AFL ladder pool prediction (part III)

Of course Freo is that good. That's why I am predicting it. They are in the best shape they have ever been in. Their competition will not come from the three you mention. It would be silly to wear their colours. Why do that? I am a sensible, balanced pundit. What you suggest is so random!

There is faith and then there is unreasoned madness.For the Dockers to be 2 or three games clear at the end of the H&A would require pitiful efforts from 14 of the 18 teams, Considering that such efforts will similarly gift the other top 3 sides, let's say Sydney,Hawks ,Port for the argument, with 17 or 18 wins apiece. A team will make the 8 on 10 wins. You are thus suggesting that the Dockers will win 20 or 21 games in the season Ptui! They are not that good : even in your current pre-season febrile state you must admit that....Although, delusion knows no bounds If they do not, will you walk at midday down High Street clad in a Hawks beanie, a Port scarf and Warwick Capper's shorts?

Last year proved Freo still WERE there. The only team that caned Hawthorn towards the end of the season and they only folded with too much injury at the end. Like most, you continue to ignore that injury truth but, in defiance of Sydney's plunge out of the 8 on the basis of their bottom 3 standard showing in the GF, you dismiss it as, "Sydney played one bad game, big whoop. " One standard for one, another for Freo, Michael? Have faith...Freo will be top 2...I think top, 2 or 3 games clear of everyone else at the end of H & A.

Yeah it is, he is irreplaceable.

Good comment there... I just can't agree that the eagles have been uncompetitive in the midfield against freo (based purely on results really). In the first derby of 2014, the eagles actually had more scoring shots than the dockers, which points up that the midfield can't have been dominated, even if the poor accuracy could point up poor delivery. The same thing actually happened in the second derby, so it would seem that the eagles were fairly competitive in their engine room. Also, when you consider the second (I think) derby of 2013 where the remnants of a decimated Eagles midfield held their own against Freo for 3 quarters I can't see how you can back up your claim. Oh yes, and that is the other thing, I respect this author for going out on a limb to suggest a bolter or two rather than just stick to the obvious candidates, although yours may well prove to be more accurate

I need to correct something. You said if 1 or 2 Cats become 'stars' (so you're expecting quite a jump from them) yet you can't find ANY improvements for WC. Your biased mate

So you think it's reasonable to expect the Cats young mids to improve but not WC's. You can't have it both ways, try and be consistent. Are you a Cats supporter or does it just come across that way? Cats have little chance of making the Top 4 as you said, WC even less.

I think whether Hawthorn have a good culture or are just winners is irrelevant. Whatever it is they have going on is working for them. Can't see any reason why Hawthorn and Sydney shouldn't be the teams to beat. Honestly two of the best teams I've seen in a long time both on paper and on field. Sydney played one bad game, big whoop. That game was lost in the midfield, and I don't think any Swans fans are going to be demanding that Jack, Kennedy, Parker, Hannebery etc be traded. I'd like to see Freo get their s*** together. It's felt like forever watching them develop into a powerhouse team but last year proved they still just weren't there. West Coast seem to be in the proverbial. It's basically universally accepted that they have a great forward line, and a good back line (though without McKenzie I don't know...), but they lack toughness in the midfield. It kills Eagles fans to hear this, but they're most exposed against Fremantle. The likes of Barlow, Fyfe, Pearce etc. monster West Coast's midfielders in the derbys. Cheap predictions for the top 8: Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Geelong and Adelaide (in any order) Pretty lousy considering it's almost the exact eight teams that were there last year but oh well.

I'd agree with AB re the generosity to Richmond and West Coast. Hard to see where WC's improvement might come from and they lack depth to cover injuries. Richmond's younger brigade do offer some hope but those question marks about their mental strength absolutely remain. In particular, Rance props up the backline and Maric props up the clearances. If they lose these two, who are mentally strong, the Tigers are pussies. Geelong offloaded Taylor Hunt and the brittle Alan Christenson. That was a win for everybody because those two blokes were treading water at Geelong but could still improve. Improvement is easy to see at Geelong. If 1-2 of their younger midfielders can emerge as a star this year (Duncan, Caddie, Guthrie, Murdoch and Motlop are all the right age to do so), they'll remain an outside chance for top 4. Troy Clarke has huge ability and, as a genuine modern ruck-forward, would be a bonus if he returned to form.

Well, the loss of McKenzie is huge (and tragic)

Thanks Cam for this series of articles. For what it's worth, I think you're underestimating Geelong and Gold Coast and being far too generous to Richmond and West Coast. But one interesting point about all the predictions I've seen for 2015 is the almost unanimous view that the top four will be Hawthorn, Sydney, Port and Freo. I can't ever recall a season with such a high level of expectation about which teams would comprise the top four. And I must admit I'm sold on it as well. There just seems to be such a gap in quality between those four and the rest - with the possible exception of Geelong, who still have enough to beat anyone on their day.

Actually scratch my previous comment as I was looking at their draw from last year, this year's draw is more middle of the road comparative to other teams (and thereby quite a bit more challenging than last years). WC will face the odd tricky road trip, most notably Port and the Kangas (in Tassie), while they'll be having to fly off 6 day breaks to take on the Tigers and Gold Coast.

Kennett certainly helped, but I'd probably give more credit to Dunstall because of the role he played in getting Clarko to the club. Dicker deserves much credit for our off-field strength but his contribution to our on-field strength is very limited. I think everyone at Hawthorn deserves credit for seeing us as a team of the future, whereas a majority of Victorian clubs (including some of the big ones) rest too much on their past.

"The Bombers were up in the NT about a year ago." And what did they do in the NT? It can't have been as substantial as what Hawthorn's done for its Tas fans, ie. fly 3 premiership cups down there and give the fans an entire day to join in the celebrations. Hawthorn are also a Melbourne-based club, but unlike others we are serious about creating a national appeal to our product.

Andy, the answer is no because Essendon are a Melbourne based club. Quite simple really. The Bombers were up in the NT about a year ago, so not sure what your angle is there.

Culture and winning are very different. Check the dictionary definition here Culture - http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/culture Winning - http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/winning

I agree Dalgety and I have a theory on what went wrong last year. It is not the answer to every WC problem but this is what i noticed. They had a new coach, new game plan etc to learn in their 1st year under Simmo. They started the NAB cup very strong, won their first 3 games comfortably against lowly opposition. The media was pumping them up and they may have started to believe the hype. They then met the Cats at Skilled in R4 and got spanked by 75 points, their biggest loss of the season by a long margin. Losing that game dented the confidence they had in themselves, the game plan and maybe even the coach as it was all new to them still because what happened next is very rare in AFL. They lost the next 3 games in a row between R5-7 because they didn't kick straight. Two of the 3 games were against top 4 teams in Freo and Port. Here was the scoreline from those 3 games. West Coast - 28:43 (199) 71 scoring shots Freo, Port, Blues combined - 35:25 (235) 60 scoring shots If you watch these games you will see that they controlled them more than their opposition but they couldn't kick straight, they were missing from 15-30m out straight in front. Then they belted GWS and kicked 30.8 (188) which showed that they can kick straight and that the problem was between their ears and not their feet. They had a bye in R9 and played the Pies in R10 which was another game that they threw away. Collingwood - 17.7 (109) 24 scoring shots West Coast -15.11 (101) 36 scoring shots I'm not sure how many times a team has kicked so inaccurately across 4 games in 4 weeks of footy (excluding the bye) but those losses hurt WC's confidence even more. They should have won at least 3 of the 4 games. I view that period as an anomaly and one that is very hard to replicate in modern footy. From R11 onwards they kicked straight and made a run at the finals falling one game short in the end. Throw in all the injuries, new coach etc and it's not hard to see where the improvement will come from this year. They mixed it up with a lot of the top 4-8 teams for long periods but they weren't good enough to win any. if they can win a couple of them this year they should make the 8.

well spotted SCC. It's an easier draw by WC's (and Freo's) standards but the gap may not be as wide as it seems when you take a look at the draw the Vic clubs get simply because they don't have to travel that distance ever fortnight.

Can't argue with that Andy. Do you give Kennet any credit for where the Hawks are today? I know Dunstall has done a lot.

Brisbane's midfield looks awesome on paper but it isn't strong enough to compensate for the deficiencies in their forward line and defense. They should improve significantly this year finishing up somewhere between 9-13. WC & Tiges can certainly make the 8 and with a little bit of luck even the top 6.