The Melbourne Autumn Carnival for 2015 is done and dusted after the William Reid Stakes (1200m) on Friday night at Moonee Valley. So, what have we learnt?
We have learnt, in my humble opinion, that the times have changed, and that the quality of horse flesh in Victoria is very, very weak.
It all started on Valentine’s Day at Caulfield with the C F Orr Stakes (1400m), which was won in dominant fashion by Dissident. He beat home Entirely Platinum and Mourinho.
Form out of that race has been terrible with the exception of Spillway winning later on in the Autumn as well as Mourinho winning the Peter Young Stakes (1800m) a fortnight later. And as for the winner, he failed at his next start also.
Seven days later came Black Caviar Lightning Day at Flemington, and Lankan Rupee produced a stunning turn of foot to win first up, beating home Brazen Beau and Deep Field. Brazen Beau came out and smashed Lankan Rupee at their next meeting in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m), and the beaten brigade, outside Brazen Beau, have raced three times since and have failed.
That fortnight later was Blue Diamond Stakes Day, with the feature race won by a Sydney colt in Pride Of Dubai. That form out of that race has been ordinary also bar Lake Geneva, who ran a cracker in the Slipper. Outside of Lake Geneva, the beaten brigade have raced seven times between them since for no wins, which is unlike the norm when it comes to previous Blue Diamond editions.
Two other Group 1 events were run that afternoon, firstly the Futurity Stakes (1400m), won in brilliant style by Suavito, who beat home Smokin’ Joey and hot favourite Dissident. The race in general was really messy in a stop-start affair, and the best ride won the race. Suavito went on to win, while the beaten brigade have raced six times since for zero wins.
The Group 1 sprint that afternoon was the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), and the brilliant finishing burst of Shamal Wind provided her with her first major, beating home Under The Louvre, who was very impressive in the Hareeba, and Fast ‘N’ Rocking. The beaten horses have raced 14 times since this event, with the lone win being from Under The Louvre.
Seven days later, the Carnival moved to Flemington for the next two weeks, starting off with the Australian Guineas, which was won by a Sydney horse, Wandjina, beating home an Adelaide runner, Alpine Eagle. Four of the first five home were trained outside of Victoria, with the lone Victorian being Stratum Star, who subsequently got beaten at his next start. Six races have been run from the losers here, for zero wins.
Super Saturday came next and it was left to another Sydney horse, Brazen Beau, to clean up the Autumn riches with a dominant Newmarket Handicap (1200m) win, beating home Chautauqua and Terravista. Lankan Rupee was sent out favourite, but did nothing, and even considering the weight pull he had to give the winner, he was still well beaten on his merits.
The Australian Cup (2000m) was the other Group 1 of the afternoon and it was left to a couple of risky David Hayes-Tom Dabernig gallopers in Spillway and Extra Zero, who cleared away to fight out a thrilling finish. Third, fourth and fifth were trained outside of Victoria, and this field included the reigning Melbourne Cup winner and a host of Group 1 performers. Those Group 1 performers have raced eight times since, for no wins.
The William Reid Stakes (1200m) was the final Group 1 of the Melbourne Autumn and it was left to a former Queenslander, Lucky Hussler, who has had a couple of preps now for the magician that is Darren Weir. The horse was given an absolute gem by ‘Bossy’ and sprinted clear to bolt in. Will this field and form measure up in Sydney during the Championships? Quite simply, no.
Looking at the Sydney Autumn Carnival so far, and Melbourne horses have done just fairly in the majors, running ten times for two wins, a suspect Coolmore Classic win for Plucky Belle and a Vinery Stud win for Fenway, along with two placings, both of those coming from Criterion. With those two wins, the first one, First Seal ran second, and she did the same in the Vinery Stud, dropping back to set weights and against her own age and sex.
Once upon a time, Melbourne horses would dominate carnivals in both states, and have good cracks whereever else, whether it be Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth. Now, I’m just not sure.
Bondy
Guest
I think Adams overall point may read what sought of impact is M Kavanagh, P Moody, M Price, D Weir having on the Big Melbourne race meets where they've been relatively quite of late in taking some of the major feature races ..
Casper
Guest
My perception, without going in depth looking for evidence like Adam has done, was that the 2015 Melbourne Carnival has been overall weaker than past years. That's just an observation and might be proven wrong down the track. The interesting part of the State V State argument is who gets to claim the imports as theirs. The Japanese horses will, and already have made a decent impact as long as the tracks aren't too wet, because i can't see any wet track form for most of them. Unfortunately, there's not a lot of quality in Qld at the moment but we usually throw up a surprise winner or two at the winter carnival. Hard for RQL to promote the carnival with Eagle Farm shut, Doomben overused and our biggest prizemoney race ever being run on the wrong track.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Completely agree Jason re promotion, in particular Sacred Falls. He is attempting history this weekend, and with the wet weather about, he is a live chance. Yet Racing NSW and the ATC has done absolutely nothing to promote the Championships and its stars where it needs promoting- Mainstream media and not just Sky Racing. I worry for QLD Racing. With Buffering likely retired, who is there to represent the Sunshine State horse flesh wise? The Queensland jockeys eg Zac Purton, Michael Rodd and Tim Bell are doing wonderful things at the moment, but the horses not so much.
Jason Cornell
Expert
Interesting banter - I think we should at least wait for the "Grand Finals" at the Championships but I look forward to State V State stats. I think the racing jurisdictions could leverage off this by promoting home state hero's. Probably not as prominent this year - but I thought Rqld should have promoted Buffering more. Examples could be better odds or promotions on home tabs, exclusive Ownerforaday experiences and for cult horses like "The Cleaner" full blown marketing campaigns and activations. I must say I am somewhat not engaged nor been impressed re the promotions for The Championships considering the barrier draw is tomorrow morning. Seen any promotions re Sacred Falls going for a 3rd Doncaster. This TJ is outstanding - one for the ages! Thoughts?
Cameron Rose
Expert
Based on TAB odds, Famous Seamus and Earthquake are equal 6th in the market for the TJ Smith so that suggests they're somewhere up there for Sydney sprinters. And Rebel Dane is arguably better credentialed than either of them (2nd in the TJ to Lankan last year). You've certainly got a case with your last sentence there, and that would have made an interesting article, but you only mentioned the Championships once in your piece, and that was in relation to Lucky Hussler. It was a hatchet job.
Bondy
Guest
You've spent some time researching your point Adam, it can depend of course were you come from, South Australians do quite well in the Spring in Melbourne P Stokes comes to mind and one could suggest Melbourne horses generally dominate the South Australian Carnival. Although I do believe in general when I'm doing the form a lot of Sydney horses run quicker times than what they do in Victoria in general when marrying the form up when they clash , but then again the Kiwis dominated the Spring Carnival last year in Sydney .
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Dissident and Lankan Rupee won their Group l races last year. This article is purely about the Melbourne Autumn, so I think those points are irrelevant. I certainly wouldn't rate Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus and Earthquake as three of Sydney's best. Ones overrated, the other won a Group l in Brisbane and the other has done nothing since the Slipper. The reason for the lower tier races on big days is simple- the racing taxes. Once Baird pulls through with his promise, the $70 Million will be injected and NSW will challenge Victoria in terms of horse racing power. Happy to be proven wrong, but I just don't see the Victorians making a serious impact for the Championships.
Cameron Rose
Expert
You've certainly taken the long-handle to the Vics there Adam, so allow me to mount some sort of defence. Firstly, you've made a lot of exceptions in this piece. A lot of "the form has been terrible, except for..." Also interesting that the first two Vics you identify are Dissident and Lankan Rupee. Both are Group 1 winners in Sydney, so does that mean anything that finished behind them in that Guineas and TJ Smith are terrible horses? Maybe Zoustar was just average, if he could only beat a poor performer like Dissident by only 0.3 lengths in the Golden Rose. Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus and Earthquake are supposed to be three of Sydney's best sprinters, and they were left well behind Lucky Hussler, let alone Vain Queen and It Is Written, on Friday night. Deep Field was supposed to be up with the best, and look what happened to him in the Lightning. Hasn't looked like it since. The Blue Diamond placing form held up in the Golden Slipper, as it usually does. If the horses behind Lake Geneva in the Diamond are goats, then so too are those behind her in the Slipper. Bull Point got beaten 5 lengths in Suavito's Futurity, and then was two lengths of them in the Doncaster Prelude. Driefontein was in excellent form in Sydney, running two second's, including one at WFA, and then got belted into submission twice down in Melbourne. So the Oakleigh Plate was awful, except for the second place-getter who won a Stakes race since, and third was a nose out of second place in the Galaxy (behind yes, a very good Group 1 mare in Sweet Idea...a mare that has run in three Melbourne Group 1's, and lost to Victorians in all of them - Dissident (that cat again), Trust In A Gust and Bonaria). And the beaten brigade in that Oakleigh Plate - Atmospherical, I'm All The Talk, Nostradamus, Earthquake (again), and Whittington. Back to Sydney you go. No real prize-money for you. Third, fourth and fifth in the Australian Cup were trained outside Victoria. How terrible must they all must be to not get within lengths of the Vic-trained quinella. Retire Foreteller immediately, and strip him of those Cox Plate finishes. First Seal is widely acknowledged as the best filly in the country, and certainly in NSW. Except when two Victorians beat her at Group 1 level, they get deemed irrelevant wins. Before I go, let me just say that I just love those Group 1 days in Sydney which are often supported by a benchmark 50 race or three. And how good are the Sydney fields when they regularly struggle to get more than six or seven in several races? Anyway, Sydney racing has always had more impact in Melbourne than the other way around, much to my chagrin. But I'm not convinced that the basis of this article and the points made are anything but furphy.
Scuba
Guest
Is that the same Sweet Idea who got flogged twice last Spring by Dissident, one of the horses you're using to bag the Melbourne form? I backed her in the Galaxy but it wasn't a strong race - the favourite was possibly the most over-hyped horse in recent history, and the only other runner under double figures was Rubick who is not a Group 1 horse. None of the horses who ran in the Slipper have run since so that form is yet to be tested. Contributer and Hartnell are imports. Some of our best 1400-1600 metre horses were beaten by Real Impact in the George Ryder. The three-year-old group was talked about as being the strongest since Saintly, Octagonal, Filante and Nothin' Leica Dane but the kiwi beat them in the Rosehill Guineas. Leaving aside the NSW/Victoria divide, Australia's good racehorses - sprinters aside - are very thin on the ground.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Well they are trained in NSW. The talent pool in NSW isn't weak at all. That's been proven so far this Carnival with the dominant win of Sweet Idea in the Galaxy and Vancouver and his brilliant Slipper triumph, along with Contributer and Hartnell.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Very fair points there Scott.
Scuba
Guest
Unless you're claiming Contributer and Hartnell as "NSW talent" the Sydney carnival is well on the way to proving that NSW has a weak talent pool as well.
Scott Ferguson (@borisranting)
Guest
Agree with Kevin, I don't ever recall Melbourne horses dominating, and I don't have much hair left these days. Holding their own, yes, but never dominating in Sydney. But that's not my point. The autumn carnival in Melbourne, and particularly this one, has fallen victim to a few factors: 1 - the huge $$ of The Championships 2 - early Easter/earlier programming of Sydney features 3 - the cobalt cases hanging over the heads of Melbourne's leading trainers 4 - change in training schedules where leading stables now want to give their staying stars a light autumn and keep them fresh for the spring.
Kevin Dustby
Guest
I disagree I can't remember a time when melbourne horseflesh dominated in both states. Sydney horses have been cleaning up in the melbourne spring for 20 years and melbourne horses haven't done well in Sydney in a long time