Poor old St Kilda. You have to feel for their fans. As close as you can possibly get to tasting premiership glory in 2010 without succeeding, only to be left with a bitter aftertaste in the form of plummeting to the foot of the ladder less than half a decade later.
And they’ll be anchored there for at least another year yet.
2014 started brightly enough, with three wins from their first five games. This begat only one more win from their next seventeen matches to round out the year.
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Only four wins for the season. Comfortably the worst percentage. Last place on the ladder.
It’s hard to forsee much better this season.
Let’s have a look at a predicted best 25:
B: J.Geary L.Delaney H.Goddard
HB: S.Dempster S.Fisher S.Savage
C: L.Montagna J.Steven J.Newnes
HF: J.Billings N.Riewoldt T.Curren
F: E.Templeton P.McCartin T.Membrey
Foll: T.Hickey L.Dunstan D.Armitage
Int: C.Shenton F.Ray S.Gilbert B.Acres
Em: B.Longer M.Weller J.Bruce
The first thing we notice is both how old and how young this side is.
The youth is evident with eight players having played no more than 16 career games entering 2015. Another four have played less than 50. Thus, over half the side can be categorised as inexperienced, and will be inconsistent in output.
At the other end of the spectrum are the veterans, led by Nick Riewoldt, a champion in any generation, along with Leigh Montagna, Sam Fisher, Sean Dempster, Sam Gilbert and Farren Ray. No one could possibly suggest their best football is in front of them.
Montagna’s output diminished significantly last year, becoming too easy to tag as he appeared to lose interest in fighting a losing cause. Fisher and Gilbert have missed far more games than they’ve played in the last two seasons. The former is still one of the best readers of the play in the game, while the latter causes St Kilda supporters to reach for the heart pills every time he gets the ball. Dempster and Ray will always be solid citizens.
The middle band of only four players is led by Jack Steven, a very good footballer who will bounce back from an underwhelming and injury-affected 2014. Jarryn Geary, David Armitage and Shane Savage are good foot soldiers, although Savage may have enough upside to become a little more.
Coach Alan Richardson will continue to pump games into the youth, and they’ll provide enough highlights to keep the fans happy, as we saw from Jack Billings, Luke Dunstan, and even Eli Templeton and Blake Acres with only nine matches between them.
Priorities change when barracking for a struggling team. Wins are counted on one hand, and celebrated with vigour, but it’s the small mercies along the way that keep long-term hope alive. Saints fans are going to need it.
St Kilda won’t be playing finals this year, or any time before 2020, but improvement can still happen, and progress can still be made. Which is a win in and of itself.
Predicted ladder spread: 16th-18th.
Predicted finish: 18th.
AB
Guest
I really do feel sorry for Saints fans. They got oh-so-close in both 2009 and 2010, only to plummet down the ladder at a rate unmatched by any other top team in recent years. Talk about terminal velocity. Contrast them with Geelong, who've stayed very competitive even as their era of greatness has ended. Or Collingwood, who stayed competitive for at least a couple of years after their peak. The Saints also had some great sides in the 1990s - they were the hottest of red hot favorites going into the 1997 Grand Final against Adelaide, but somehow contrived to lose against a team that had barely scraped into the finals. As a Hawthorn supporter who's watched my own team win 10 Grand Finals in the past 40 years, St Kilda reminds me never to take things for granted. I do hope the Saints can climb back up the ladder sooner rather than later. And for 2015, I hope they at least manage a couple of big upsets, like the belting they gave Freo last year.
jax
Guest
Good points all-round. During the lean years the Tiges & Dees stagnated due to a blend of poor recruiting, poor development and coaching changeovers just to name a few. The Dees have certainly had more challenges than the Tiges. Brisbane went all-in on an aggressive flag tilt that backfired and set them back for years. If the Saints are to play finals before 2020 a lot of things will have to go right for them and I hope that they do. They seem to be making the right moves and I hope that continues.
jax
Guest
I would have liked to see them win one too. Probably the one against the Cats in '09. I don't like the Pies but I was glad that Mick got a flag out of them before Eddie moved him on. My respect for Riewoldt grew a few notches last year. To lead the team the way that he did, after having given so much and knowing that he may never play another final again was incredible. Sincerest condolences to the Riewoldt family at this difficult time.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Measured comments David. Although we should remember that Melbourne haven't finished outside the bottom five for eight years. Richmond had a twelve year wait for finals after 2001. It's already been five years for Brisbane, although they have some chance this season. But you're probably right, I might be being a bit harsh with 2020. Development is the main aim, as you say, and I think we'll see some this year.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I think 16th is achievable this year Jason, but from there I think you might be dreaming with that quick acceleration up the ladder! There's enough talent there to see improvement year on year from now on.
David
Guest
Good piece Cameron, and I certainly agree 2015 will be a tough year for STK and I'd expect 4-6 wins. However I do think it is difficult to predict what will happen in and beyond 2016 I understand Riewoldt, Montagna, Fisher, Dempster have all got about 2 maybe 3 seasons in them but even when they do go younger players step up and should fill the shoes by that time. With the 2016 and the finals series is 18months away and the 2017 finals is obviously another 12 months after... I'm not saying the Saints will be there but how can we all write them off from not being there? Development for them is there main objective and if all goes well for them in the next 12-24months we may see a finals appearance sooner than we can imagine. My final point is to say STK won't be playing finals "any time soon" I think remember that say 18-30months can be an eternity for football and a lot can change. Very looking forward to the your next few pieces...
Jason K
Guest
St. Kilda are probably not too worried about 2016 ladder outcomes, but rather want to see things take shape such that they are back in contention by 2018. That being said, I can't see them finishing dead last this year. I place them third from the bottom in 2015; sixth from the bottom in 2016; top 8 in 2017; and top 4 in 2018. A guy can dream....
Jason K
Guest
I feel that, bro. Heartbreaking. But you're right, like a Mick Jagger/Peter Tosh duet, "keep on walking, don't look back." Road to 2018 baby!
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
God, how I wished the Saints had won that one against Collingwood. For the club & their supporters obviously, but for others as well. Anyways, those days are gone, & as John Lee Hooker sang; 'Don't look back'.
Rose85
Guest
I can't believe Riewoldt is clearly their best and most reliable player come 2015. Personally he is my favourite player of the last 10 years but it is a little worrying how important he is and his age. Bar number 1 pick McCartin their is nothing to look forward to with that list. The 2020 finals comment is fair. The Suns, Giants and Dogs should be permanent fixtures by then. Throw in the Tigers on top, Pies and who knows maybe the Demons up there, it doesn't leave much hope for the Saints. I like Richardson as he reminds me of a mix between Clarkson and Lyon in his press conferences. Maybe he is the key in a quick turnaround! But I'm being very generous as I have a lot of friends that support them.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, there's not a lot there to trade with to get Cameron, Me Too, and I don't see them giving up any top twenty draft picks. I can't see anything in Hickey or Longer to suggest they'll ever provide you much up forward.
Coach
Guest
The Saints have too much upside in their youth and in their coaching department, no way known they'll miss finals until 2020. Bad call.
Me Too
Guest
my info was Cameron was a very likely trade deal this year - then the Patton injury and the Boyd trade occurred and suddenly Cameron looks very unaffordable - hence the drafting of McCartin at no. 1. I'm hopeful we can still get the Cameron deal done, but we have no trade bait, aside from a likely top draft pick, and the Giants will offer everything, including the kitchen sink, to keep him. Agree with sentiments above - defence is a high priority. As for the ruck - we have two potentially very good ruckmen with a third likely to become better known during the NAB cup - if one of them can prove himself as a good forward option we are fine on that front.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Excellent post Sausages, it's always good to hear from the avid fans of a team to get their take. It's clear that you've got long term hope, you can deal with the disappointment using the words of Taylor Swift, to "shake it off". There'll obviously be a lot of changes to the side as the year goes on, and we never know who is going to jump out of the pack. I wonder if Richardson has five or six youngsters that he's going to stick with no matter what because he has faith in them. I look forward to keeping an eye on the skills of Webster after your glowing endorsement.
Sausages
Guest
As an avid Saints man I can't say that there's too much wrong with your article. There are lean years ahead. I think we can probably get back in the eight before 2020 but that remains to be seen. Would argue Armitage is more than a foot soldier, he is a contested footy beast, very underrated by many. Seb Ross gets a game ahead of Curren too and give me Jimmy Webster (he is going to be something special) over Shenton thanks. We need our outside mids to develop, Billings, Acres to add more polish and help Steven and Newnes with the run and carry (Webster to also add something here...his foot will be spoken about as a weapon in years to come), to compliment the grunt Armitage, Ross and Dunstan will provide. Last thing....Gods I hope McCartin ends up as influential as the last forward we drafted at no. 1!!
Cameron Rose
Expert
As long as supporters can see that there is hope in the future, they're fine. And I think the Saints kids will show enough spark for that to be the case.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I know the popular theory suggests a heap of dead wood playing for St Kilda in those years, but I don't think there was as much as people like to remember. Obviously the top end was extreme quality, but they had decent players largely across the board.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I will confess to not quite buying into the positivity that the Blues are spreading about themselves, but still think they'll have the Saints covered. I'm sure Macca will appear once my Carlton piece comes around, and I'm equally certain that he won't be happy about where I have them...
Rob
Guest
Nice article Rosey, I really feel for St Kilda fans, whilst there's going to be some good talent on show in a few years it looks pretty painful near term...
Don Freo
Guest
Nah...I predicted that on the other thread long before Macca started nibbling. It is simply my belief. I'd prefer to not have constant phone alerts only to find it is Macca demanding, "proof"