Long dependent on spin to befuddle the Aussies, Pakistan’s hopes of upsetting the World Cup hosts on Friday rest on their potent pace attack.
Pakistan’s few successes against Australia in the post-Wasim-and-Waqar era have been largely built around deceptive spin-bowling.
However, at this tournament they have leaned upon pace for the first time in a long time. With trump card tweakers Saeed Ajmal and Mohammad Hafeez not involved in this World Cup, Pakistan’s fast men have flourished.
Remarkably, only 6 of their 47 wickets at this World Cup have been claimed by spinners. Pacemen Wahab Riaz (14 wickets at 22), Sohail Khan (11 wickets at 28), Mohammad Irfan (8 wickets at 23) and Rahat Ali (7 wickets at 22) have all been prolific.
Irfan was yesterday ruled out of the remainder of the tournament with a fractured pelvis. But the remaining three quicks should form the nucleus of Pakistan’s attack against Australia, with spin support from Shahid Afridi and Haris Sohail. Pakistan may even field a fourth specialist quick with Irfan’s injury opening the door for young right-armer Ehsan Adil.
Pakistan’s quicks offer the side a blend of swing, extreme pace, canny variations, and pure intimidation. They are not just a skilful group, but a fearsome one.
Wahab has a supple wrist which allows him to swing the ball both ways and matches Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins for speed, having clocked 150kmh repeatedly in this World Cup.
Sohail and Rahat are only a smidgeon slower, both having hit 145kmh in Pakistan’s last match against Ireland.
Pakistan’s best avenue to victory may be through Australia’s openers, David Warner and Aaron Finch. Both have a big ton to their names this tournament but not much else. They have yet to set Australia a really good platform, with their best partnership for the World Cup a 57-run stand in the opening match against England.
Pakistan’s quicks will feel confident they can get an early look at first drop Steve Smith and perhaps even skipper Michael Clarke.
The success of their pacemen at this tournament has been pivotal, given Pakistan do not have the kind of batting talent possessed by Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka or India. If Pakistan are to cause an upset against Australia it will very likely be their bowlers, not their batsmen, who engineer such a triumph.
While their batting line-up is far from feeble, they do not have the ability to pile up 330-plus batting first against Australia’s potent bowling attack, nor to chase down such a score.
The main hurdle the Pakistan players must clear is a mental one. Australia have utterly dominated Pakistan in ODIs in recent years, regardless of the venue or the state of the pitch. Over the past five years, Australia have a 14-3 win-loss record against Pakistan in 50-over cricket. What’s more, half of those victories were comprehensive.
Most recently, Australia thumped them 3-0 in the UAE. That series was extremely low scoring by modern ODI standards, with 250 passed just once among the six team innings. It was played on low, slow UAE wickets on which no batsmen ever looked fully set. Those surfaces could scarcely be more different to the hard, true decks which have fostered remarkable runfests during this World Cup.
The Adelaide surface has been rock hard this tournament, prompting young Aussie speedster Cummins this week to label it the quickest deck he’d played on this year.
Australia look certain to load up on quicks, with all-rounder Glenn Maxwell the main spinner alongside Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc, James Faulkner and one of Cummins or Josh Hazlewood.
Batsmen have dominated this tournament and may do so again in this match. However, both sides are betting heavily on pace to propel them into the semi-finals.
sd
Guest
yeah ! ronan uae 3-0 irfan was on fire specially against finch .but still nervous " they are unpredictable" as you say.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Absolutely they are not a good fielding side but the point is they are unpredictable and on their day are capable of producing some incredible cricket. I think the loss of Irfan though is too big a blow and will rule out a chance of an upset.
sd
Guest
and in world cup ?drop catches too many.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Well they outfielded Aus in the recent Test series so who knows?
sd
Guest
agreed !unpredictable but "If they field well" no chance vas . definitely pak bowling is key.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Afridi is always difficult to get away.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
The loss of Irfan is really, really big for Pakistan. Before he got injured I really thought their pace attack could cause problems for Australia but now not so much. Irfan really troubled the Aussies with his bounce in the UAE despite the pitches being dead in compared to the bouncy Aussie tracks and his rhythm not being great in that series.
Clark
Guest
Afridi does have the bowing skill to play the Vettori role. His run rate of 4.75 is reasonable and he varies his pace well.
Brian
Guest
Agre on Irfan, especially as from what I recall given his injuries and Pakistanis not playing IPL the Aussie bstsman will have never faced him - quite a rarity these days.
13th Man
Guest
Nah I think Adil is the best option. If this was a normal slow adelaide pitch then yeah Shah would have to come into the equation but all the talk out of Adelaide is the pitch is quick and should be batting paradise. I think Maxi and co would be licking their lips if another spinner plays for Pakistan.
13th Man
Guest
Yeah they are an unknown quantity. But I think the loss of Irfan is big. He has looked unplayable at times. Pakistans order does look shaky: Get through Sarfraz and Shezhad then you have the likes of Haris Sohail, Maqsood and Umar Akmal. Obviously Misbah is good but besides him and the openers, theres not much else. Afridi not the same as he once was. Having said all that I still feel very nervous, if they are on it should be very close!
Brian
Guest
Agreed Shah is more likely to worry the Australians, especially in a chase of 250 where the pressure is on. I don't think Mishbah expects to win but if they can get a score the pressure will be all on the Australians. 100 tri-series wins will be useless if they lose on Friday night.
Brian
Guest
I can't see Pakistan winning, and certainly not convincingly. Could be different with Irfan, and especially if they had Ajmal too. If Pakistan field well it could be close. Smith & Clarke aside our batsman are hardly known for digging in, so if they take their chances it could be very close. Having said that the chances of Pakistani fieldsman taking their chances are somewhere between low and very low. Hopefully Pakistani cricket sorts itself out, their bowling depth is probably the best in the world when you consider that attack Ronan has mentioned should really be their 2nd string attack after Irfan, Ajmal & Mohammed Aamer.
Paul Giles
Guest
It comes down to is the fourth quick a better option than Shah? it has nothing to do with Haris Sohail being able to bowl a few overs of part-time spin. If you think the fourth quick is the better option, then that is the reason why you pick him. I can't see Adsil giving the Aussies any headaches but Shah may be the match winner the Pakistani's need.
Sideline Comm.
Guest
Just as a side note, I was very interested to see that the bookies (sportsbet) rate the West Indies a better chance to beat New Zealand, than Pakistan to beat Australia. I would have though it the other way around.
Targa
Guest
Nah, I'd go with Afridi as the main spinner. Haris Sohail is a more than useful back-up 6th bowler if needed
Paul Giles
Guest
You should only pick a player to suit the conditions if it is a line ball decision. Picking an average spinner at the S.C.G in front of a quality quick bowler is silly, same goes for picking an average quick at the W.A.C.A in front of a quality spinner. With Irfan out, I think Pakistan should gamble and pick Yasir Shah. He really impressed me in the tests in U.A.E last year and bowled well in the warm up games but got dropped because the Indians got hold of him, not the first or last spinner to take punishment from the Indian batsmen. There's a chance the Aussies could smash him all over the park but there is an equal chance he will take 4/40 and keep the Aussies to a low score, 3 quicks and 2 spinners seems like a good mix for Pakistan.
Vas Venkatramani
Roar Guru
sd, the true indication of the health of Pakistan cricket can be viewed by the quality of their fielding. If they field well, Australia should be very careful. All things said, Australia should win this, as Ronan has alluded, but there is no room for complacency against a Pakistan team that often determines for itself whether it wins or loses. This game could be anything from a thumping Australia victory (most likely), to a thumping Pakistan victory (less likely) to anything in between. You just do not know with Pakistan.
Andrew
Guest
Im glad that Pakistan have picked the bowlers to suit the conditions rather than teams picking their usual attack and think it will work in Australia and fail. Can't see Pakistan winning this one. I'd imagine Australia will either bat them out the game or chase the score in 40 odd overs.
sd
Guest
massive difference ronan pakistan fielding absolute joke?pakistan batting (misbah,sarfarz) aus batting no.8 faulkner avz 40 above .afridi bowling ? and if it reverse ?for australia (clarke smith warner )but for pak 55/all out starc 9/10. pakistan captain Misbah-ul-Haq says the side has nothing to lose against Australia ." apart from the game" .exciting contest !