A ladder pool prediction (part II)

Following on from this week’s part I, in which looked at my prediction of the lower pool of six clubs in the AFL in 2015, is today’s look at the middle pool.

This pool has the greatest likelihood for uncertainty given the real contention for spots in this year’s finals series. As the bottom pool showed, teams that are currently thinking finals are going to end up occupying a bottom six position.

I consider these next six teams all capable of playing finals, but only two spots are up for grabs.

Tradition generally dictates that a preliminary final team from the previous season does suffer a stumble in the subsequent season. Given last year was the first time in seven years that the AFL had a semi final upset, it could be those semi final winners are most at risk.

Digging deeper, North Melbourne probably have the biggest concerns by virtue of a more difficult draw and a tough pre-season which has seen a number of key personnel injured.

Not enough is made of teams suffering from underdone pre-seasons. Every year great teams are relegated to good because of early injuries and good teams are relegated to average because of the same reason.

Whether you believe North Melbourne has a great or good list probably dictates on whether you think they can overcome the odds for another finals berth. The slide could be steep meaning finals are missed, or could be minimal making them a dangerous side in a 2015 finals series.

Both expansion clubs have flagged finals expectations for the first time with the Gold Coast via their chairman being the most outspoken to play finals.

Indeed, natural progression has seen the club improve and progress with each passing year and this continued path would likely lead to a finals berth.

However as with most clubs in the finals contending range there are red flags that could see the team drop to the bottom half of the ladder.

This is still very much a team that is dominated by one player and if they were not to get a full season from that one man, the challenge of finals is vastly greater.

On top with a new coach coming in, there has been a need for the first time for this young group to change their game plan and what had become their well known style. How the team adjusts will be telling for the finals reach of the Suns.

The second expansion club GWS is not as certain about their 2015 finals chances, but given the additions to this list over the past two seasons, this side has a finals feel about it. If they can get improvement and career best seasons from the youth.

While the simple analysis is to compare how they stack up against their new franchise rival, the reality is that this is a team that has been constructed very differently.

Instead of relying on a few core pieces, GWS have built a team of role players and now have a strong best 22 made up of pieces that seemingly can fit together to create a winning team.

The real questions on GWS are how quickly the youth develops and handles the long season and whether they have the depth to make a finals run. The answers will dictate whether they can for the first time leapfrog their northern rival.

While these two forced rivals are likely to be mid-table, battles between two traditional rivals could decide finals contenders from also rans. Both Carlton and Collingwood endured disastrous 2014 campaigns and have few neutral fans talking about finals in 2015. But both have the capabilities to play finals if things go right. Should things go wrong, the lower half of the ladder again awaits.

It was controversial, but the reality was that Carlton were a semi final team some 18 months ago. The team has changed over that 18 months, but again, the reality is that the team has improved for the better for the way that Mick Malthouse wants to coach and play.

One of the key developments for Carlton over the past tough 18 month stretch is that the club has unearthed some important role players. The team still relies on star output, but at least they know that other names can make an impact in any given game.

As much as both clubs would hate to admit it, Collingwood are in a very similar position to Carlton in that they have endured a tough 18 months. However, that time has allowed the club to build a team that the coach wants. Results are going to be slowly expected from this point on.

With really four top ten draft picks added to this year’s squad, Collingwood are in a nice position to add to the depth of the club. Combining this with some additions over the off-season and this is a very different team to 2014 and for that reason comparisons between the two seem mute.

A fast start is pivotal, but the dim light of finals is lit heading into 2015.

As for the final club in the middle six, keeping with the theme of writing off Geelong, write Geelong off.

This of course is a choice fraught with peril. This is a team and club that has defied the critics and expectations for the past five years. The experts keep saying one day and Geelong keep proving it wrong. Maybe this is the year that changes.

The talk is about an ageing list but it could be that 2015 is the bigger picture year for Geelong. They will play a role in next year’s free agency and the team could look very different in 2016. For that reason a lull season in 2015 wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing if it meant grabbing a couple of top picks as well as top recruits.

Indeed Geelong could be looking at this year as another year in the development of the next wave of Cats. Unlike past seasons though where the veterans have still led from the front, Geelong may take the step of handing the key moments to the youth.

That could lead to short term losses but open up a lot of long term gains. This Geelong team has surprised before, they could do it again, but on the eve of the season write them off.

At your peril.

Stay tuned later this week for the reasoning behind the top pool of ladder predictions.