2015 Blue Diamond Stakes: An historical perspective

Victoria’s premier two-year-old race, the Blue Diamond Stakes, was first run in 1971, which makes 2015 the 45th edition.

It has been won by some exceptional racehorses in the past with Manikato probably the most notable.

The great TJ Smith filly Bounding Away completed the Blue Diamond/Golden Slipper double in 1986, as did the Darley owned Sepoy in 2011.

Other notables include Redoute’s Choice in 1999, and Bel Esprit in 2002. The latter perhaps most famous for being the sire of the great Black Caviar, and the former as one of the great two-year-old sires of the new millennium.

Dwayne Dunn is the most successful jockey in recent times, with a staggering four wins in succession between 2005 and 2008, a feat made all the more remarkable at odds of $26, $17, $8 and $13. The last three of those were for David Hayes, who is the most successful trainer with 5 winners in the last 24 years.

Below are the last 12 winners of the event, followed by gender (sex), sire, barrier, form figures last three starts (where applicable), field positions during race (start, 800m, turn) and starting odds:

• 2014 Earthquake 2f (15) Exceed And Excel 1X1 (4-6-6) $2.80
• 2013 Miracles of Life 2f (1) Not A Single Doubt 111 (7-6-3) $3.25
• 2012 Samaready 2f (7) More Than Ready 11 (9-9-1) $2.10
• 2011 Sepoy 2c (5) Elusive Quality 111 (2-2-2) $1.60
• 2010 Star Witness 2c (14) Starcraft 11 (13-13-12) $10
• 2009 Reward for Effort 2c (5) Exceed And Excel 12 (3-3-2) $16
• 2008 Reaan 2c (9) Hussonet 12X1 (9-9-6) $13
• 2007 Sleek Chassis 2f (9) Flying Spur 2-1-1 (6-5) $8
• 2006 Nadeem 2c (12) Redoute’s Choice 416 (12-8) $17
• 2005 Undoubtedly 2c (4) Redoute’s Choice) 15 (5-4) $26
• 2004 Alinghi 2f (5) Encosta De Lago 11 (11-8) $2.10
• 2003 Kusi 2g (7) Desert Prince 1 (6-6) $8- Awarded race due to positive swab from winning filly Roedean
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This is not the easiest race to find a definitive historical angle on, but the following is the best I can come up with.

1. Eight of the last nine winners have Danehill blood on either the sire or dam side (not as significant as I first thought given 80 per cent of this year’s entrants do!).
2. Ten of the last thirteen winners won their previous start (including 2002 winner Bel Esprit). Eight of those had won their prior two starts. The three that didn’t all came via the Colts and Geldings Blue Diamond prelude. All had won at least one race coming in.
3. Ten from thirteen had their last start at Caulfield.
4. The last four winners have started as favourite, though it had been seven years since the last favourite had saluted prior.
5. Last three winners have been fillies (five from thirteen overall).
6. Seven of the last eight male winners have been colts as opposed to geldings, the only exception being Kusi (official winner some months later).
7. Last four winners have arguably been the fastest two-year-old coming into the race (in comparison with older horses).
8. Average winning price $9 (12 years)
9. Barriers are of little consequence, with five of last twelve winners coming from barrier 9 or wider.
10. Four of the last ten winners had a gear change leading in (two blinkers on, two winkers on). Three of those had been beaten at their prior start.

Best five chances on a historical basis:

1. #2 Of the Brave: looks a top hope being unbeaten thus far from two starts and having won the BD Prelude for Colts and Geldings. He is a colt and has Danehill bloodlines. Very similarly bred to 2009 winner Reward for Effort, who was also a son of a Rory’s Jester Mare. About the only negative is the price (hardly a negative at $12!) and the fact he hasn’t run spectacular time.
2. #8Fontiton is the fastest two-year-old coming into the race and is unbeaten in three races. She is a filly and will start favourite (in sync with last three winners). She doesn’t have the Danehill breeding on either side of her pedigree but neither did Samaready in 2012.
3. #10 Flamboyant Lass ran third to Fontiton in the Fillies prelude at her first start in the Melbourne direction. That race was run faster than the colt division and she gets 2 kilograms off the male two-year-olds here. Sired by a son of Redoute’s Choice (Stratum), she has a bit going for her, and will no doubt be ignored in the betting market as the result of her wide barrier (15). That didn’t stop Earthquake (15) or Star Witness (14) winning.
4. #5 Sampeah ran third to Of The Brave in the Colts and Geldings Prelude off a win on debut in Sydney. Like Flamboyant Lass he should benefit greatly from his first run in Melbourne, where he made up a lot of ground on the leaders in the straight. He is a son of Exceed And Excel (Danehill) who has sired two of the last six winners (Earthquake and Reward For Effort). He also has blinkers applied for the first time, which could be very significant. 1200 metres should suit him a lot more than some others.
5. #6 Bantam is very similar to Sampeah being from the same stable, by the same sire, coming off an unplaced run (after a win) in the Prelude for Colts, and wearing blinkers first time. He got trapped very wide last start and draws a much better barrier in this.

Conclusion
Of the Brave and Fontiton look the best of the five chances, coming off a win last-start at this track. The others still have to prove they can win in this direction, and only Kusi has managed to do that in the last 28 years, if my memory serves correct (prior win in Sydney). Although e actually ran second at the time to Roedean who was later disqualified. So you could say it hasn’t been done for a very long time.

They would make up my ‘historical’ quinella, and why not throw the rest into trifectas given the value they represent?