Richie Porte’s form is hotter than it’s ever been, but can he maintain such a high level until the end of the Giro?
It’s been an incredible early season for Porte: he’s already won the GC at Paris-Nice, the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and this week’s Giro del Trentino. Add in a close second at the Tour Down Under (where he would have won if not for time bonuses) and fourth at the Volta ao Algarve (where he won the mountains classification and a stage).
That’s right, his worst finish on GC for the year so far, out of five stage races, is fourth.
Porte is absolutely flying. A tough 2014 season has been well and truly shaken off. He looks lean, hungry, and powerful. He’s winning time trials (including the national championship) and mountain stages.
He won the Giro del Trentino with a vicious solo attack to win stage two after one of those Team Sky power-climbing exhibitions that spectators love so much. When Porte launched, it was scintillating stuff – out of the saddle in the big ring, with Astana’s Mikel Landa floundering in his wake.
He’s leading the UCI points rankings, making him arguably the best rider in the world at the moment. While the focus of the cycling world has been on the bombastic spring classics, Porte has been playing assassin with ruthless efficiency across the roads of Portugal, Spain, France and now Italy.
It’s reminiscent of Wiggins in 2012, scorching his way through the season taking all before him.
Porte is clearly in better form than any other Giro contender.
His old leader Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo Bank) has been steady, gaining a handful of top-five results, but with his sights set on a Giro-Tour double, he needs to keep his form rising until late in the Giro d’Italia, lest he blow his Tour campaign.
His former teammate Rigoberto Uran (Etixx-Quickstep) is at home in Colombia training at altitude. Uran finished fifth in Catalunya and third at Tirreno-Adriatico, so he is also looking steady rather than spectacular.
Uran has finished second in the last two editions of the Giro d’Italia, and will be motivated after losing the maglia rosa last year in controversial fashion when his compatriot Nairo Quintana attacked descending the Stelvio in the snow, in confusion about whether the race was neutralised.
Last year’s podium revelation Fabio Aru (Astana) is suffering from a stomach ailment and extraordinary speculation after Lotto-Soudal’s Greg Henderson accused him (on Twitter) of using the illness as a cover for a bio passport violation. No doubt there’ll be intense scrutiny on Aru, but his preparation has been so badly interrupted there’s even been talk of switching Vincenzo Nibali in to lead the embattled Astana squad at the Giro before defending his Tour de France crown.
My view is that Astana would be far better served by having Nibali in blazing form at the Tour, than having him half-cooked at the Giro and over-cooked in France.
Aru was sixth in Catalunya at the end of March, but hasn’t raced in April, and I would be stunned if he can improve on his 2014 result with such an interrupted preparation.
Other quality GC contenders are scarce in this Giro. Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R), Ryder Hesjedal (Cannondale-Garmin) and Diego Ulissi (Lampre-Merida) the best of them.
I feel the Giro field is one of the weakest in recent years. It’s a golden chance for Porte to step onto his first Grand Tour podium, perhaps even (whisper it) a win.
I’ve just listed quite a lot of reasons to think that Porte is a shoe-in for the Giro podium, if not the victory.
So why should we have any doubts? He’s in the best shape of his career, he’s been routinely belting the snot out of his rivals at every important stage race so far this season, and his rivals (Uran excused) are either focused elsewhere, ill, or simply not in Porte’s class.
Why? Because form is bloody difficult to maintain for longer than a few weeks at a time, and Porte’s legs have been blazing hot since January.
Because despite his obvious talents, since his surprise seventh overall at the 2010 Giro (as a neo-pro) Porte has never been able to sustain a high level of performance for the full three weeks of a Grand Tour.
Because his best Grand Tour result since that Giro was 19th, at the 2013 Tour de France.
Because riders who can win week-long stage races aren’t necessarily the ones who can win Grand Tours, and vice versa.
Because the weight of Grand Tour leadership at a team with Sky’s exposure and ambition is immense, and he hasn’t coped well when asked to carry it previously.
And finally, this year’s Giro features four high mountain finishes in its final week, when Porte will be at his most vulnerable.
I would dearly love to see Richie Porte converting his potential into a big result. Becoming only the second Australian Grand Tour winner would be immense. Every interview and story about him mentions that he’s found a new focus, discipline, maturity. His year so far has been nearly perfect.
Perhaps it is Richie Porte’s time. We’ll see at the end of May.
Kim
Guest
I hear what you are saying; Wiggins transformed, so Porte can too, into a 3 week race contender. Contador looked pretty strong last year, especially in the Vuelta, furthermore, he is to peak at the Giro, so his form hasn't been off, if you ask me. I hope Porte wins the Giro, but Contador, like him or not, on the bike (he has never been on a clean team), is one of the greatest and most experienced grand tour riders in history, he is clever.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
Everyone used to say the same thing about Bradley Wiggins and he proved them all wrong. Presumably part of the reason Porte tends to have bad days is that he is drilling it on the front of the peloton day in, day out. Alternatively like last year, he has gotten sick. And we haven't seen the Contador of old for some time. Admittedly we didn't get to see much of him at the Tour last year after he crashed out.
Kim
Guest
I understand why people are impressed with Porte' 2015 season. I have followed him since he was at Saxo-Tinkov, great rider, but has never done anything in a 3 week race. Like danish commentators always says, "Porte always has a bad bad day". I see Richie Porte as a one week race contender. Furthermore, we certainly haven't seen the best of Contador, who must be the Giro favorite. I am a Sky fan, but Porte beating Contador over 3 weeks, I don't see it.
Tim Renowden
Expert
I am in total agreement.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
I'm going to back Porte to ride this wave of excellent form and win his first grand tour.
Tony M
Guest
Porte is certainly in the form of his life and there should be no problem, barring training accidents, in starting the Giro in that condition. With the depth of support at Sky he should have a strong team to support him. So the only doubt is can he win a Grand Tour over 3 weeks ? His history suggests he is prone to "a bad day" when he loses control of the race. Lets hope his new level of performance will eliminate this shortcoming and give him a fighting chance to the end against some top competitors, Contador, Aru and Uran will be there until the finish.
Greg taz
Guest
I have noted the drop off in his performance for three week tours too. I hope he can change that this year. Sure he has gotten sick but i think there maybe more to it. Fingers crossed his physiology isnt put together for just one week races.
delbeato
Roar Guru
I assumed the talk about Nibali riding the Giro was prior to the Licence Commission allowing Astana to continue, and as a Plan B in case that decision dragged on until after the Giro started - i.e. ensuring he started at least one of those races. Will be interesting to see if he rides it, but I wouldn't think so - why risk his Tour defence?
Tim Renowden
Expert
Thanks. I am just trying to keep a lid on things! Agree Contador is always a massive threat, and the fact that he hasn't won many races so far this year doesn't mean much, because we know he's building to a later peak. But I say the field is weaker because apart from Contador and Uran, I don't see many riders who can beat Porte head-to-head. There are always surprises in the Giro, but there's not a lot of GC pedigree named so far. Nibali would be one. He lacked top end at LBL last night, but that's no surprise. He knows how to peak when it matters. If he rides the Giro it would be a huge knock to Richie's chances (but I still think they should hold him back for the Tour).
delbeato
Roar Guru
excellent analysis Tim. I'm more optimistic about Richie's chances though, as: 1. mostly he's been busy turning himself inside out for team leaders to perform strongly throughout a 3 week Tour 2. his problems with 3 week tours seem to have sometimes been getting sick 3. he was good at last year's Tour until he got sick 4. he's surely learned a lot about leading a team in previous unsuccessful attempts I'm unsure I'd agree the field is weak. Contador is always a major foe - as he is deliberately keeping a lid on his form, we don't really know what he'll be like in week 3 of the Giro. except that we know he is usually deadly.
Aljay
Guest
Richie might not yet know what it takes to win a GT, but Sky does. I think that team wide knowledge should help him a long way. This is definitely the best chance he has ever had and perhaps the best he ever will. It's now or never for Richie. This also adds to the discussion about the Road Nat's and TdU being so early in the season. Two very important races that would be better in the last weeks of Feb.
Tim Renowden
Expert
It looks like he'll have David Lopez, Leopold Koenig and Sebastien Henao - all very capable in the mountains (Koenig was 7th in the Tour in 2014). I also expect Kosta Siutsou to be added to the squad (he rode well at Giro del Trentino). So, a different train but still powerful.
Sam Brown
Roar Guru
Had there been any word on what kind of team Sky will support him with? Will he get to benefit from the Sky train leading at the front of the race like Froome and Wiggins have previously.