Gary Ablett is still the best, but he's not the most valuable

These ‘best AFL player’ lists have become rather boring. Everybody knows Gary Ablett Jr is the best – he has been for years. Let’s try something new and rate a player’s current value, rather than their current skill level.

For instance, let’s pretend every team in the AFL has the chance to pick either Gary Ablett or Lance Franklin to join their club, not just for this season but for the rest of their careers.

Which player do you think most teams would pick? Considering Franklin is three years younger than Ablett I’m tipping most teams would go with Buddy.

The great Bill Simmons of Grantland writes an NBA player trade-value column every year. This season he rated 22-year-old superstar Anthony Davis more valuable than LeBron James, based on the fact Davis is just starting his career while LeBron is nearing the end of his.

Ablett is the LeBron of AFL. It’s easy to make that comparison, with both players dominating their respective fields for over a decade. The parallels don’t stop there however, as the two superstars share an eerily similar career path.

They both turn 31 this year, were both drafted by their hometown teams, have each won two premierships/championships, and both players switched teams – somewhat controversially – in 2010, with one taking his talents to South Beach, the other to Southport.

Now, just as LeBron’s career is winding down, so too is Gary’s, while superstars like Nathan Fyfe and Dyson Heppell are only just beginning their’s, making them a more valuable football commodity.

Although Ablett could conceivably play into his mid-30s, it wouldn’t be at the level we’ve become accustomed to. How many more Gary-esque years does he have in him? Two? Maybe three? I’m fully expecting and I’m sure Suns fans are hoping by that stage players like David Swallow and Jaeger O’Meara would have passed him by.

To determine which player holds the most value, I’m taking into consideration a player’s potential and ability. I’m not factoring in contracts, as this becomes too messy. We have a fair idea of the salaries Buddy Franklin and Gary Ablett are on, as their deals were highly publicised, but for the rest of the league it’s purely speculation.

On a side note, how great would it be if every player’s contract became public? I’m sure the players would hate it, as all big contracts would be even more heavily scrutinised, but for fans and journos it would make for some great talking points.

Anyway here are the players more valuable than Ablett:

1. Nathan Fyfe – 23 years old
2. Lance Franklin – 27 years old
3. Joel Selwood – 26 years old
4. Scott Pendlebury – 27 years old
5. Dyson Heppell – 22 years old
6. Patrick Dangerfield – 24 years old

Fyfe getting the nod as the most valuable player will be no surprise. On current ability, very little separates the top four, however Fyfe’s tender age gets him over the line.

Heppell and Dangerfield make the list based on their age and potential to improve. Remember this isn’t a ‘who’s better than Gary’ debate, it’s simply a list of the players who have more to offer from this point onwards.

The next group of players are close but not quite there:

Josh Kennedy – 26 years old
Travis Boak – 26 years old
Robbie Gray – 26 years old
Dayne Beams – 25 years old
Tom Rockliff – 25 years old

This time next year the above five players should all be more valuable than Gary Ablett but at this stage the majority of clubs would pick Ablett.

This final group features the next generation of superstars:

Luke Parker – 22 years old
Jeremy Cameron – 21 years old
Jaeger O’meara – 21 years old
Chad Wingard – 21 years old
Marcus Bontempelli – 19 years old

Although the vast majority of teams would choose Ablett over this group of youngsters, that wouldn’t be a wise decision for clubs rebuilding. For teams like Melbourne, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs – who are years away from contending – it wouldn’t make sense to choose 31-year-old Ablett over a potential superstar in the making.

Of course every team values each player differently, but Gary Ablett is no longer the most valuable in the league. The baton has been passed to Nathan Fyfe.