Round 5 shapes up as a huge round with Mick Malthouse to break the all-time coaching record, the Swans and Bulldogs to meet in an SCG blockbuster, and the first Showdown to determine which South Australian side is really the contender in 2015.
Carlton versus Collingwood
Having opened their account for season 2015 at the expense of St Kilda in Wellington last weekend, Carlton will be out to ensure coach Mick Malthouse celebrates his record-breaking 715th VFL/AFL game as coach with a win against his old club, traditional rivals Collingwood.
When plotting this year’s fixture late last year, the AFL asked Malthouse which club he would like to break the McHale record against, and not surprisingly he chose the Pies, the side he coached to the 2010 premiership.
While the Blues will be out to ensure the milestone is celebrated with a win, his old mob will be out to ruin it, and there is every chance of it happening given Malthouse has yet to taste victory against the club he left at the end of the 2011 season.
The Pies are coming off an impressive Anzac Day win against Essendon last week and currently sit third on the ladder with three wins and just one loss, that being against the Adelaide Crows by 27 points.
It comes to show that they have moved on from the departure of Dayne Beams, and the long-term knee injury suffered by Brent Macaffer against GWS in the penultimate round of last season.
Accordingly, the Pies will start favourites to defeat Carlton on Friday night, but the Blues will be keen to lift for their coach Mick Malthouse to ensure that he celebrates his record-breaking milestone with their first win over the Pies since 2012 and first since he took over from Brett Ratten at the end of 2012.
Prediction: Collingwood by 18 points.
Richmond versus Geelong Cats
For the first time in a long time, the Geelong Cats are under pressure, and rightly so following their worst start to a season for eleven years.
Last Sunday’s 16-point loss to North Melbourne, their first at Simonds Stadium against a Victorian club for eight years, has left the club with just one win from their opening four games and down at 16th on the ladder.
It’s starting to become obvious that the Cats’ long period of sustained success, which saw the club win three premierships, produce two Brownlow Medallists and multiple All-Australians, as well as a lengthening injury toll, is starting to catch up to the current squad.
Still, Chris Scott’s men should start favourites against Richmond, to whom they have only lost once since 2000, especially with the Tigers coming off a very poor performance against Melbourne in the Anzac Eve match.
Their coach Damien Hardwick slammed the side for not being hard enough and even so it will be hard seeing them bounce back against the Cats, a club that has given them hell since the turn of the millennium, none more so than the humiliating 157-point defeat which kick-started the Cats’ long period of dominance.
With both clubs under the pump, it will be interesting to see which club responds on Saturday afternoon. While the Cats should beat the Tigers, it won’t kick-start another period of long dominance like the aforementioned 157-point win against the same club did eight years ago.
Prediction: Geelong Cats by 24 points.
Sydney Swans versus Western Bulldogs
Prior to the start of the season the solitary match between the Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs for the year shaped as a likely mismatch.
The Swans were coming off another successful season only tarnished by the grand final loss to Hawthorn, while the Bulldogs lost their captain, coach and CEO in tumultuous circumstances after their third consecutive bottom-five finish.
Oh, and not to mention that the Bulldogs also lost their reigning best-and-fairest, Tom Liberatore, to a season-ending knee injury during the NAB Challenge.
But any fears of a one-sided match have been set aside for now, with both sides on three wins and one loss for the season and playing contrastingly exciting brands of football four rounds into the new season.
The Swans started off with three consecutive wins against Essendon, Port Adelaide and GWS before a poor first half proved to be their downfall against Fremantle.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, thrashed the previously unbeaten Adelaide Crows by 57 points to prove that they are tracking well under rookie coach Luke Beveridge, despite the adversities the club faced at the end of last season.
Their first visit to the SCG since 2012 will provide an acid test of where the Bulldogs are at, and for their multi-million dollar recruit Tom Boyd, it will be his first trip to Sydney since leaving the GWS Giants at the end of last season.
As hyped-up as this match may be, the Swans’ home ground advantage and the fact the Bulldogs haven’t won in Sydney since 2008 should swing the favouritism the way of John Longmire’s men.
Prediction: Sydney Swans by 32 points.
Gold Coast Suns versus Brisbane Lions
The first QClash for 2015 was supposed to be an indicator as to which of the Gold Coast Suns and Brisbane Lions would take the next step up this season, but as the only two clubs yet to taste victory this season, this shapes up as a potential early-season wooden spoon derby instead.
Only inaccurate kicking by the GWS Giants saved the Gold Coast Suns from an even more embarrassing defeat, while the Brisbane Lions were equally as inept in its 53-point loss to the West Coast Eagles last Sunday.
As if things couldn’t already get worse for the Suns, former number one draft pick David Swallow and prized recruit Nick Malceski will both sit out the match due to injuries suffered in the 66-point humiliation by the Giants in Canberra last Saturday.
The pair join Gary Ablett Jr, whose comeback from a shoulder injury backfired in the first two rounds, on the club’s growing injury list and their fortunes on the field don’t appear to be improving anytime soon.
Meanwhile, a lot was also expected from the Brisbane Lions in 2015, given they were able to land the likes of Dayne Beams, Allen Christensen and Mitch Robinson during the off-season.
And despite being the best-performed team during the NAB Challenge, the season has not unfolded the way they would have liked, but a win against the Suns on the Gold Coast could be what they need if they are to get off the mark in 2015.
Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 24 points.
North Melbourne versus Hawthorn
The corresponding match last year between North Melbourne and Hawthorn was the one match that best illustrates the Roos’ 2014 season – good enough to beat the best, but not good enough against the worst.
That theory will again be put to the test this Saturday night when Brad Scott’s men face Hawthorn in what was shaping as one of the most anticipated matches of the year until Hawks fullback Brian Lake went down with a knee injury last week.
It was in the teams’ last meeting last year when Lake made headlines for all the wrong reasons, tangling with Roos opponent Drew Petrie and was seen placing him in an ugly-looking chokehold.
Both teams sit on 2-2 for the season with the Roos having defeated the Cats at Simonds Stadium while the Hawks are coming off a narrow eight-point loss to Port Adelaide after having fallen 58 points behind in the second quarter.
Lake and almost certainly Paul Puopolo will join prized recruit James Frawley on the sidelines for the Hawks, who simply need to win if they are to get their premiership defence back on track.
Thus, this Saturday night’s showdown against the Kangaroos will provide a challenge and the loser of this match faces the prospect of falling to two wins and three losses for the season.
Prediction: North Melbourne by 16 points.
West Coast Eagles versus GWS Giants
Having won three of their opening four games of a season for the first time since entering the competition in 2012, the GWS Giants should enjoy their status as early-season bolters while they can, because if past history is anything to go by, then they could be in for a tough encounter against the West Coast Eagles this Saturday night.
The corresponding match between the two teams last year saw the Eagles romp to a 111-point victory with Josh Kennedy feasting on the injury-ravaged Giants defence with eleven straight goals.
Statistics have revealed that Kennedy loves to feast on the AFL’s strugglers; on top of the 11 he kicked against GWS last year, he also kicked 15 goals across two matches against the Gold Coast Suns last year, while he also kicked ten goals against a rebuilding Carlton side in Round 2 this year.
His return of 3.5 (23) against the Brisbane Lions was disappointing by his standards, but it didn’t prevent the Eagles from romping to a 53-point win over the bottom-placed Lions at the Gabba last week.
Thus, the Giants’ defence, which was strengthened by the arrival of Joel Patfull during the off-season, will have their hands full trying to prevent a repeat performance from Kennedy, while at the same time ensuring their forwards aim better at goal after kicking more behinds than goals in three of their four matches.
Their inaccuracy prevented them from achieving bigger wins than what they had against St Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns, while they could have beaten the Sydney Swans had they kicked straighter at the SCG in Round 3.
They will also have to overcome their fear of playing at Subiaco Oval, which has lived up to its name as the “House of Pain” for the Giants, with the club having lost on their previous four visits to the ground by an average of just under 100 points.
Whether they can adjust to the dimensions of the AFL’s largest ground will be key to them putting up a good challenge against the Eagles on Saturday night. However, at home the Eagles should prove too strong despite their horror injury toll.
Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 60 points.
Melbourne versus Fremantle
Fremantle will look to continue its best ever start to a season when they trek to the MCG for only the third time since it lost the grand final to Hawthorn nineteen months ago.
Their 14-point win over the Sydney Swans marked the first time ever they had won four straight matches to start a season, and it followed on from dominant victories against Geelong and West Coast and a narrow Round 1 win over Port Adelaide.
Although many expect them to beat Melbourne this Sunday, it won’t come easy as many think it will.
The Demons have recorded their best start to a season for quite some time, defeating the Gold Coast Suns and Richmond while also suffering losses to the GWS Giants and Adelaide Crows.
It is the first time since 2011 that the club has won two matches by Round 4 and it shows that they are tracking very well under the coaching of Paul Roos as the Dees continue their rise from AFL oblivion.
However, a tough three weeks lie ahead for the club, with their home game against Fremantle to precede a tough pair of matches against last year’s grand finalists, the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn, both at the MCG.
Thus, this Sunday’s match provides the best chance for the club to test itself against one of the competition’s true heavyweights in Fremantle, whom they haven’t beaten since 2011.
While the Dees should play hard, as they have in all but one of their eight halves of football this season, the Dockers should continue their impressive start to a season as they continue to prove that their premiership window has not shut – yet.
Prediction: Fremantle by 40 points.
St Kilda versus Essendon
If Essendon are to prove their worth as finals contenders in 2015, they must not underestimate bottom placed sides like they did last year, when they ended up being the only side to lose to bottom-two sides St Kilda and Melbourne in 2014.
The Bombers have endured a mixed start to the season, with a poor final quarter against the Sydney Swans proving costly in a 12-point loss. That preceded contrasting wins over Hawthorn and Carlton before they fell away in the second half of the Anzac Day clash against Collingwood.
To date the Bombers remain the last Victorian team to be beaten by St Kilda (in Round 5 last year), whose only win for the season came at the expense of the Gold Coast Suns in Round 2.
A poor second half against Carlton in Wellington cost them dearly as they went down by 40 points, and again the club appears likely to be without club veterans Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna for the clash against the Bombers.
Top draft pick Paddy McCartin again struggled against the Blues and was subbed out in the third quarter last week, and appears to have been given no option but to be thrown in the deep end for the third week running.
Just whether the Saints can lift for the match against the Dons remains to be seen.
Prediction: Essendon by 38 points.
Adelaide Crows versus Port Adelaide
The first Showdown of the year brings together two teams that have started the season in contrasting fashion.
The Adelaide Crows were unbeaten until the Western Bulldogs brought them crashing back down to earth last Sunday, while Port Adelaide were slow to get off the mark before defeating North Melbourne and Hawthorn by eight points each in the last fortnight.
Coach Phil Walsh was left fuming after the Crows lost the ground ball differential statistic for the third week running, and threatened to make his players jump off a jetty if it happened – eventually, the players were made to walk themselves into the icy cold water in Glenelg rather than actually jump off the jetty.
The Power, on the other hand, shot out of the blocks against the reigning premiers Hawthorn by kicking the first seven goals then leading by as much as 58 points in the second quarter, before cooling down en route to an eight-point victory.
Everything is starting to come together for Ken Hinkley’s men, who after this match will have completed a brutal opening five rounds of the season which saw them face four top-six teams from last year, as well as the Crows in an away game.
That being said about this game being their home game, the Crows will be expected to respond to last week’s poor effort against the Bulldogs and halt any momentum their cross-town rivals may have after surviving such a brutal opening to their season.
Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 26 points.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Sydney's fragmenting defence. Smith held Walters, he didn't hit the scoreboard. He'll account for for which ever small they put him on, probably Dal. Tabener kicked one, Ted or Reg will easily hold Boyd. The other will take Stringer. Reid was played into form, he'll float back and cause too many problems. Buddy and Tippett could kick 10 between them, and Goodes will cameo in his return match.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
The Cats are in strife. I eluded to the fact in an article just yesterday. Although it was more a comical look at the recent run of outrageous calls being made, there was some weight to it. Their start has been tough. Hawks and then Freo, but you would expect a side that was still a finals hopeful to perform better against the sides they will inevitably meet again in September. I suppose you can include North in the mix but they are actually a good notch under the big 4. To only just topple the Gold Coast, who are looking like only winning 3-4 games for the year was the shock. With Richmond, Collingwood and Sydney to come, they could very well be 1 and 6.
Don Freo
Guest
Hey James...have you worked out yet why your mates laugh at you when you tell them, excitedly, how The Hawks beat Port last week?
James
Guest
Rolled the reigning premiers??? Hahahahahahah did you actually watch the game? If you did you'd see that Hawthorn did not turn up to the first half and still almost beat you despite your lead. 8 points is not the definition of rolling a team champ and Port will struggle to make the top 6. They can't play vs good defensive sides that shut your run down hence why you won't be winning a flag any time soon.
Tommo Willo
Roar Pro
Tommo Willo
Roar Pro
Since that game of 2013 you referred to there have been 2 showdowns and it's 1 all ... google it. There are some more auto selections for the Crows too like Douglas, Betts, Smith, Van Berlo, Thompson I could go on. It should be a great game and I hope its decided by one team winning not one losing !!
Don Freo
Guest
There are 3 defense stories that shape 3 of my tips. I think Hawks' defense is very slow and lacking depth. Brown, Petrie and Thomas should have a field day and Waite could have some fun on a much smaller Gibson Sydney is playing with a fragmenting defence that is outclassed against Stringer, Boyd and Dalhaus. Bullies by over 20pts. Strangely, WC's defensive talls all going down has forced them to fast track some players who should have been fed in years ago. There is real tightness in WC's defence and midfield that will quench GWS and WC's forward will capitalize.
13th man
Guest
agree I can't see a team that just got flogged by the Bulldogs beating a side that just rolled the reigning premiers
13th man
Guest
What West Coast by 60? you must be an eagles supporter. Everyone else is either tipping the Giants or West Coast in a close one. GWS' forwards will destroy the eagles depleted backline
Powerbot
Guest
Oh puh-lease........By 26 points!?!?!? The Crows have been the Power's bunny since the last showdown in 2013 when the Power came back from twenty points down with five minutes to go. They are mentally fragile and have been ever since that shameful defeat. The continual two years worth of bleating about being one kick away from a grand final in 2012 cost the insipid Sanderson his job and the players have only now been reminded by Walsh that this means bugger all in real world AFL. Sadly a good many of them still think this is a reflection of their talent today. The author also seems to have forgotten their pathetic capitulation to the demons last year whilst recalling their unlikely win over the Power. I watched Adelaide last week and was hard pressed to find six players that are automatic selections week in, week out. (Dangerfield, Sloane, Talia, Jacobs, Walker......er.....er....er.....you see my difficulty) Tex Walker was all at sea leading a rabble from FF against the Dogs, Dangerfield is only interested in maintaining stats and fitness until the Geelong coup and I could have made a motza betting on Jaensch looking for Sam Jacobs at EVERY kick in from full back. The simple fact is they have too many passengers when the torch is applied. The only thing worth noting about this match is that it is an Adelaide Crows home game and, for that reason alone, the Power will be out to humiliate these pretenders with the intention of making all those September airfares purchased by the Crows grannies sorely redundant and very cheap for Power fans seeking to cash in. Three wins do not make a season and as the cold months of June and July wear the timid Crows bodies into mincemeat their minds will surely follow.
Jim
Guest
Cats are gone as a threat to win the flag. They've won 1 from 4 so far this year, which isn't insurmountable, until you take into account that 3 of those 4 have been home games at the Cattery, and they've only won 1 of them. The home ground suddenly looks penetrable, the injuries are building up, and many of the older guys are starting to look past it - and the young guys coming in just aren't at the level that geelong have become accustomed to. They'll still maybe sneak into the 8, but none of the big boys will be scared at all by the prospect of meeting the Cats this year, home or away.
Wilson
Roar Guru
and if the Cat lose then I think we can say that the list of older players is starting to hurt them with 9 player over 30 and the AFL Average at 3 that the list may final be getting to Old and the younger Player of the Club are not taking on any of the work load as they should.
Avatar
Roar Guru
True, but do remember the Crows did knock Port Adelaide off the top of the ladder in Round 15 last year. Showdowns do have a tendency whereby the underdog has won, some examples include: * 2011: Both teams struggled that season but none more so than Port Adelaide who just avoided the wooden spoon in the final round. Their first (of three for the year) win came against the Crows in Round 4. * 2007: Adelaide won both Showdowns despite Port finishing higher than them (2nd to the Crows' 8th) at season's end. * 2006: Port Adelaide won the second Showdown that year to cost the Crows any chance they had of winning the minor premiership. * 2004: Adelaide won the first Showdown in Round 7 in a year where Gary Ayres was sacked (and replaced by Neil Craig). Port as we know won the flag. * 1997: Port won the first ever Showdown; Adelaide won the flag. Same in 1998. So you never know what could happen.
Wilson
Roar Guru
Got to Agree with Jim & Chaos I would not under estimate the Giants there game plan and attack out of Defence look very dangerous this year. and with the Eagles Defence line in trouble with the amount of injuries I would say the chance is more 60 to the Giants then Eagles. but I looking more Giants by 14
Athos Sirianos
Roar Guru
It will be interesting to see how the Tigers respond and whether or not they can turn things around before it's too late. A win against Geelong will surely bring some confidence and belief back in the side. A big game for both teams.
Franko
Guest
Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 26 points. Wow. The only thing that may give this prediction some credit is that the team with the worst form tends to win the showdown. Football side v football side, Port win easily but showdowns are funny things.
Chaos
Guest
Even though the Giants have lost the last three games to the Eagles by an average over 100, I can't see West Coast winning by 60. Just too many injuries to the Eagles and the collective improvement of the Giants. Result will be decided by less then 4 goals and personally think Giants by less then 39 at $3.10 (atm) is value bet of the round.
Jim
Guest
I can't see how the Eagles will beat the Giants by 10 goals, despite the Giants record so far at subiaco. they are a vastly improved team this year, and their midfield, as a group, in my opinion, is a class above the flat trackers midfield group. They should get a fair bit of ball from the middle I'd feel. I think it'll be a lot closer than 10 goals - a key question is whether West coast's defence can handle both Cameron (who seemed to find some form last week) and the very impressive McCarthy. I think it'll be a pretty close run thing - I'd be exceptionally suprised if there is more than a few goals in it one way or the other. Port will belt the pretenders Adelaide as well, and I think the hawks will, despite being short of men, account for the Kangas in a good match. Who knows about the Q-Clash - both teams have been terrible this year. GC have a couple more out though (Swallow and Malceski), so I think Brisbane should get the job done.