Blue Diamond Stakes Day is one of Melbourne’s best Autumn racedays. Nine races, including the $1 million Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) highlight what should be a fabulous day of racing.
I’ll concentrate on the feature first, which is race eight and is due to run at 5.50pm Melbourne time.
Blue Diamond Stakes
The last four favourites have won the race, and the last two winners have come outside Victoria.
I’m really keen here on Sampeah. His prelude run was unbelievable. He looked completely lost around Caulfield and was a clear last at the top of the straight, but he picked up and absolutely savaged the line to run third to Of The Brave.
Sampeah is clearly the best colt in the race, and he represents the value ahead of Fontiton, so I’ll go with him given he does map well outside Lake Geneva, so hopefully he can get the drag over.
Fontiton is the best filly in the race, perhaps the best horse. She was awesome in winning the Fillies Prelude, sitting off a strong speed, coming off the bit on the turn, but surged late and was very powerful through the line. The only negative I have with her is last year Rubick had a hard run in the prelude and failed in the big one. Nonetheless, she’ll be hard to beat.
Lake Geneva went enormous on debut at Rosehill in the Widden when second to Fireworks after sitting three deep no cover. I put her into my blackbook then, and then again after an impressive jump out win last Friday at Flemington.
Lacks the race-day experience, but certainly has the ability and scope to be a threat here.
Selections
Sampeah (5) on top, ahead of Fontiton (8), Lake Geneva (13) and Stoker (1).
Oakleigh Plate
A crack bunch of sprinters have been assembled for the $400,000 Group l Oakleigh Plate (1100), due to go at 5.15pm Melbourne time as the seventh event on the card.
I’m putting Vain Queen on top. She produced a stunning win down the Flemington straight on Oaks Day when winning the Mumm. She was then spelled, and produced a brilliant jump out at Caulfield recently behind Lankan Rupee, and we know what he did in the Lightning.
This mare was due to run in the Lightning, and she was well backed all in but didn’t accept. Fast run 1100m ridden off the speed should suit her perfectly here.
Earthquake gets the lovely weight pull as a three-year-old filly who is tuned right up for a first up Group 1 assignment after two slick trial wins at Cranbourne, and she was made a black booker from the February 9 trial, where she travelled very well on speed and drew clear late under no pressure. Unbeaten at Caulfield and flies fresh.
Shamal Wind was given a peach ride by Dwayne Dunn to win the Adams Stakes first up on Australia Day. Didn’t beat much, but the manner in which she did it was very impressive. Has been freshened up and is ready to go for this after a slick jump out win at Sandown last Tuesday. She ran a fair seventh to Lankan Rupee in this race last year, but she is going much better now.
Selections
Vain Queen (6) clearly, ahead of Earthquake (16), Shamal Wind (5) and A Time For Julia (9).
Futurity Stakes
The third Group 1 for the afternoon at Caulfield is race five, the $400,000 Futurity Stakes (1400m), due to go at 3.55pm Melbourne Time.
Looks pretty simple here – Dissident just wins. He was given the run of the race in the Orr and despite wobbling on the turn he sprinted brilliantly over the concluding stages and put the race away very quickly. Weight-for-age Group 1 1400m at Caulfield, third up… he ticks all the boxes. He’ll be short, but he’ll be winning.
Suavito resumes here for Nigel Blackiston. Interesting to see that she resumes in Group 1 and not the softer option of the mares race, but Blackiston has said during the week that less weight on the mare under the WFA scale compared to handicap conditions of the mares would be more beneficial first up. She probably lacks the killer punch to win an Open Group l at WFA, but her jump outs have been very sharp and she is wound up enough to run a beauty fresh.
Very interested to see how Guest Of Honour goes. Formerly with Marco Botti and now with the low-flying David Hayes and Tom Dabernig stable. He had two runs for Botti during the Spring for an eye-catching ninth in the Toorak before injuring himself in the Cox Plate.
Hasn’t won under a mile, but his jump out effort last Friday at Flemington was very sharp and his form in Europe does read pretty well. Keen to see the market moves with this bloke.
Selections
Dissident (1) the one to beat by a fair margin, over Suavito (8), Guest Of Honour (6) and Driefontein (7).
The other key race comes 40 minutes after the Futurity, the $200,000 Group 2 Peter Young Stakes (1800m). Two of the last three winners of this race had their previous start in the Melbourne Cup, so I’m clearly putting Protectionist on top. His Melbourne Cup win was very high rating, and on face value it was one of the most devastating wins in the history of the race that stops a nation.
His Newcastle trial was sharp and he handled Caulfield beautifully when a close fourth in the Herbert Power in the Spring. Just looks the winner here.
The Orr was dominated by those on speed, but the clear best of the back markers was Spillway, who worked home strongly against the pattern. Looks suited up to 1800m and ran an absolute ripper second up last time in when a close fourth to Dissident in the Makybe Diva. Hard to beat with the fitness edge.
Real Love was another that wasn’t suited by the slow speed in the Orr, but her closing sectionals were one of the best in the race. Up to 1800m looks much more better, and her Perth Cup win was extraordinary two starts ago, so she should be a definite improver as she heads towards the Australian Cup.
Selections
Just looks a lovely race for Protectionist (1), ahead of Spillway (12), Real Love (13) and Happy Trails (2).
In other races on the program:
Casper
Guest
Well Adam & respondents, as always Oakleigh Plate day throws up a few surprises and confirms a few form lines. I stand corrected on the SA form line, but it's been inconsistent over the years. Adam, in hindsight you were probably guilty of preferring the run of the back-marker out of the Of the Brave race and that's something we all come into at times. Also, Dissident is one of those horses I can't fall in love with & you probably were smarter with Suavito than me with Bull Point in there. I was happy that Rommel lived up to my wrap and pleased that Alpine Eagle aimed up, he's definitely a good prospect so i hope they take their time and don't try to rush him. Fontein Rubywould have got me the first four, but that's life History shows you never back anything under $10 in the plate and that was proven again. UTL was a bit stiff at $17 so that was a very good effort JH. Overall, the group had it worked out reasonably if going wide in the market & look forward to the more reliable Flemington form.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
True the late spring was dominated by the South Australians! Always some quality looks around the tracks, I like the look of the Moody double.
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
You are doing well if you can tip a winner in the Oakleigh plate with any confidence. Need to do some more analysis but what are your thoughts on under the Louvre at good odds? Might be a bit short for him but he can certainly motor. I saw he posted 11.87 closing split in a 1,400m race and carrying 56.5kgs. Drops to 52.5kg for this. He ran 11.08 at MV against Trust in a gust but they walked that initally. I think Flamberge ran 11.44s last start which is probably the benchmark. Vain Queen also def capable of fast sectionals. UTL now a 4yo has form around Lucky Hussler and Trust in a Gust, loves Caulfield and flies fresh. At $21 I dare say he is over the odds...
andrew
Guest
casper i hope there are doubters on alpine eagle as we may well a price. must have a short memory about how well the adellaide form held up last spring. huckelbuck twice, the messina nymph, lord aspen, held hostage. could argue happy trials and boristar too. anyway, i wont be jumping off. not sure how one could rate bull point any hope, dissident gave it windburn in the rupert clarke last spring and now meets its 5kgs better for doing so coming off a last start win this track/trip - bull point was plain 1st up. point being, even if he runs to his best its well below dissident. a couple of one-out legs to round out the early quad for mine. armada, bonaria early the day for me. the obvious 2 run the quin in the blue diamond (sometimes picking the quin is easier than picking the winner). moody will train the winners of the 3rd and 4th at yarra valley. probably short, but low risk. over in adl, live for today looks very well graded by DK weir with 52kgs off some good melb form. brimvari prince is going super and can win the 6th. free the wind finally draws a gate and is bursting to win a race - top each value bet for the day.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Nice preview Adam. Hi Casper. Re Alpine Eagle I have had him in my Blackbook since the time he ran on debut. Only the one failure (if you can call a placing a failure) in Sydney on a Heavy track and at least he has the experience of some travelling.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Don't rule out Rule Of Smoke. She is very smart and is the one on the up.
Casper
Guest
The only thing that stops me plonking on Alpine Eagle is that history proves Adelaide form is a shocking guide to the Melbourne classicsHis last win, from well back in the field, plus his breeding suggests he's going to be hard to beat in anything up to and including the Derby but that Adelaide niggle worries me. Were the ones he beat a bunch of scrubbers? I liked the look of Fast Cash last preparation & 1200m suits him, but Rommel beat Disposition at 1400m in Perth while Armada has that Brazen Beau Coolmore form last time in and looks an improver. Fontein Ruby looks a class above them in the Angus Armanasco having to give only 3.5kg to the bottom weighted fillies. She's won $760k to $30k by Bottle of Smoke & city form generally outweighs the provincials. Sabatini & Thinking of You have the carnival form around good horses and we shouldn't get carried away with wins at Echuca until they prove themselves in town. Bull Point in the Futurity had WFA form around Trust in Gust and Dissident at 1400m in the spring so he looks a good one to tie up with the favourite.