We are set for a classic Ashes series in England. While it almost certainly won’t be as lofty in standard as the epic 2005 contest, I think it may well be just as closely fought.
We won’t have Shane Warne conjuring the paranormal, Andrew Flintoff ascending to deity status or, probably, the inimitable Kevin Pietersen unfurling bold strokes.
We won’t have Glenn McGrath treading on a ball and bruising Australian hearts along with his ankle. We won’t have an irate Ricky Ponting fuming at a smug-faced Duncan Fletcher after being run out by a substitute.
We won’t have Michael Kasprowicz getting caught off a glove not in contact with the bat handle, gifting England a two-run win and, ultimately, reclamation of The Urn.
What we will have is Mitchell Johnson hunting heads. What we will have is David Warner trying to impose himself on England’s all-time wicket taker James Anderson. What we will have is prolific young Englishmen Joe Root and Gary Ballance getting the chance to prove they are as good as their stats suggest.
What we will have is an Australian team with a woeful overseas record hell bent on winning in England for the first time in 14 years. What we will have is an England line-up sporting grisly Ashes scars desperate to earn back the respect of the cricketing world.
What we will have is a close series. Why?
Because Australia are a far better team now than when they last graced English turf two years ago. Because England are a lesser side than the one which eclipsed the tourists 3-0 in that series.
Because Australia are the superior line-up but come to the field in foreign climes. Because England are the weaker line-up but flourish at home.
This isn’t just wishful thinking by a cricket tragic whose senses are inflamed at the thought of a Day 5, fifth Test series result.
Unless England play to their peak, with Anderson swerving the ball like a UFO, Moeen Ali blossoming into a match-winning spinner, and Root and Alastair Cook churning out tons, they will not dominate Australia.
Unless Australia play to their peak, with Johnson brutalising stumps, Ryan Harris investing in nicks, and Warner and Steve Smith hoarding boundaries, they will not dominate England.
To me, the most likely scenario is that each side will be somewhere below their best. Both have significant weaknesses.
Australia have only three batsmen who are both secure in their places and in good Test form – Warner, Smith and veteran opener Chris Rogers.
They have no clarity about who should bat number three. They have a skipper who made a ton in his last Test but has been famine or feast for the past 18 months as his degenerative back condition has plagued him.
They have an unproven all-rounder in Mitchell Marsh and a proven all-rounder in Watson – as in, proven to be well past his zenith.
They have a wicketkeeper who seemingly is only in the side on the back of good will and leadership qualities, his batting returns having been paltry for 18 months. They have enormous ability, as a unit, but often fail to adapt to alien conditions.
England, meanwhile, have no frontline spinner and no decent fourth bowling option.
They have a fresh opener Jonathan Trott who is not only burdened by the heavy spotlight of a comeback from mental health problems, but is attempting to adapt to a new, more difficult batting position.
They have a skipper in Cook whose captaincy is more wooden than the facial expressions of Hollywood matriarchs, whose batting is as stilted as a Queenslander house. They have their leading runscorer Joe Root set to face a bowling attack which in the past made him resemble a park cricketer.
They have a new ball attack in James Anderson and Stuart Broad which is lethal on its day, but whose ‘days’ are becoming fewer and further between.
They have uncertainty surrounding who is best to lead their side, both on and off the pitch. What England do have is a massive home advantage. They have the luxury of made-to-order pitches, and the comparative mastery of the Dukes ball.
Combined, these two elements are enough to draw them level with Australia in my reckoning. It is a series which, right now, is too close to call.
By virtue of only needing a series draw to retain the Ashes, Australia are favourites in that regard. But as for who is more likely to win the series, it is a toss of the coin.
Australian gun Steve Smith was quoted this week as saying England wouldn’t “come close” to beating his side in the Ashes.
What was overlooked amid the subsequent bold headlines and fierce debate here and in the UK, is that he qualified that statement with “if”.
“If we continue to play the same way we’ve played over the last 12-18 months, I don’t think they’ll come close to us to be honest,” he told Cricinfo.
Right he is. “If” Australia play as well as they did in the last Ashes or during their 2-1 upset of the Proteas in South Africa, they will register a comfortable series win.
But those stunning results were, to a significant degree, a byproduct of Johnson producing a spell of form arguably as astonishing as any in Test bowling history. He hasn’t been even two-thirds as effective since.
While attempting to reclaim such elusive touch, Johnson will have to overcome mental demons associated with his difficult-to-watch failures on the 2009 tour.
This mental obstacle will be at play for many, if not all of the Australians. England, of course, will be under at least as much pressure in front of home crowds and in the crosshairs of the tabloid press.
It promises to be a grand spectacle, perhaps not up there with the greatest Ashes series of all time but quite possibly among the closest.
Duncan
Guest
Good article Ronan except that Trott has retired from all forms of cricket if what the Wikipeda page says on him is correct fourth of may he called it quits I personally think all the talk about Pieterson is just rubbish as he's scored ten hundreds in last seventy seven test matches hardly match winning form and given how unpopular he must be in the English dressing room as not one player has come to his defence It would have been two steps back for them particularly if he failed to score runs I have to disagree about it being a close series if the Aussies bring their a game it's hard to see the Poms getting close they might win one test match but that's about it
Duncan
Guest
Good article Ronan except that Trott has retired from all forms of cricket if what the Wikipeda page says on him is correct fourth of may he called it quits I personally think all the talk about Pieterson is just rubbish as he's scored ten hundreds in last seventy seven test matches hardly match winning form and given how unpopular he must be in the English dressing room as not one player has come to his defence It would have been two steps back for them particularly if he failed to score runs I have to disagree about it being a close series if the Aussies bring their a game it's hard to see the Poms getting close they might win one test match but that's about it
Homer Gain
Guest
Yorkshire, England or both? Anyhow, at least we've got rid of Moores.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Dunno about this "I’d like to compliment the author on resisting his usual pom-baiting". Moreover, your bowling is pedestrian, and your batting doesn't inspire much confidence either.
Homer Gain
Guest
I'd like to compliment the author on resisting his usual pom-baiting (his comments on 2005 are perfectly valid) and coming up with a positive and objective analysis. I think he's over-optimistic about England's prospects however. Rather like Australia in the run-up to the last Ashes in England, England are hamstrung by some waning stars, by some players inexperienced and others temporarily out of form, and above all by a leadership which instills confidence only in the opposition. I'd love to be wrong, but I actually think Yorkshire's 1st XI would beat the current England set up (minus their Yorkshire players obviously). And that even involves throwing Pietersen into the mix for all the necrophiliacs out there. Lees Lyth Ballance Root Gale (Cap) Leaning Bairstow (WK) Rashid Bresnan Brookes Sidebottom V Cook (Cap) Robson Bell Pietersen Taylor Ali Buttler (WK) Woakes Jordan Broad Anderson If this "England" pulled themselves together they might give Yorkshire a game, though any partnership between Taylor and Pietersen might be an interesting study in body language.
CW
Guest
I do not think they have the bowlers to get us out twice on any surface.. Not if they pick the same group that played against the Windies.
CW
Guest
I should imagine a slow, dry turner would suit Fawad and Lyon very much indeed. Australia is improving its play against spin. From what I saw of them in the Windies . The Poms are not improving their spin play. The majority still insist on employing the sweep rather than use their feet.
CW
Guest
Either Smith or Voges at first drop. Smith looked comfortable there in the ODI matches. Could handle the step up in the tests. I would have Voges there. Prefer the rock Smith at four. My top six for ashes. Rogers Warner Smith Clarke Voges Watson/S Marsh/M Marsh
CW
Guest
Johnson as a stock bowler? Please do me a favor. Harris yes. Hazlewood yes. Siddle yes. But not Johnson. There is no guarantee Starc will even be picked for the first test. He was dropped remember against India but played next game when Johnson pulled out. Starc's inconsistency with the red ball has seen him in and out of the test side since 2011.. Hazlewood, Johnson and Harris should be the pace attack for the first test.
CW
Guest
Oh please. Watson three? May have been a half decent first drop once. Not any more. If he has to be in the side make it at five or six. Faulkner has not even been picked in the squad. Mitchell Marsh will likely play at six. Starc has yet to bed down a test place. Besides Josh Hazlewood is the incumbent. Starc was dropped if you recall. So big Hoff should get first bite of the cherry.
Raugeee
Guest
My OZ Eleven for the Ashes. Rogers Warner Watson Smith Clarke Faulkner Haddin Johnson Starc Harris Lyon I would want to keep Starc as an extreme spearhead bowler. 3 to 4 over spells maximum. Faulkner& Watson could share fifth bowler duties and be there as cover in case Harris breaks down. Great thing is all the bowlers can bat. I reckon this side would win 5 - 0 weather permitting.
Nudge
Guest
Thanks Tom. Some of those footy people need to lighten up. I've put my comments in on the article. #bringbackdonfreo
Tom from Perth
Guest
On the the footy page mate. Eg: http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/05/02/dockers-defence-keeps-calm-theyll-carry-winning/
Nudge
Guest
Tom, without being nosey, how do you know he got a 1 month ban.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Yeah fair enough mate.
deccas
Guest
yeah he does know his stuff, and his humour can be entertaining. but you're on his side. He niggles me constantly and when I'm stressing out with end of semester exams I can't handle the guy.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Yes, but the Roar is poorer for it.
deccas
Guest
Don does it in the name of humour, but he deliberately riles people up. If eventually enough of the people he has baited do get riled up enough to actually ask to have him removed he really has no one to blame but himself.
matth
Guest
This latest S Marsh comeback has actually been ok. It should have been, as he has had heaps of practice in coming back to the side by now
Bearfax
Guest
Maybe then he thinks we're Billy Goats Gruff.