With the start of the Super Rugby competition for 2015, most rugby eyes are understandably focused on which team looks to have the goods to take out the championship.
From what I have seen so far, my money is on the Chiefs and Brumbies to battle it out at season’s end.
Both teams have some great weapons at their disposal and this week sees All Blacks Sonny Bill Williams and Sam Cane return to the Chiefs, who face Canterbury on Sunday night at Waikato Stadium.
The aspect that I like about the Chiefs is the level of intensity they have brought to both matches. I fully expect to see the Chiefs go three from three when they play the Crusaders, particularly given the fact that the latter will be missing Dan Carter and Israel Dagg.
There is little doubt that the Brumbies have been the most impressive of the Australian teams to date with wins over the Reds and a last gasp defeat at the hands of the Chiefs in Round 2. They are by far the most creative of the Australian sides and are extremely well organised both in the forwards and the backs.
Australian rugby will benefit from the welcome return of Brumbies hooker and captain Stephen Moore when he takes the field against the Rebels in Melbourne.
While each of the Australian teams are currently level, with one win and one loss a piece, I cannot see the Rebels winning this match. That is not to say that the Rebels can’t match it with the Brumbies up front, because they can, and the tussles from front row, lock, and backrow should be great viewing.
It is in the backs where I see the Brumbies having the edge, and as long as they maintain at least parity in the forwards, their backs should see them home.
The inside three of Matt Toomua, Christian Lealiifano and the blockbusting Tevita Kuridrani, are particularly impressive, with individual skillsets that complement each other very well.
For the Rebels, their strength is in their forward pack, ably led from the front by their No 8 Scott Higginbotham. Halfback Nic Stirzaker also shows promise and his performance relative to that of his opposite number Nic White should be another highlight of the game.
Stirzaker returns from a week’s suspension for allegedly stomping on Crusaders star flanker Richie McCaw in Round 1, who must have been laughing his head off, given that video replays did not reveal any connection with McCaw at all.
If Stirzaker wanted to stomp McCaw, then he most certainly could have. No-one intentionally stomping a player would place their feet where Stirzaker did. If he wanted to truly stomp McCaw he would have planted his boot firmly on either one or both of McCaw’s legs or smack back in his groin. If anything, it looked to me as if he avoided McCaw.
Either Stirzaker, the referee or the judiciary were blind. My bet is the latter. The only other possibility is that I am blind – and the older I get perhaps that shouldn’t be discounted!
The art of a great flanker is to appear to be doing the opposite of what you are really doing and McCaw was doing a great job of lying at the back of the Rebels ruck, when he clearly could have removed himself if he had wanted to do so.
There is no doubt McCaw is a great flanker – and he knew exactly what he was doing – purposely getting in the way, while appearing not to.
While this does not justify a stomp, my point is that after numerous replays of the incident, I cannot see where Stirzaker actually connected with McCaw at all. So how in the hell is that a stomp?
In my view, the referee’s yellow card was an error of judgment on the referee’s part, and the judiciary giving Stirzaker a week’s suspension was a joke. The caveat to this of course is whether or not Stirzaker pleaded guilty to the charge (and why) in which case the judiciary would have little choice.
In any event, the team that is the most consistent will be the most likely to get the gong at the end of the championship and this is a strength of both the Chiefs and Brumbies.
On paper, the Waratahs should be in the mix, but at this early stage in the competition I cannot see them taking out back-to-back Super Rugby titles. They certainly have name players on paper, but they seem soft in the underbelly for my liking.
The Reds are showing that they don’t lack tenacity, and despite an embarrassing start to the season when they were pistol whipped by the Brumbies 47-3, they have picked themselves up and played with a great deal of commitment in their last two outings, which saw them defeat the Western Force, before going down to the Highlanders 13-20 in Saturday night’s Super Rugby clash in Dunedin.
Positive signs for the Reds have been Will Genia’s return to form, and the performance of James O’Connor at number 10. Genia seems to have a new lease of life, and the recent spate of misfortune that has befallen the Reds has only seemed to invigorate him, which is indeed a welcome sight.
I expect the Reds to be gallant throughout the season but cannot see them in the mix when the whips are cracking near finals time.
As for the Force, they are too inconsistent.
After stitching up the Waratahs in Round 1 of the competition, the Force gave a pretty ordinary performance in Round 2, going down to a heavily depleted Reds outfit, and were belted 42-13 in Perth by the Hurricanes on Saturday.
Speaking of the Hurricanes, they also have come out of the starting gates well, with three wins from three, so obviously cannot be discounted. The Cheetahs have also been impressive with two wins from two and the Sharks and the Stormers will not lie down.
Nonetheless, I stand by my prediction.
MMaaxx
Guest
Way to early to call but good to see the early season Aussie delusion and arrogance is back. Remember it last year and the year before...all fell apart soon afterwards when Rugby Championship started or Lions tour came around....Hooper went from best in the world to being too small etc etc etc...good times. This comp will be tight and is decided on fine lines. Hell, the Bulls would be looking much better and Hurricanes worse if Hattingh knew how to dive in to score a try. Not that the Hurricanes did not deserve to win... The Blues were far superior to the Cheetahs and lost.... So anything can happen....there will be surprises.. .bad ref calls.....injuries etc etc
Likkewaan
Roar Rookie
BB...Why do you say that? I think the Cheetahs are an exciting team with a good scrum as RobC mentioned. Os has done a lot of work with Coenie. I think this season is the season that Coenie comes of age. He is making tackles all over the park and made a couple of nice darting runs .So far the Cheetahs has showed a good balance between defence and attack. Hope to see Brussouw back soon.
Likkewaan
Roar Rookie
BB..Although the Hougaardt try pass drifted forward, there was no clear evidence that it left the hand forward, and the final try at the end...at all times there was downward pressure on the ball. Looking at slomo's don't always give clear evidence. I think although it was a new ref, he did make a few mistakes at the breakdown but overall I think he handled the game pretty well. Bismark was lucky not to be carded for his cheap shot on Matfield.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
It's early but i have seen the change in the Canes game that was evident in the Chiefs first title season. The Canes have a young pack that have come through together for a few seasons now and they have a lock in Broadhurst who is at the top of his game, with very strong support from Abbot and Thrush to come back it gives them a real strong engine room with those young front rowers coming of age. They have very good and rugged loose forwards to back it up and probably the best backline in the competition. The biggest factor seems to be the way the team has adjusted and taken on the style of the new coaching staff and they seem to be implementing those changes well. it's not all helter skelter they have some good structure to them and that's what makes them dangerous. I'm backing them to go top 6 and qualify 1 or 2 in the NZ conference.
El Gamba
Roar Guru
Perhaps the Rebels were, I was not looking at that but both teams were up fast. I thought the reffing consistently terrible IWNS, the difference being the 7 points the Brumbies got from a forward pass.
BullDownUnder
Guest
I'm not sure you could compare the Bulls calls to those given to the Brumbies. The Bulls forward pass was not blatant, but margenable. It was undefended and if it was little forward it didn't advantaged the Bulls to score the try. It would have being scored regardless ntbecause of poor defence or ndefendant. Sharks should have defended better. It was a good structured try. The other one at no instance did his arm lost contact with the ball until grounded. In the case of the Brumbies the forward pass was 2 meters, 4 meters away from the try line the pass put him behind the defence. Rebels could defend if it was in backwards. In this case it advantaged the Brumbies and also wasn't referered.
Pinetree
Guest
Moaman and Mike, good on ya mate, and no malice taken at all, it took me to my 3rd mouse to realise a switch to cordless was the way to go :) I recommend the cordless keyboard as well....
Mike
Guest
He's still doing it, although it doesn't have the same dramatic effect with cordless... :P [Apologies, I've never met Pinetree and no malice intended!]
moaman
Guest
" Pinetree bit of a keyboard warrior aye" Rumour has it that Pinetree once ripped his mouse out of the socket by it's cord--thereby ending it's career.....
Graeme, there is only one statistic that matters. International matches. For the period of the Super 12 Stormers 40,2% win rate Sharks 35.6% win rate Bulls 28.5% Lions 21.5% Super 14 Sharks 60.6% Bulls 59% Stormers 54.3% Lions 26.7% Cheetahs 22.2% Super 15 Sharks 62.2% Stormers 57.4% Bulls 51.5% Cheetahs 47% Lions 25% These are the stats for each period of Super Rugby. As you can see the SA teams struggled badly in the Super 12, and if you take their overall percentages it is misleading as the last decade the South African teams have been very competitive Read it any way you want, these are the facts.
Pinetree
Guest
You have to remember Dave, that having only 3 Aus teams for the first 10 years, should give you an advantage, as your talent is less spread out. Also, Aus did not manage to get their 2nd and 3rd team to a premiership, until the round robin system was aborted, which gives Australia or any country , a less credible path to topping the table, which makes winning a title more likely due to home advantage. I think where we disagree, is the level of success to playoffs, and my opinion of a flawed system from 2011 onwards, and your view on who shows up near the bottom of the table, which means we will never agree with each other. I will pass it on to Harry to make the call after this round, but he will probably declare it a draw :)
Pinetree
Guest
I don't quite understand how it advantages S.A. to have more teams in the bottom 3rd of the log, apart from '11-'14, as all teams played each other from 2000-2010. Would that not mean that all teams got to play the poorer S.A. teams, which still does not account for the poorer showing for Australian teams in playoffs. I guess where we really disagree Graeme, is the amount of playoff success, in comparison to bottom 3rd of table standing, which probably means we will never agree :)
Graeme
Guest
Pinetree. I tried to delete my last comment but I think it will still go through so I might as well just state it. Since 2000 SA have regularly had three teams in the bottom third of the log, it is an advantage to the better SA teams,
Graeme
Guest
Pinetree, SA have had three teams in in the bottom third of the log for much of the time since 2000.
Pinetree
Guest
Ah, is that what happened! Thanks for clearing that up BB. Still managed to make 2 semi finals in 2001, 2002. With the change of team names in S.A, I have got a bit lost sometimes :)
The Lions and Cheetahs combined to make the cats, but the infighting between the two Provinces were so bad they decided to spllit
Pinetree
Guest
I thought Laurie Mains brought the Cats to 2 semi finals. Also, are the Cats and the Lions the same team with a different name, or did they replace each other?
Pinetree
Guest
Graeme, the cats and lions are the same team, the kings replaced the lions, so S.A. have had 1 bad team most years, but they have had strong ones too. The bulls have had bad years, but have won 3 titles. Only the kings have failed to not make a playoff, I believe the Force and Rebels are still looking for there first playoff appearance :)
Bulls were crap in the super 12, the Cats was a failed experiment, the Kings have played 1 season and won three of their interconference matches vs Australia.
Graeme
Guest
And Bulls, Cats and Kings. Do you think you could spell my name correctly once? :-)