The World Cup is on its way and as per usual New Zealand are firming as the front-runners to lift the Webb Ellis Cup.
However the World Cup has not always run to script, and New Zealand have found themselves knocked out of the competition far more often than they would have liked.
Below are several reasons why the All Blacks will not take out the trophy, and one reason why they will.
No side has ever gone back-to-back
Four years is a lifetime in rugby union and no nation has been able to successfully navigate the time in between the World Cups to claim the Web Ellis Cup two tournaments in a row.
Furthermore, the All Blacks have never won a World Cup in the northern hemisphere – or outside New Zealand for that matter.
Whether it has been a dodgy meal from Suzie in South Africa, the French uncharacteristically refusing to surrender, or Australian teams just being a nuisance, New Zealand have never been able to get the result away from home.
South Africa
The only team that has beaten the All Blacks since 2012, the Springboks’ efforts in Johannesburg last year helped erode some of the aura that surrounds ‘The Darkness’.
Like Australia they have been largely successful in the northern hemisphere, with one title to their name and a freak Stephen Larkham drop-goal denying them a chance for another.
Australia’s favourite World Cup location
Australia’s two World Cup titles have been achieved in Britain.
Despite a dramatic 2014 (quite an understatement), the Wallabies came within a breath of taking the Bledislode off the All Blacks, with a draw, and a one-point loss drowned out by an Eden Park drubbing.
If Australia can survive the pool of death – and that will be a feat in itself – expect that belief to carry them well into the tournament
Ireland
A match between these two teams last year would have been a great indicator for the World Cup, with both teams on top of their respective hemispheres at present.
Ireland have won 10 games in a row, are poised to take out the Six Nations, and are in line to achieve a grand slam. They are the northern hemisphere’s best hope of winning the World Cup.
France
Months out from the World Cup the French team is a shambles, which should be a dire warning for other teams.
Somehow for those few weeks every four years the French throw aside all the off-field chaos and make a solid run at the Cup. The most successful team not to win the trophy, write the French off at your peril.
Why New Zealand will win the World Cup
They’re the All Blacks.
If you can think of any other reasons feel free to contribute in the comments.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Nope, what beat the AB's that day was a faultless French side who spent 65% of the time on defence and was so perfect they did not concede a single penalty in 60 mins on defence. Remarkable discipline....
Jerry
Guest
I'm no probability expert, but I read something that broke it down like this - even if a team has an 80% chance of winning any match, their probability of winning 3 consecutive knockout matches is something like 50%. So yeah, saying all the AB's have to do is turn up to win cause they're the best is rubbish. But equally, those non AB fans who claim they're chokers cause they don't win all the time is rubbish - it's easy to be 'right' when you're backing the field against 1.
waikato07
Guest
I agree with the two finalists and Joe Schmidt coaching (possibly with Dave Rennie) not sure who will win though - I pray the AB's and an added bonus for me would be England not making it out of their pool
Mike
Guest
I don't recall anywhere suggesting that Australia or the Tahs are going to win anything Taylorman, so I don't know what your problem is. And no, its not a lack of humility to point out when others have an overdose of hubris.
Mike
Guest
Very fair comment Gilbert
Mike
Guest
Exactly. And its not petty, just being realistic.
Peter
Guest
Some really seriously stupid arguments put forward here... What relationship is there between this All Black side and those of failed campaigns many years previous? Likewise with Britain being a "happy hunting ground" for the Wobblies - Watched any End if seasons tours lately how have the Wobblies faired.... Really... Who ever wrote probably shouldn't write anymore.
Harry Jones
Expert
And he has a few Smiths in his factory, a Mc, a Read, a Retallick, and a bus named Julian. But yes, he's also a great coach. He manages the 80 minutes very well. And seems to get the max from the guys.
Harry Jones
Expert
Or very beaten up! Especially after a QF w SA. :)
S T Ruggling
Roar Pro
whichever team claws its way out of this pool will get a belief that they can go all the way, will be a dangerous factor
S T Ruggling
Roar Pro
or could provide hope to other teams that the abs can be beaten
S T Ruggling
Roar Pro
hansen is one of the greatest rugby minds in the modern era if the abs take the title it will be largely if not predominantly due to him
S T Ruggling
Roar Pro
a speccy of a forward pass and a dark blue jersey was all that it took to take down the titan that was the all blacks in 07 the wc has proved to be a cruel mistress
S T Ruggling
Roar Pro
i would but honestly this is new zealands wc to lose
Harry Jones
Expert
Nick, I see Samoa emerging from Pool B and giving England a hellish QF. OZ has horror draw. Has to play England at Twickenham, Wales, SA, NZ, Ireland (or Eng again) to win. That's too many mongrel teams.
Sylvester
Guest
Key difference with this ABs side is the number of tight games they've won in recent times, some of which they really had no right to win. That, I think, becomes a mental condition which could just be the edge they need in a tight knockout game.
dsat24
You mean the northern hemisphere SBs to win BB?
taylorman
Roar Guru
But they are actually favourites Gilbert...the bookies say so. It's not like it's a choice thing, unless you have a non beating meaning of favourite.
Phantom
Roar Rookie
Why should the ABs be favourites. It makes no sense.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Whereas as you as a fan mike come across with sublime humility...