Getting the timing right for two-year-olds

It’s that time of year again when the babies of the horse racing scene in Australia strut their stuff, heading toward the big Group 1 features in Melbourne and Sydney.

Saturday sees the 44th running of the Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield, which is the elite two-year-old race in Victoria.

So there is no better time to assess the better chances going into that race, and look toward the Golden Slipper Stakes in Sydney in three weeks’ time.

Only one horse has managed to complete the double in the last 25 years, and that was Sepoy in 2011. But we may have a likely candidate in 2015.

My policy with two-year-olds has always been to look at their ability to run fast time, regardless of how big a margin they have won by. Just an overall time figure is not adequate enough though. I like to see how the time they ran compares to that of older horses on the same day, at the same distance, and at the same track, with at least a fast last 600 metre sectional to frank the overall time.

This methodology doesn’t bear fruit every two-year-old season, and wet tracks in Sydney often derail the theory on Slipper day, but it has earmarked the last four Blue Diamond Stakes winners, and has an excellent chance of doing so this year.

It’s a good place to start my summary of the fastest two-year-olds so far this season.

Fontiton is a filly that is going to start short-odds favourite on Saturday, and she clearly deserves that billing. On debut she won over 1000 metres at Moonee Valley by a massive six length margin, stopping the clock at 58.29. The next race on the card was an open class event won at the same distance by Eight Bills, who clocked 58.23. For an early season two-year-old to get so close to beating the time of decent older horses is just about unheard of, and not only that, her last 600 metres in that race eclipsed that of Eight Bills by half a second.

She resumed in January in a workmanlike performance to win at Sandown, conceding weight to her female rivals. Nothing spectacular about her time there, but second up in the Fillies Prelude at Caulfield she was back to her brilliant best (at level weights), running 0.83 seconds faster than the colts and geldings division.

It’s hard to see anything she beat that day turning the tables on her, and she will benefit from a 2 kilogram weight pull on the colts which probably means she will have a further edge on any male two-year-old that ran in the Prelude two weeks ago. It may be just a matter of her running the 1200m to win on Saturday, and there is no indication, visually or breeding wise, to suggest she won’t.

Stoker is a gelding flying a bit below the radar. He ran second to Headwater on debut at Moonee Valley, which has now proved to be strong form. There was nothing special about the time that day, and like Fontiton, he didn’t set the world on fire at his second start in a narrow defeat. Blinkers were applied at his third start though and he won at Sandown over 1000 metres running 56.28 with a last 600 metres of 32.78. That compares very favourably with four-year-old mare Runway Star, who ran 56.27 (32.69) in a hot speed race.

He too has to prove himself at 1200 metres, but he didn’t run in the colts and geldings prelude, so there is and x-factor about him at double figure odds on Saturday.

Holler ran 1.02.65 over 1100 metres on debut, which is about as good a time as a two-year-old has ever run in this country. I’m a little wary of the figures recorded because there was no significant margin between the placegetters, and it was a day where fast times were recorded in all races.

There was no other race at 1100 metres that day either, but his time was still way above average for a two-year-old compared to the times the older horses recorded at different distances on the day.

Fireworks is a Sydney filly being prepared for the Golden Slipper. She placed third on debut behind Holler, missing the start slightly and getting a mile back in the field. She finished the race off resolutely in the straight to get to within two lengths of the winner, and the consensus of opinion was that she would have won the race but for her tardiness early.

She then went to Rosehill over 1100 metres again in the Widden Stakes for fillies, this time on a Slow track, and just managed to win after getting well back again. Her time there was superior to that of the highly regarded Vancouver in the Colts race, both overall and sectionally, so she is definitely one worthy of consideration in a few weeks’ time.

Exosphere is in the strong Godolphin stable (as is Holler) and failed to flatter on debut at Rosehill in November as an odds-on favourite. He resumed at Kembla Grange on February 14 with a gear change (cross over noseband on) on a Slow track, this time justifying the early opinion and putting a 4.5 length margin on his his stablemate Mogador, who actually started as favourite.

He ran 58 seconds flat there with a last 600 metres of 33.45. That beat the three-year-old Maiden (subsequent race) by 1.3 seconds, which is very significant. His last 600 metres of 33.45 eclipsed the 35.06 posted by the older horses too.

The fact that Exosphere came from last to run his last 600 metres that quickly adds further merit to the win. Had he been given a soft lead to run that sectional it would be a lot less impressive. It’s not hard to see why he is being kept safe in early Golden Slipper markets.

English has barely rated a mention for the Golden Slipper, and I can’t even see her in the betting market at present. She was mentioned in a Tweet this morning though as being prepared for the race, and I hope that is the case. She is a filly in the Gai Waterhouse stable, and her debut effort at Kembla Grange almost mirrors the performance of Exosphere, also coming from last on the turn to win by a comfortable 3.5 lengths.

Her time on a Good surface was 57.58, with a last 600 metres of 33.21, again a stunning sectional, given her rearward position. That compared very favourably to that of the older horses that won a maiden in 57.60 (33.88).

I don’t actually have the two favourites, Headwater and Vancouver, even in the reckoning yet (on a times basis), but there is still plenty of time before Golden Slipper day, and either could yet post something significant.

After the Blue Diamond, and Sydney two-year-old racing on the weekend, there may be another contender or two that also puts itself in the picture.