The betting suggests that the Golden Slipper is as good as over and that Gai Waterhouse will equal her father, TJ Smith, and his record of six Slipper winners.
But is that the case? I’ve gone through each of the final 19 runners to help you find the winner.
Vancouver
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 16
1200m Record: 1: 1-0-0
Career Highlight: 2015 Todman Stakes (1200m) winner
Yours truly is sitting pretty at $15 and $6 for this race with Vancouver, and I dare say I won’t be standing too far away from the queue, because he just looks so much better than the rest.
The doubters were heavy on him after his first barrier trial this time in, but the blinkers went on and he was outstanding in the Canonbury Stakes (1100m), then trialled brilliantly before producing one of the best Slipper lead up wins in recent history, spanking his rivals in the Todman Stakes (1200m).
Don’t worry about the barrier. The great ones can overcome adversity, and wide barriers have been successful in recent years, with the likes of Phelan Ready, Sepoy and Mossfun overcoming awkward draws to win this race, and I think Vancouver will.
Predicted finish: first
Headwater
Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes
Jockey: Glen Boss
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 11
1200m Record: 1: 0-0-1
Career Highlight: 2015 Silver Slipper (1100m) winner
Prior to the Sydney Autumn, he was the boom horse touted as the one to beat in the Slipper. Looked all good after he spanked an ordinary bunch in the Silver Slipper (1100m), but when he was forced to do some actual work in the run in the Todman, he put up the white flag before the home turn.
He didn’t pull up 100 per cent according to the vet report, but gee it’d be one of the great turnarounds in form if he was to win. But he is in the stable that won the race last year and on a couple of other occasions, while there is no better big race rider in the business than Glen Boss, and he has won this race twice.
Predicted finish: 14th
Furnaces
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 1
1200m Record: 1: 0-1-0
Career Highlight: 2015 Todman Stakes (1200m) runner up
Probably the second seed of the Godolphin quartet in the race. Looked very sharp in a trial before running in the Todman where he led and carved out a brutal first 600m (34.2), and then Vancouver left him for dead. I highly doubt he’ll turn the tables on Vancouver, but he has gate one, Bowman rides, and he has upside.
Predicted finish: fourth
Haptic
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: James Doyle
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 3
1200m Record: First Attempt
Career Highlight: 2015 Lonhro Plate (1100m) winner
The most interesting of the Godolphin quartet. He probably lacks the brilliance of the other three, but what he does have is race sense. He jumps, he runs, and he does everything. Two from two, including the Lonhro Plate win when beating home Furnaces.
He won’t be too far away from the gate, trialled very well at the start of the month and James Doyle rode really well last Saturday at Flemington. Only query I have with him is running a strong 1200m.
Predicted finish: seventh
Exosphere
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: James McDonald
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 10
1200m Record: 1: 1-0-0
Career Highlight: 2015 Group II Skyline Stakes (1200m) winner
The other dominant Slipper lead-up winner was this bloke, who produced a stunning turn of foot to win the Skyline Stakes (1200m) at Warwick Farm, coming from last on the turn and picking up his rivals in a couple of strides. He did race against inferior opposition to that of the Todman runners Vancouver smashed up, but the ability is there with Exosphere, and like Vancouver he is versatile and will be very strong at the end of 1200m.
Predicted finish: second
Ready For Victory
Trainer: Mick Price
Jockey: Nick Hall
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 9
1200m Record: First Try
Career Highlight: 2015 Listed Festival of Racing 1000 (1000m) winner
Looked very slick at the jump outs before debuting down the straight at Flemington. He did come off the bit a fair way from home, but he kept finding and really surged late to beat the speedy Heatherly. I will say that the win, on face value, was flattered by the fact Heatherly was paddling more than the winner attacking the line.
The path towards this race is interesting but it almost came off with Mosheen in 2011 when she won her debut at Caulfield then ran two weeks later and ran a close second to Sepoy. Looks a Caulfield Guineas horse for the Spring, but he should run well.
Predicted finish: ninth
Odyssey Moon
Trainer: Rod Northam
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 13
1200m Record: 3: 0-1-1
Career Highlight: 2014 Inglis Nursery (1000m) winner
There is a real sense of timing with this horse. Rod Northam is a gun trainer from Scone who trains his horses to absolute perfection, and he said right after the Nursery win that his sole focus will be the Slipper.
He sat on speed last week in the Pago Pago Stakes (1200m) and toughed it out very strongly when second to Tarquin. That run was tough, so here it could go two ways – it’ll strengthen him right up for a serious crack at this, or he will fall in a heap and run near last.
I tend to think the first scenario will occur, the owners have paid the $150,000 late entry fee and the second best rider in the world, Ryan Moore (Joao Moreira being the best), takes the ride.
Predicted finish: sixth
English
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 6
1200m Record: 1: 1-0-0
Career Highlight: 2015 Reisling Stakes (1200m) winner
Sharp filly for Gai who produced a stunning debut win at Kembla before being given a little freshen, spanking them in a trial before going to the Reisling and getting the job done there, aided by a cool and confident ride from Shinn. I said weeks ago this girl wasn’t a $51 chance, and she is at her right price now at around the $13 mark. Doubt she can win, but she can certainly place with a sit off the likely hot speed.
Predicted finish: eighth
Reemah
Trainer: David Hayes and Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 15
1200m Record: 1: 0-1-0
Career Highlight: 2015 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) runner up
Still a maiden, but she caused nearly one of the great Group I boilovers in the Blue Diamond where she looked set to go past Pride Of Dubai but she just peaked on the run late. Very hard for maiden gallopers to win this race and it looked to be a fairly average edition of the Blue Diamond compared to recent years. I don’t think it’s the right form reference for a Golden Slipper.
Predicted finish: 12th
Speak Fondly
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 12
1200m Record: 2: 1-1-1
Career Highlight: 2015 Magic Night Stakes (1200m) winner
Toughed it out so strongly to win the Magic Night last Saturday after doing a stack of work early on in the race. The problem is that it was a bunched finish, and that generally means the form can’t really be followed with a great deal of confidence, but she is in the right stable and has one of the best in the business in the saddle.
Predicted finish: 13th
Fireworks
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 14
1200m Record: 1: 0-1-0
Career Highlight: 2015 Widden Stakes (1100m) winner
Was having her first run since the Widden when storming home late to run third to English in the Reisling. I am not sure if that form reference is the one to follow in terms of finding the winner here, but with Fireworks, you know what you’ll get. She’ll get back, wide with cover and look to blouse them late. Lacks the class and brilliance, but will be strong late.
Predicted finish: 10th
Haybah
Trainer: David Hayes andamp; Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Steve Baster
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 2
1200m Record: First Try
Career Highlight: 2015 Cinderella Stakes (1050m) winner
Had the perfect run off the hot speed to win the Cinderella last time out, albeit the margin was narrow and she really didn’t find the line with purpose. She has had plenty of experience, which will hold her in good stead, but I seriously doubt she’ll run a strong 1200m to feature here.
Predicted finish: 15th
Ottoman
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: William Buick
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 8
1200m Record: 1: 0-1-0
Career Highlight: 2015 Reisling Stakes (1200m) runner up
Did a stack of work in the Reisling and stuck to the task very gamely when second to English. She’s an interesting one. The ability is there, but she does plenty wrong. Buick rides, she’s drawn well and will definitely get a strong 1200m with the right run and correct racing manners.
Predicted finish: 11th
Lake Geneva
Trainer: Michael, Wayne andamp; John Hawkes
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 5
1200m Record: 1: 0-0-1
Career Highlight: 2015 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) placegetter
Lake Geneva ran an absolute beauty in the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) when a close up third to Pride Of Dubai after getting back and held up at various stages in the race. She is the one with upside and is in the right stable. Only query is that maiden gallopers don’t win Slippers. The lone horse to do so in the great race was Sweet Embrace in 1967.
Predicted finish: third
Single Gaze
Trainer: Nick Olive
Jockey: Kathy O’Hara
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 16
1200m Record: 2: 0-1-1
Career Highlight: 2015 Black Opal Stakes (1200m) runner up
Connections paid the $150,000 late entry fee, which does give off the vibe that the stable is confident of a forward showing. Her last two runs have been outstanding, starting off with her third in the Magic Millions Classic (1200m) to Le Chef before being spelled and resuming in the Black Opal Stakes (1200m), where she was three and four wide throughout yet still savaged the line to run second.
Kathy will have to go back from the gate and look for cover, but take aside Vancouver, and no horse will finish the race off better than this filly. I’d have her higher up in the finishing order, but I am just worried as to how far back she’ll get. But she is in this race right up to her ears and looks crazy overs at $51.
Predicted finish: fifth
Look To The Stars
Trainer: Clarry Conners
Jockey: Craig Williams
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 19
1200m Record: 3: 1-1-0
Career Highlight: 2015 Warwick Farm Maiden (1200m) winner
She’s hit the line with purpose at her past two starts, but this looks beyond her.
Predicted finish: 16th
Serenade (first emergency)
Trainer: Mike Moroney
Jockey:
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 7
1200m Record: 3: 1-0-1
Career Highlight: 2015 Canterbury Maiden (1200m) winner
Worked home very strongly in the Magic Night, like Look To The Stars. But she’s first emergency and is unlikely to get a run. But she is one to follow heading towards the Championships.
Predicted finish: 17th
Racy (second emergency)
Trainer: Gery Portelli
Jockey:
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 4
1200m Record: 3: 0-0-1
Career Highlight: 2014 Warwick Farm Maiden (1000m) winner
Didn’t do much in the Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m) behind Always Allison, and is second emergency.
Predicted finish: 18th
Heavenly Hand (third emergency)
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Jockey:
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 17
1200m Record: 2: 0-0-0
Career Highlight: 2014 Kembla Grange Maiden (1000m) winner
Did nothing in the Magic Night, and is third emergency.
Predicted finish: 19th
My Golden Slipper finishing order
1. Vancouver
2. Exosphere
3. Lake Geneva
4. Furnaces
5. Single Gaze
6. Odyssey Moon
7. Haptic
8. English
9. Ready For Victory
10. Fireworks
11. Ottoman
12. Reemah
13. Speak Fondly
14. Headwater
15. Haybah
16. Look To The Stars
17. Serenade
18. Racy
19. Heavenly Hand
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Reason I tipped her for third was because she was very unlucky in the run, and she was a month-ish between runs. As you'll see in my review within the next 24 hours, IMO, the Slipper this year was very weak outside Vancouver. He is a superstar this horse. He'll win the Sires and Champagne also. Could even develop into a legitimate Cox Plate horse in the Spring
kv joef
Roar Guru
yes, thats right Tim ... Blue Diamond was run a week after Headwater demolished the Silver Slipper. preceding the BD, both Headwater and Vancouver had been working very well at Randwick and were already touted as GS aspirants. As Tm. Snowden said - PoD is still maturing and there is little doubt we will appreciate an extended trip without the hustle and bustle of a v.quick slipper ... and it will be. 2nd prize in the GSlipper is $1/2mill ... but from there reputation and prizes start to fade.
Tim
Guest
I think snowden said they'd like to head to the sires from memory???
kv joef
Roar Guru
Agree Tim, I think the horse (PoD) the BD winner is destined for greater things. Tm. Snowden have proven excellent judges and not to keep him in the slipper or pay the late nom. is a mystery? Maybe they seen something at their home track (Randwick) that may have influenced their decision ... big call, sidestepping a $2mill 1st prize and that times 5 or more as a stallion. Wonder who they noticed --- maybe one of Gai's, or Tm Hawkes ... they did have competitive benchmarks in the prelims - Wolf Cry and Paceman ... this ace trainer team put together Sepoy and Earthquake for both the BD and GS ... maybe we might see 'the reason' tomorrow :)
Tim
Guest
How can you say its a weak blue diamond when you're tipping the horse that ran 3rd in that race to run the same again? Or do you think the slipper is also weak?
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
True, but Single Gaze has already beaten Exosphere the day it was a massive blowout chance, I'm not saying lightning strikes twice and you're probably right . But still worth a go.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Interesting re SINGLE GAZE Brent. I had the winner of the Black Opal Takedown because he beat the time of BM70 horses the start before at Hawkesbury from memory. 3rd horse out of that race was Secret Trail who absolutely bolted in last Saturday at the Gold Coast. Now take into account that Takedown was 6+ lengths behind EXOSPHERE on debut and it won with a leg in the air that day. I reckon EXOSPHERE might have 6L on Single Gaze, and a lot of these others. Only Vancouver and maybe Ready For Victory have me concerned on form/times,breeding etc.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
This years edition of the Blue Diamond was very poor compared to recent years. If any of the better Sydney youngsters raced in it, they would have spanked Pride Of Dubai, Reemah and co. David Hayes has had two Slipper runners in the past five years. Fast N Rocking ran in the 2013 Slipper and ran fifth to Overreach after running second to Miracles Of Life in the Blue Diamond which was followed by a second to Criterion in the Todman. His other Slipper runner came in 2010 when Shaaheq ran 10th to Crystal Lily. He ran second to Star Witness in the Blue Diamond. The 2010 and 2013 Blue Diamond had far more depth than what Reemah faced. I just have real queries about the Diamond form this year, plus she started 100/1 in the Diamond, and now you're being asked to take $35 for a horse that is still a maiden.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Had she drawn a barrier, I'd have her clearly in the top three. Her runs in both the Millions and Black Opal were enormous, in particular the latter given how much work she did out wide. Just worried she'll get too far back.
Cameron Rose
Expert
David Hayes always seems to have one that runs well at odds in the mad scamper, and the Blue Diamond form usually stacks up to have one in the top four or five in the Slipper. I think Reemah goes into multiples at odds.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
I watched Single Gaze nearly win here on Black Opal Day a few weeks back. It came from nowhere to nearly win the race, if it gets a better start it will show something.