh on Deep Field. Looked at the BC Lightning a couple of times and he still has a couple of lengths improvement in him. That doesn’t mean he can beat the big 3 BUT he’ll give the rest whiplash. The way Deep Field punctured is usually a lack of peak fitness not lack of attitude. They did run a 56s. He has always reminded me of his old-man Northern Meteor, incredibly high cruising speed and not a lot of kick … but you still got to catch him. That’s one of the reasons GaiW started to train NMeteor for a mile. He only got beat 2.5L in a good George Ryder field at his first attempt. The theory is with that type of horse, over 1400/1600 they just jog at the tempo for most of the trip before accelerating to a his normal speed which is usually too fast for the others at the longer trip. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him comeback to Sydney to get toughened up a bit … or maybe they might change their mind about the Oakleigh Plate – perfect wind’er for him after-all he finished 3rd in the BCL with handicappers behind him so he should be handicapped off his black-type form and not his potential. Thought Brazen Bay was terrific. The horse has done me a few favours in the past without exciting me but after Sat performance I’m now a certified fan. Actually the race was a 101 on how splits (sectionals) can give a false impression of a finish. If you look at the 200m, Williams was at BznBay and he was busting it all to stay with two dynamos and when they bothed kicked he kept hammering … then Deep Field punctured and he still kept going to get past him = a damned good little hero, I reckon. I was mystified with the run of Paceman and wasn’t surprised to learn he had choked down. It was pretty obvious something happened from the turn. I quite like this bunch of 3 yrolds. Occ’s mob were V.V.V. special and I reckon Pierro and All To Hard were pretty nice which was also Lankan Rupee’s year. I won’t be surprised if a few of these youngsters make their presence felt in open aged G1’s ...
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
It's amazing how these spruik horses generate so much momentum. Every man and his dog wanted to tell me before the race that Deep Field was destined for greatness because... well, just because. Meanwhile, you had Lankan Rupee - multiple G1 winner, multiple WFA winner, multiple Flemington winner - drifting in the market. It all seemed a little strange, and so it proved!
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Happy to be proven wrong. But this crop have the potential to have their greatness aura.
teamtoronto
Guest
thanks for the summary
theJudge
Guest
This year's 3yos are average at best! An even bunch, and are yet to challenge the older horses.....
Addington
Guest
Good wrap Adam ,,,,... you nailed the Silver Slipper along with 33,678 other punters that have VERY fat wallets on monday morning after taking the 5's the 4's and the 3's about him....... the other thing you learned (but didn't mention) was that Ottoman picked up her toys and slinked off home!! ...... and when discussing her Slipper aspirations with John O'Shea he said ....' Sorry Otto the only slipper you will be contemplating this year is the fluffy one outside your stall full of milk'.
Scuba
Guest
By this time of year the 95/96 3yo crop had won the Cox Plate and run 2nd in the Melbourne Cup. This crop has done nothing comparable. They may get there but at the moment you're mistaking closeness for greatness.