2015 Kentucky Derby picks and preview

More than 30 years ago I was interviewing Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham, when he told me the key to horse racing and the very essence of the sport.

Whittingham trained the 1986 Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand and the knowledge he shared that day has always stayed with me.

“Kid… horses and strawberries can go bad overnight,” he said.

The 141st running of the Kentucky Derby will be run Saturday, May 2 with a $2 million guarantee in America’s premier horse race. The first Saturday in May shapes up as a calvary charge with 20 horses breaking from the gate.

One year ago it was California Chrome with jockey Victor Espinoza aboard for trainer Art Sherman that captured the event and the imagination of the horse racing public. The chestnut-colour red race horse with the flashy white markings went on to win the Preakness Stakes and was eventually named the American 2014 Horse of the Year.

Often billed as the most exciting two minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby is a Grade 1 stakes race for three-year-old thoroughbreds run over one and a quarter miles (two kilometres) at historic Churchill Downs. Colts and geldings carry 126 pounds (57 kilograms) and it is a test of speed, endurance and luck.

There are 20 horses that have earned their way into the race and here is a breakdown of my top three picks.

1. American Pharoah
American Pharoah is the current 7-2 favourite with good cause. He is coming off a brilliant victory in the Arkansas Derby, in 1:48.52 over the 1.8-kilometre track back on April 11. Owned by Zayat Stables and trained by Bob Baffert with last year’s winning jockey Espinoza aboard.

American Pharoah, by Pioneer of the Nile, also holds wins in the Rebel Stakes, the FrontRunner and the Del Mar Futurity last September. He is a muscular colt with blazing speed and if there are any question marks it is the quality of the other horses that he has dominated. Mike Watchmaker, America’s premier odds maker has compared American Pharoah to former Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. The Slew won the Kentucky Derby back in 1977.

2. Dortmund
Dortmund is the second choice and his odds are currently listed at 4-1. But look for those odds to diminish the closer we get to the starting gate. Dortmund is coming off a superb performance winning the Santa Anita Derby wire-to-wire by four and a quarter lengths despite losing his right front shoe at the start.

Dortmund, by Big Brown, is clearly the best three-year-old racing in California and he captured the $600,000 winner’s share of the Santa Anita Derby in 1:48.73 over the 1.8-kilometre historic course. Dortmund is undefeated in his career and he also holds victories in the San Felipe, the Robert B Lewis and the Los Alamitos Futurity.

Owned by Kaleem Shah, trained by Bob Baffert and is ridden by jockey Martin Garcia. That’s right, trainer Baffert has the top two horses in the Kentucky Derby. He has won the Run for the Roses three times, as well as the War Emblem (2002), Real Quiet (1998) and Silver Charm in 1997.

3. Carpe Diem
Carpe Diem, by Giant’s Causeway, is listed at 10-1 odds. Owned by Win Star Farm and Stonestreet Stable, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey John Velazquez. Carpe Diem is coming off an impressive three-length win at the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4, as a prohibitive favourite in a field of eight three-year-olds, finishing the 1.8-kilometres distance in 1:49.77 over a fast track.

He also holds wins at the Tampa Bay Derby and the Breeder’s Futurity running as a two-year-old. He is one of those horses that we might not have seen his best as of yet and he fires every time. Carpe Diem is also graced by trainer Todd Pletcher’s skills, who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. And Carpe Diem has one of the most talented jockeys in the sport, John Velazquez, who won the 2011 Run for the Roses aboard Animal Kingdom.

If you are looking for a bit of a longshot keep an eye on Frosted (15-1 odds) trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, with jockey Joel Rosario aboard the winner of the Wood Memorial. And if you are really feeling lucky, there’s another Todd Pletcher horse Stanford (30-1 odds), ridden by Florent Geroux. The distance is the real question mark but he has looked great in training.

Anything can happen in the Kentucky Derby, a horse can have a bad trip, get caught in traffic, or a jock can make a critical error. It happens – that’s why they race, and the favourite usually only wins 20 per cent of the time.

Nevertheless, I like American Pharoah, Dortmund, or Carpe Diem to somehow to pull off a victory. Here’s hoping your strawberries don’t go bad overnight.