Ok, let’s face it, apart from having the ability to recite almost any statistic in South African cricket, I am very low on the totem pole when it comes to being knowledgeable about the game.
I cannot tell you what a doosra or an arm ball is. I know about the flipper as Shane Warne used it rather expertly and I saw it many times.
I know what a leg spinner is (ball spins from leg to off) and I know what an off spinner is (the opposite), but don’t ask me about a leg break, off break etc.
So now that we have established my credentials, I will attempt to discuss the Proteas’ chances in this World Cup.
Over the past number of years it has become evident that the Proteas are more adept at batting first and defending a score than chasing a score. So I thought it would be interesting to look at the individual players for South Africa to see whether there is a discernible pattern evident in the individual performances of the players.
The Proteas have eight recognised batsmen at the World Cup. I have therefore taken these batsmen’s stats and compared batting first versus batting second performances.
Hashim Amla has scored an average of 59 runs off 63 balls per first innings, and 46 runs per 58 balls faced in the second innings. This is a significant drop in scoring rate, from 93 to 80 and 13 runs less per innings.
Quinton de Kock has scored an average of 51 runs off 58 balls per first innings, and 21 runs per 23 balls faced in the second innings. Although his scoring rate increases slightly, his runs scored per innings drops by 30.
Faf du PLessis has scored an average of 33 runs off 41 balls per first innings, and 37 runs per 40 balls faced in the second innings. In Faf’s case although he faces the same number of balls per innings, he actually increases his scoring rate and therefor his average runs per innings.
AB de Villiers has scored an average of 54 runs off 46 balls per first innings, and 50 runs per 49 balls faced in the second innings. There is a drop in scoring rate, but AB still scores above a run a ball and his runs per innings doesn’t significantly drop.
David Miller has scored an average of 35 runs off 33 balls per first innings, and 14 runs per 18 balls faced in the second innings. This is a drop in scoring rate, but more importantly 21 runs less per innings batting second.
Rillee Rossouw has scored an average of 43 runs off 37 balls per first innings, and 13 runs per 15 balls faced in the second innings. This is a significant drop in scoring rate, as well as a significant drop of 30 runs per innings batting second.
Farhaan Behardien has scored an average of 19 runs off 17 balls per first innings, and 15 runs per 20 balls faced in the second innings.
At this point I am going to dismiss Behardien from the equation as he is the eighth batsman and as he has the lowest numbers.
Individually it might not be that obvious, but when you collate these numbers it shows that if these batsmen batted together in every match for South Africa, then between them they average 306 runs off 315 balls in the first innings.
When you look at their collective runs batting second there is a significant drop to 206 runs off 238 balls.
What it effectively shows you is that these seven batsmen are likely to complete an innings batting first without having to rely on their bowlers to make runs, whereas when batting second, they won’t last 50 overs or 300 balls.
There are three main culprits if you were inclined to look for someone to blame. Quinton de Kock, Rillee Rossouw and David Miller.
Quinton de Kock is in horrible form since his injury and is struggling with confidence. It might be prudent to move him to the number seven position in the batting line up.
He is a natural stroke maker and it could improve the South African batting line up if you move him to where the ball is older, does less and a solid base has already been set by the previous batsmen.
In the case of Rossouw, I would think it is too early to be too concerned about whether he has mental fragility as he has only batted five times in a second innings. His recent form should provide hope that the confidence from his last few innings will carry him through.
Moving Rossouw up the order to bat with Hashim Amla could be the option to replace de Kock.
David Miller is a bit of an enigma in my view, although a very competent finisher he has looked more accomplished and competent when given more time at the crease before having to unleash.
His last few innings showed that he is capable of doing more than just a cameo appearance from a dozen deliveries.
The evidence suggests that these three batsmen lack either the experience or mental fortitude to perform under pressure batting second, and it will be up to each of them to disprove these facts and perform when necessary.
Great comment Mukhtar, thanks, yes, I believe you have very valid points there.
Mukhtar
Guest
Thanks, Biltong, for providing the breakdown of runs scored for the SA batsmen, in the 2nd innings.. I think SA's inability to chase even average totals against decent opposition, comes down to tactics and mental fortitude. Remember, this is the same team that can collectively stone-wall on order to salvage a draw in a Test match.. Therefore, my argument is: the Proteas brains trust must decide how to engineer a run chase, given the poor performances thus far.. Each batsman must be given a clearly-defined role. Somehow, it feels, the SA management has not done its homework. There are no 'banker' batsmen in the Proteas side, save de Villiers and Amla. I see Amla as the glue holding this team together. So, when chasing, an option would be to open with specialist openers, and have Amla come in at No. 3, so that the chances of his presence in the final overs are maximised. The press reported that showers had freshened the pitch for the Pakistani bowlers, but still the SA batmsen were not playing with any caution - the high run rate, given the match situation was utterly baffling. There seems to be a strong sense of hara-kiri to the SA tactics when chasing. This tendency to self-destruct under pressure, is not something unique to this SA team. Nevertheless, the team management must find ways to marry the skill in the batting order with some steel. Specifically, Brian McMillan spoke about the need for experience in the team, in such big events - the young players who currently wear the team colours, must justify their place. Very rarely to do teams go through such big events, without a stutter. SA have had 2 already - now it is time to implement the lessons learned, or a quick return home beckons. Go, Proteas!!
Vic
Guest
Ja. Well.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Really? That's akin to confirming there's a loss of confidence in the batting lineup and the disease can spread quickly should that not come off. Seems this tournament is about the confidence of the batsmen so far, most usual suspects carrying their sides...Khoi, dhoni, sangakara, McCullum, Warner, AB, Amla, Williamson etc but also having to do it while the rest of their sides capitulate.
nabeel
Guest
when we bat second why we cant send a pinch hitter to open with amla or @3 i wil open with philander and amla phillander can score quickly he is stroke maker and qdk can come in after jp and smash them all parts with rest of the order remains same faf rsw ab mlr jp
13th Man
Guest
And after losing to Pakistan you might be written off too. It is simply a mental thing with South Africa, surely, they are too good to lose to Pakistan like that. I don't like the look of that long tail though. Philander would have been very useful with the bat today. The WC could well be decided by a toss of a coin if SA make the final!!
taylorman
Roar Guru
Starting to happen again biltong, another chase not in them. Interestingly, I'd prefer we bowl at SA first to put them under pressure first as our bowling attack is making sides just a little bit nervous. If we meet that is. But we can do that just as effectively batting first I suppose. But I've doubts about putting a big total up first, so never putting pressure on SA at all. We haven't had to yet so I think we want low scoring matches for now.
jammel
Guest
Chill a bit, biltongbek. What I'd really like to see this WC is Australia play RSA in a sudden death match and have us chase down a reasonable total in style - a la Steve Waugh in the super six round in 1999. Now that'd be entertainment!
Damn, I only now realize I forgot to add JP Duminy's numbers. Will see later to add it.
Hi mate, I prefer to be written off, it might just create enough of a "dismissing mindset" when we meet teams in the knock out rounds. ;)
13th Man
Guest
Hi BB, great article mate. I think people are dismissing South Africa from WC favoritism far too quickly. I am sick of hearing the c word (choke) all the time. The fact is they are a quality side with quality players, De Villiers, Steyn, Amla and Du Plessis are all world class. Yes they have weaknesses and perhaps a bit of mental fragility but all sides have weaknesses. Good sides play best in the business end of the competition and nobody should take SA lightly.
And you are a class act too ;)
jammel
Guest
Haha - RSA cannot chase down big/decent totals … because they choke!! :)
Thanks for putting the obvious out there, however combine our success rate batting second and then the combined picture tells a different story ;)
LIkkewaan, I was one of those detractors when it came to Jaque Kallis playing ODI's, my lasting impression of him was one of getting highly frustrated as he ate up the balls whilst the required run rate kept climbing. As much as he provided the back bone when the required rate was 5, we would be OK, but when we needed more than a run a ball, we would feel the pressure.
Layman
Guest
Duh! when you bat first- you put as many runs on the board to demoralise the other team or to be sure to win. When you bat second, you only score what you need. The stats mentioned is silly and not relevant. The result in Melbourne against India is in line with the fact that the percentage of teams playing first and winning outstrips the second innings there every-time. Had the Proteas batted first, they would have won. Even Dhoni acknowledged this at the post match interviews.
Bobbo7
Guest
I think SA played poorly and India well.
Bobbo7
Guest
Agree. Even at 80% Kallis would ealk into most sides
Likkewaan
Roar Rookie
Hi BB. The stats you quoted above just really shows that Kallis's scoring rate was more or less the same batting first or second. Stats aside, which I believe does not really prove the reason we have not been successful at chasing scores of 250+, just shows how much we miss a guy like Jaques Kallis, where our middle order could bat around. I agree that I would not sacrifice Rossouw for De Kock to open the innings, why I suggested it would not be a bad thing to give Dean Elgar a go at opening with Amla BB I enjoy your well researched articles and all the stats you quote, but sometimes you need to look beyond the stats as they don't always give you the bigger picture.
ak
Roar Guru
Is this really a WC going on??? ICC wants to reduce the number of sides to ten for the next WC. Why??? Why cannot they have 3 matches per day? But no. They will never do that. Why? Because WC is for TV. For advertisements. For commercials. For money. They will lose out on money if they have 3 matches per day. There are 14 sides and one match is going on. What does that mean? That 12 sides are just sitting. How many days have gone since the WC started? More than 20. And how many games has each side played? Not more than 3 or 4. So who is to blame for the WC prolonging ? Associate sides ? Ofcourse not. ICC can certainly arrange more games to be played on a day. In short it is a game of money now. Money talks. Money walks. Not interested in this crap now.