Newmarket Handicap and Australian Cup: Group 1 preview and tips

What a treat awaits us on Saturday, with the Newmarket Handicap and Australia Cup double at Flemington.

Will a new horse be announced the sprinting champion of the world? Which of our middle-distance weight-for-age gallopers will stand up?

Starting with the Newmarket, Lankan Rupee is the defending champion and last-start Lighting Stakes winner, confirming his love for the Flemington straight.

Oh, and he’s also rated the world’s best sprinter.

Many suspected that he wasn’t quite at his best in the Melbourne spring, despite a string of gallant performances culminating in a third, beaten less than a length in the Darley Classic, behind two of his Newmarket rivals.

If there were any doubts about whether his best was behind him after that campaign, they were blown out of the water by his sizzling Lightning Stakes performance, where he burst the Deep Field bubble in the most emphatic style possible.

Terravista won that Darley Classic, giving both Lankan Rupee and Chautauqua a start and a beating, confirming his status as a powerhouse sprinter in his own right.

He’s arguably the most versatile of the big guns, in that he can sit forward or back, and still reel off dizzyingly fast sectionals when asked to go.

Chautauqua is the favourite after dazzling all observers with his straight form in the spring.

He bolted in both the Bobbie Lewis and Gilgai Stakes against a batch of hardened sprinters before just failing in the Darley Classic when taking on the best of the best.

Chautauqua won in eye-catching style first-up, winning by a bare margin after being in some trouble early in the straight, but doing so with authority. He is best suited at the weights of the big three under the handicap conditions after their Darley Classic match-up.

The best part is that they’re all geldings, and we can only hope they stay sound and continuing to meet year after year over the next half-decade.

All three have to defy some sort of historical precedent in order to salute.

Terravista is trying to become the first horse in 100 years to win first-up. Lankan Rupee has to carry a record-equalling weight and become the first back-to-back winner in 30 years. It’s been over a decade for a non-three year old to win the Newmarket as their first Group 1, as Chautauqua is attempting to do.

Brazen Beau is the only other chance in the race, and has undeniable claims of his own as winner of the Group 1 Coolmore Classic down the straight on Derby day, with big margins to a lot of good three-year-olds behind him.

He receives 3.5kg off Lankan Rupee for his first-up defeat in the Lightning, and will relish the extra furlong at his disposal.

Delectation and Waterman’s Bay are the best of the rest, and could find their way into a trifecta if all the breaks go their way and one or two of the others strike bad luck.

Fans of any of the main four will be loving the price they’re getting currently, and you can make a genuine case for each. Lankan Rupee will be ahead of the others in the run, and the way he accelerated first-up, the others might have to break the sound barrier to get past him.

Selections: 1. Lankan Rupee 2. Terravista 3. Chautauqua 4. Brazen Beau

The Australian Cup isn’t supplying the most classic weight-for-age field ever assembled, but is one full of tough, honest, hard-bitten types, along with a couple of big names from the Melbourne Cup.

The money has been one-way traffic for Happy Trails throughout the week, and it’s easy to see why.

There are four Flemington open Group 1s between the 1600m-2000m range each year, and Happy Trails has won three of them – the Emirates Stakes under handicap conditions, the Turnbull Stakes at set weights and penalties and the Mackinnon Stakes at weight-for-age. They all speak to his quality and versatility. The Australian Cup can give him the set.

He’s a horse that builds into his campaign to peak at the right time, and has done exactly that this time in, as he comes off a second place finish in the Peter Young. It’s also worth remembering that he’s run in two Cox Plates and been beaten less than a combined length.

Foreteller is something of a third-up specialist, and in fact is a very similar to horse to Happy Trails in the way he builds into his campaigns, is perennially underrated, and has put in super runs in the last two Cox Plates. He shouldn’t be double-figure odds in this field, and is terrific value.

We all still have memories of Protectionist’s blazing Melbourne Cup win, but you could only take him on trust after his even first-up run, even if he’ll enjoy being back at Flemington. Red Cadeaux has a place in Melbourne Cup folklore, and will be sure to have a loyal following here, but is likely to find 2000m too short.

The Cleaner was another great story from the spring, and is back to try and claim his maiden Group 1 win. He’ll give his usual great sight, but just might be lacking a length or two when it matters most in the straight.

Mourinho is the most improved galloper in the country this year, with three excellent WFA efforts, including two wins, and is finally up to his pet distance. Flemington isn’t usually his track, but this is a different horse, and he’s probably over the odds again. Why can’t he keep on keeping on?

Spillway always runs nice races in good grade, and has teased as a Group 1 talent over the last twelve months, but keeps finding a few better. He can’t quite accelerate when ridden too close, but also can’t get past them all when giving a start from the tail.

Puccini is over from New Zealand and is always dangerous at this distance range. Big Memory will be tough and honest sitting handy, and must be a first four hope at huge odds. Entirely Platinum is another that can figure at a price.

Selections: 1. Happy Trails 2. Foreteller 3. Mourinho 4. The Cleaner

Sydney has the one Group 1 on the day, the Coolmore Classic for filles and mares over 1500m at Rosehill.

First Seal has a stranglehold on the market, despite not exactly being pitched in at the weights. She can really put a field away when up to the 1400m-1600m distance range, and we eagerly anticipate how far she can go this autumn.

Not many of her opposition are in peak form, and in fact there are only two other horses coming off last start placings. There’s some value around if you’re willing to take a horse on trust.

Dear Demi is usually pretty good second-up, and pleased with her first-up run. Arabian Gold is better than what she showed last time. Plucky Belle pushed Catkins in the Millie Fox, which is always a good reference for something like this.

We’d like to have seen more from Thousand Guineas winner Amicus. Mahara will run well but may not be up to this level at this stage of her career. Tinto might be able to produce a big run fresh if the speed gets clapped on.

Selections: 1. First Seal 2. Plucky Belle 3. Dear Demi 4. Arabian Gold