The Sydney Autumn Carnival wraps up this Saturday at Randwick with a strong eight-race card, highlighted by a star-studded field in the $400,000 Group 1 All Aged Stakes (1400m).
I’m really keen on Chautauqua here. His win in the TJ Smith Stakes (1400m) was arguably the win of the Championships given there was dynamite on-pace bias that afternoon, and he came from last on the turn to beat a high class field.
Don’t worry about him and 1400m because he bolted home in the Hawkesbury Guineas and had no luck in the Scone Guineas. He’s the best horse in the race and he should end the Autumn on a Group 1 winning note.
The big danger is Dissident. He hasn’t been seen since running third to Suavito in the Futurity Stakes (1400m), where a misjudgement probably cost the horse another Group 1 win. Peter Moody immediately gave him a break after that and has specifically targeted him for this race. He flies fresh, handles Randwick and is excellent in all conditions.
I was really impressed with the first-up win of Generalife in the Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m). He was heavily backed to win that afternoon, and aided by a brilliant steer the Godolphin galloper shot through near the inside and grabbed Target In Sight right on the peg.
One thing that worth mentioning about John O’Shea since joining the racing giant is that he tends to get the horses wound-up to run really well early on in a prep. Expect him to go close here with the right trip.
Selections
Chautauqua (1) on top, to beat home Dissident (2), Generalife (10) and Shooting To Win (11), who trialled in outstanding order recently.
The other Group 1 on the card is the $400,000 Champagne Stakes (1600m), and it’s wide open now thanks to Sires winner Pride Of Dubai going to the spelling paddock.
In saying that, there are only a couple of winning chances – Odyssey Moon and Pasadena Girl.
Leaning towards Odyssey Moon given he has hard racing under the belt. He ran very well in the Slipper behind Vancouver, then loomed to win the Sires (1400m), but just couldn’t quite get past Pride Of Dubai. That race carried more depth than here, mile should suit and he seemingly is handling the hard prep very well.
Pasadena Girl is the other winning chance. She strung together two wins against ordinary opposition at Flemington before going to the Sires and producing one of the runs of the afternoon when fourth to Pride Of Dubai. That was her first serious hard run, so either two things will happen – that run will toughen her up and she’ll come on from it, or she’ll fall in a heap and run near last. Hoping it’s the first scenario.
There is some value in the shape of Mine Two. She is on the quick back-up after racing last week in the Percy Sykes (1200m) where she wasn’t far off Ottoman in a race which had far greater depth to what she faces here. She did run well behind Takedown over 1400m prior to the Percy Sykes, so she is a chance at odds.
Selections
Pretty keen on Odyssey Moon (2), ahead of Pasadena Girl (8), Mine Two (9) and Takedown (3).
In other races on the program:
. Mohave has trialled well and should go close in the first.
. Wine Tales, back on a firmer track, should improve in the Frank Packer.
. Nancy to confirm she is a class act in the J H B Carr.
. Malice looks one of the better bets on the program in the JRA Plate.
. Craftiness to continue his path towards the Stradbroke by winning the Hall Mark.
. Lucky Lago, at value, to win the final race of the Sydney Autumn.
andrew
Guest
self sense best of the day at caul. great ew bet paying $2 a place. olivier ew in the 4th. sentinum ew in the 7th. thermal current small ew in the 9th at longer odds. in adl. count encosta a free hit ew at the $5, has 53.5kgs and ran 2nd to smart one last time and 1.5 lengths off mourinho last spring in cran cup. burgundy blast can win again. messina nymph too. maastrict looks a good thing with strong formlines. hi world will drift to nice backable odds, matajilly ew. dissident the value in the all aged - atleast on an ew basis.
Casper
Guest
Has been an interesting carnival with some consistent performances and a few shocks. Pity the Randwick track throws up so many variables. Adam, you might be interested in the connection between Chatauqua and Our Boy Malachi. In the Sires Produce and TJ Smith stakes (think it's been renamed the Bruce Mclachlan) at the Qld winter carnival in 2002, Lovely Jubly won both with Top Echelon 4th in the Sires and 2nd in the TJ. Lovely Jubbly is the dam of Chatauqua while Top Echelon is the sire of Our Boy Malachi. Anyway, you look on the money in the All Aged and I reckon Wandjina will finish best of the 3YO's, likes to get out and run and he's shown a bit of fight in Melbourne so if the 'on pace' bias is there, he's a show. If you could just forget the 18 months after Lucky Hussler turned 3 when he couldn't lift his legs, his recent form is second to none and as a young horse in Qld we all thought he'd be WFA material. I think Burbero will struggle from the 13 barrier and again wonder if the 'on pace' bias will help old Strawberry Boy give them something to catch? Maybe he's not a Randwick horse, his best form is at Rosehill. it's only a benchmark 100 so Tales of Grimm from the inside gate might also give lie to his last run.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Completely agree re Burbero. On paper, he has these covered, but I loved the trial of Lucky Lago prior to the first up run
Brin Paulsen
Roar Guru
Nice write-up Adam. Concur with Will that your write-ups have been top notch this carnival. I hope you had a few sheckles after spruiking Grand Marshall last week. I was deadset laughing at your statement that the Magic Man off for Cassidy was beneficial but you're clearly a better judge than me! Have to agree with Chautaqua. That TJ Smith run was the biggest of the day by a long margin and if there's even a remote chance of pace in the race (which there should be) there's no reason to think he won't be coming home with a wet sail over the top of them. A good track should just means he wins by more. In the Champagne I think I'll go the other way between the two chances but they're about right in the market given the question mark on how Pasadena Girl will recover after that big effort. For mine she's the more talented of the two but I guess we'll see. The only other standout I can find on a day of tough racing is Burbero in the last. $5.50 fixed at the moment seems juicy. Has the George Ryder form and is back to a benchmark 100. I guess with Medcaut on the up and a couple of other decent things coming back fresh the biggest question mark is whether he's over the top. If he falls off the cliff my money will go with him!
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Yeah, the trial was "quiet" wasn't it! Still... he's at long odds for a reason. I hope you got on Amanpour when I tipped her last week though?
Addington
Guest
Good preview as usual Adam. Glad you popped Takedown in for 4th ....I have taken the $6.50 as I see so much upside in him .......whilst surely Private Secretary $4.00 at Bet365 was the best 'overs' ever seen in the history of horse racing ! ....She can carry on winning in my book.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Cheers Will :) much appreciated His trial at Warwick Farm was terrible, and the form out of that expressway hasn't held up at all, with no subsequent winners in some 10+ starts. Good luck to you and your flutter on him, but personally, he should be a $151 chance.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Thanks Adam, for this and for all your work throughout the carnival, it's been great. I've got a bit of a knock out hope in the All Aged - Weary. Stop laughing down the back, and listen. First up this prep he won the Expressway over 1200m, then ran a really good third in the Apollo (1400m) just over a length and a half behind Contributer (and ahead of Lucia Valentina, Silent Achiever, He's Your Man etc). Third up he was a little disappointing in the Chipping Norton, but there were excuses (he was last and three wide the whole way) and then he finished off well in a leader dominated George Ryder. Rather than push on to the Doncaster, Waller elected to freshen him up for this race, where he ran a really good second last year. I think 1400m is his best distance, and he always sprints really well fresh. Look, I'm no knock on Chatauaqua who is deserved favorite in this, but sometimes the fresher horse on the scene can win these late Carnival Group 1 races (who among us thought Grand Marshall would beat Hartnell this time last week, or Amapour would beat First Seal?). Anyway, worth a little speccy each way. Good luck everyone!
peeeko
Roar Guru
Whats the track supposed to be like? if its good you might see some reversals from the past 2 weeks