They say it’s hard to soar like an eagle when you’re surrounded by turkeys. This season, West Coast are likely to find out just how many of the latter are on their list.
The Eagles have already been dealt two defensive blows with the loss of 2014 best and fairest, and All-Australian squad nominee, key defender Eric Mackenzie, along with the retired hard-nut Beau Waters.
To read the rest of Cam’s series, go to our AFL preview series page
While they can no longer be considered part of their best 22 for 2015, let’s have a look at who might be:
B: J.Bennell M.Brown J.McGovern
HB: S.Hurn W.Schofield E.Yeo
C: M.Rosa M.Priddis A.Gaff
HF: C.Masten J.Darling S.Wellingham
F: M.LeCras J.Kennedy J.Cripps
Foll: N.Naitanui L.Shuey S.Selwood
Int: S.Lycett X.Ellis M.Hutchings D.Sheed
Em: B.Sheppard S.Butler T.Lamb
West Coast are actually well represented for tall players, so will be able to cover the loss of Mackenzie in a way that several other clubs would not.
Mitch Brown and Will Schofield will have to shoulder most of the defensive burden in the key posts, supported by Jamie Bennell on the small forwards. Schofield has shown that he can provide run at times, but the others are there for honesty rather than thrills.
Shannon Hurn will create drive with his lethal right boot, as he always does, but is still too susceptible to a hard tag if it comes his way. If he gets the ball with time and space in the forward half of the ground, a West Coast scoring shot is usually coming.
Josh Kennedy is one of the premier key forwards in the competition, and will be relied upon once more to lead the attack.
However, there is a severe injury cloud over Jack Darling heading into the season, as 3AW’s Sam McClure tweeted last night:
“Massive concerns surrounding Jack Darling, with Eagles tight lipped. Experts very worried that his middle-foot pain hasn’t subsided.”
If Darling’s problems linger into the coming months, that will mean two of West Coast’s three most important key position players will have limited or no meaningful impact on the season.
Jeremy McGovern, a revelation as a strong marking player in the second half of last year, both forward and back, will have to bear more responsibility than a 13-game 22-year-old should be asked of. He will no doubt be used at both ends of the ground, depending on match-ups, and where the most pressing need for his services is.
Of the forwards, Mark LeCras is one of the classiest players in the game, and one of few Eagles to lay claim to that label. He’ll be looking to continue averaging two to three goals a game, but also lift his possession rate to above 20 per match, something that he’s never achieved across a season. The more he gets the ball, the better served his team is.
Jamie Cripps found his feet as an old-fashioned goal sneak last year, and will be asked to go to another level again if West Coast are going to make an unlikely charge into finals calculations.
Along with some personnel problems up forward and down back, the limited nature of their midfield is another reason why the Eagles will be finding themselves in the bottom third of the ladder in 2015.
Matt Priddis is now a Brownlow medallist, even if on the night the man himself could hardly believe it. A more humble victor we’ve rarely seen. We know what we’re going to get from him – head over the pill tirelessly, first hands on it, and distribution to a nearby teammate.
Andrew Gaff, the best outside user and arguably most damaging on-baller at the club, found his most consistent level last year, and will still have more improvement to come entering his fifth season. His importance is amplified by being the only player of his type in the team.
The rest of the line-up, led by Scott Selwood, Matt Rosa, Chris Masten and possibly Mark Hutchings, are honest tradesman. Luke Shuey, while a good player, has underwhelmed in his career so far. Sharrod Wellingham never reached great heights at Collingwood, and has gone backwards at West Coast.
None of these guys break the lines with any regularity, or possess any wow factor. Elliot Yeo shows promises in the clinches, but is he going to be more of the same for a midfield that is already too blue-collar and workmanlike?
Nic Naitanui provides pizzazz and punch whenever he’s around the ball, but are we ever going to see more than cameo performances? With the retirement of Dean Cox, this is the year for him to own the ruck position and find more of the ball around the ground.
West Coast has decent players across the park, but not enough top-end quality to match the better sides. They were the only team not to defeat a top-eight side in 2014. Their home ground is too big for them, allowing better opposition teams to easily get on top by dominating the spread.
Despite all of this, the Eagles finished ninth last year, but they don’t appear to have anything like the improvement in them that several sides below them will show. They are not a final-eight contender.
Predicted ladder spread: 12th – 16th
Predicted finish: 14th
Rosey’s ladder so far
14th – West Coast
15th – Carlton
16th – Melbourne
17th – Western Bulldogs
18th – St Kilda
KR
Guest
these things are so cute to look back over later in the year ;-)
Bovs
Guest
Shuey, Masten, Rosa and Wellingham all have the potential to become A-Grade midfielders. To date none of them have been able to step up, and if none of them do you're prediction probably won't be far wrong. However, if for example Shuey can go up another notch, and if Naitanui can take his game to another level particularly when playing forward, the Eagles could be very dangerous given their soft draw this year. I think WCE could finish anywhere between 7th and 15th with a 12ish final spot most likely.
jax
Guest
Very good summation Nath. I'm with you. If things go well they should play finals. If they don't they will miss out but not by very much. For them to finish 14th they would need to have another injury ravaged season that is worse than the previous years.
jax
Guest
I can't see anyone running rings around McGovern but if they did it would be an exception and not to be totally unexpected on rare occasions from a 13 game player. He's as good as Darling in my books and might even be a more important player already. Lamb is looking like another one of similar ilk that may develop nicely. He came 2nd in the 3k time trial and 3rd in the beep test at the draft combine which isn't shabby for a 193cm type. I'm tipping that you will see a number of WC's defenders (and other lines) step up. Brown plays tall and small and he kept Schulz scoreless against Port minus Mackenzie, Hurn, Schofield and Ellis (injured). That's 3 of their starting 6 defenders not playing one minute and the other one 1 playing a half against a near full strength Port on their home deck. Rosa played on Westoff believe it or not and kept him to 1 goal so they were obviously trialling players in different positions as they said they would. Shepp is set for a big year in defense and Bennell and Butler are already very good defenders. Ezy is a huge loss and it will have an impact but if the defense doesn't get decimated by injury they will hold there own and beat most attacks. The midfield is much more skilled than you (and many others) give them credit for. You need to watch them play more and read about them less. It's Chinese whispers gone wrong.
Mr B
Guest
I "enjoyed" your article, although not your conclusion. On first reading I couldn't find much to fault in your arguments, but coming back to it a day later, I think it's worth noting the following: 1. Many of the Eagles mids, for whatever reason, didn't have a good year last year. Several were seriously impacted by injury, others such as Wellingham just didn't play well. Sheed should only be better for an extra year under his belt. 2. The Eagles forward line is a real strong point, IF they can improve their accuracy. In several games last year they outgunned the opposition with scoring shots, but kicked too many behinds. It would have only taken a little more accuracy for them to have scored enough wins to have been knocking on the door of the top four, let alone the eight. 3. The departures of Cox, Glass and Waters, although lamentable, should not actually make too much difference. They realistically didn't have a huge influence last year. I suspect that the big issue for the Eagles this season is going to be their defence. If they can find a player or two to step up in this area, there's no reason they shouldn't be between 5th and 8th.
Nath
Guest
The fact that you have Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane and GWS finishing above West Coast shows me you have little grasp on reality!!! (jokes) West Coast finished 9th last year and beat the above 4 teams (GWS by 110 points mind you!) and the team is basically the same but a year older/stronger. Glass/Cox didn't play a whole lot and Waters didn't play at all so that's a non issue. Add Duggan/Lamb, who could be x-factors in a few games, Sheed another pre-season, Sheppard for a breakout, I think the team looks pretty good. The good thing with that 'Best 22' you have, is the consistency. The bulk of that group have played with each other solidly for 2-3 years now. West Coast had one of the best 'inside 50 entry' stats last year but couldn't capitalise on the scoreboard (poor kicking for goals). I really believe we would've beaten Port in round 4 if not for kicking points instead of goals. Mackenzie is a massive out, but I think we can make up for it going the other way and hitting the scoreboard more. Also think Adam Simpson having another preseason with the players / game plan will be massive too! Overall, I just think you've critiqued them too harshly and I see West Coast making the lower end of the top 8. Time will tell :)
The Great Poohdini
Guest
What can I say, you pick enough pockets you can pay for an education. Poohdini Out!
The Great Poohdini
Guest
I took a speed reading class a few years back so I was able to read the first chapter of Nathan Buckley's 'All I can be'. Nathan Buckley is all I want to be. Poohdini Out!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Some excellent points there JT. I love your last section there, and the open-mindedness of your last sentence. As a few people have posited, this could be a year where teams could finish anywhere across ten or so ladder positions. It could be a matter of winning the close ones while others drop them, avoiding costly injuries or getting them, things like that.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I go for Richmond, Adam.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Haha, I like it!
jax
Guest
My stomach turned when I saw their name appear so in an effort to relieve the symptoms I went back in time in the hope that you'd got a few wrong. I'm hoping that WC will be one of them this year. Thanks for being a good sport and keep it up!
jax
Guest
Fair assessment Tom. I wouldn't go so far as to call the forward line vanilla, nor the backline. Your midfield does look a bit vanilla but it can still be effective and they can mix things up by giving others opportunities to run through there. Wellingham, Yeo, LeCras, Rosa, Bennell (Butler can cover), Ellis, Sheppard, Sheed, Newman, Duggan, Cripps. Lucas, Darling and McGovern can all play a midfield role. Throw in Nic Nat, and I can see quite a few teams having their fare share of headaches. Some of them can play a full game as a mid and some only for shorter bursts, but most of them can play the role for extended periods, but then some of those guys don't have a lot of experience either. To be clear, that was my best case scenario. My worst case would be an 11th - 12th placing, depending on injuries, especially Nic. I'm not concerned about their form because they've had a good pre-season and I believe that they are a very committed young group that will give it their all. Their skills are better than a lot of people think (least number of clangers in the AFL last year and a better effective disposal % than Port and Sydney), but I am concerned with their lack of experience and injuries. I'd like them to be a little quicker but that's not a serious problem. They put on weight over the summer so I expect them to win more contests. I expect the majority of the guys I named to improve this year, if they get to string some games together without injuries that is. Nic is the biggest worry of all and with Sinclair out for a month they are now down to one recognised ruckman and an inexperienced one at that with a few pinch hitters. McInnes is promising but he's more of a forward and he may debut but they certainly can't count on him. Nic is the most important WC player at the minute, more than Darling and Mackenzie. If Nic is out for a fair stint or underdone Lycett and Sinclair would need to play a lot of minutes and play them well for WC to have any chance of making the 8. At Simmo's first press conference he made it very clear that 'flexibility and skills' would be crucial pieces of his game plan. So he's either been sitting on his ass for the last 18 months or he has improved their flexibility and skills, we will soon see. I want to see Simmo mix it up when needed and get the other team thinking, uncomfortable and on the back foot.
Chris Pike
Expert
I think they might finish a little higher than 14th and probably ahead of the Giants but I can't see them being a finals contender. Mackenzie was the player they could afford to lose the least. Mitch Brown a handy tall back. McGovern good at being the third man up, but I think the league's best tall forwards will run rings around him. And then there is the slow, largely poorly skilled midfield. Will be a tough year
jax
Guest
If Lycett and Sinclair stay fit they should go ok without Nic. Neither of them have played a full season at AFL level so it is an unknown but they are both talented. Nic would be sorely missed no doubt.
jax
Guest
GWS won't finish last. I'm expecting them to improve this year as will GCS and the Crows.
jax
Guest
They could easily make the 8 and just as easily miss the 8. For mine they are just one of a group of teams that may or may not play finals this year.
jax
Guest
When measuring ball use do you mean creativity, effective disposals or clangers or something else? I don't know how to measure creativity so I checked the 2014 stats for clangers and effective disposals and found this. WC Clangers - 41.5 - the best in AFL (tied with the Blues). AFL average was 43.9. WC ED - 71.7% which was better than Port, Sydney, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Collingwood and a tie with the Blues. That area definitely needs improvement as it's below average but I will note that it didn't stop Port and Sydney making the Top 4. AFL average was 72.3% Here's a few good ball users you missed with their respective ED%. Wilson - 88.5% - 8th best in the league but only played 2 games so happy if you overlook him. He is highly skilled by foot though but he needs more games to be included but an excellent start none the less. Bennell - 84.4% Mackenzie - 83.1% McGovern - 80% Schofield - 78.8% Butler - 77.6% Lycett - 75.7% M Brown 75.3% Gaff - 75.1% Pendelbury - 75% (not WC but worth mentioning) Masten - 74.7% Yeo - 74.7% Ellis - 74.4% Lucas - 74.1% (at the Blues) Hurn - 73.9% Shuey - 72.1% Rosa - 71.7% AFL average was 72.3% so I'll stop there. I did notice a few players just under the average that should improve their ED this year eg Sheppard was 69.7%. All of the WC players listed above had better ED than guys like Ablett, Fyfe, Murphy, Boak, Hanneberry, Jetta, Hartlett, Hodge, A Swallow, Sidebottom, Gray and M Walters just to name a few. LeCras finished lower than all of them btw. Duggan is elite off both sides of his body so I added him as one to keep an eye on when he gets his chance.
Adam Rowles
Guest
Cam, what team do you support?
JT
Guest
Last year we were a Richmond miracle away from making the finals. Yes we lost Glass and Cox, but neither of those had seasons to write home about. But it was Adam Simpson's first season, one where he had to deal with following Worsfold (and one where list management decisions were made before his appointment), and was in deference to the club on a lot of things. Track down his press conferences from last year's pre-season. A lot of "I don't know" and "we'll wait and see". He's now been in the job for a year and is in control. Our performances in the second half of 2014 suggest that a Simpson in firm control is a good thing. But oh well. Can't really argue with some of your points. At least the last time people were predicting us to finish so low we ended up in a Preliminary Final. One point worth making is that our three leading goalkickers in 2011 were Kennedy (59), LeCras (47) and Mark Nicoski (41). Well, Lecca did his knee in the 2012 pre-season and never played a game all season. Nicoski tore his hammy off the bone in the NAB Cup Grand Final and never played again. Kennedy did his ankle against the Tigers and missed 17 weeks, yet we still finished 5th. Good teams find a way to adapt to adversity. Now all we need to do is figure out if we're a good team or not.