Brumbies and Waratahs under the pump as Rebels begin to rise

At Round 14, we are now getting to the business end of the Super Rugby season. The Melbourne Rebels have thrown a huge hand grenade into the mix, trailing the Australian Conference leaders the Brumbies, by only four points.

The current Australian Conference Table is as follows. (Click here for full Super Rugby table)

Australian Super Rugby Conference

Round 15 sees the Brumbies with a bye, the only Australian conference title contender to be in this invidious position.

So let’s look at the home straight:

Coming into Round 14, both the Waratahs and the Rebels have five matches compared to the Brumbies’ four.

The Brumbies have to play one more game in South Africa against the Lions, and then try to come home with a wet sail against the Bulls at home, the Force in Perth and a final home game against the Crusaders.

The Waratahs have their next two matches at home against the Sharks this weekend, followed by the Crusaders. They are then off to South Africa to take on the Lions and the Cheetahs, and finish their campaign against the competition easy beats, the Reds, in Sydney.

The Rebels have the Reds in Brisbane, followed by two games in South Africa against the Stormers and the Sharks. They finish their campaign with two home matches against the Bulls and the Force.

The problem for the Brumbies is that they are playing three of their four matches against potential finalists, with the Western Force only capable of being a disrupter.

The Waratahs are in a good position having to play two finalist contenders in the Crusaders and the Lions, and three disrupters in the Sharks, Cheetahs and Reds.

The Melbourne Rebels are in a good space, also having two finalist contenders to play in the Stormers and Bulls. The Reds, Sharks and the Force are only in a position to disrupt.

This weekend matches will again be very interesting in what has been a tremendous Super Rugby series.

I believe the Rebels should win their match against the Reds and may even come away with a bonus point win, despite the fact they are playing in the Reds’ backyard.

This could see the Rebels at least equal or even overtake the Brumbies, should the latter be defeated by the Lions in Johannesburg this weekend.

The Australian selectors must surely be looking at Rebels No. 8 Scott Higginbotham to be in their starting XV. Higginbotham has gone from strength to strength and his work rate and vision is outstanding.

The Rebels also have the luxury of two ace goal kickers in fullback Mike Harris and No. 10 Jack Debreczeni and a hard working forward pack. They get good service from their No. 9 Nic Stirzker.

If I was an Australian selector I would certainly include Debreczeni in my World Cup squad, given his long range goal kicking ability.

The Brumbies will have a battle on their hands against the Lions in South Africa, given that the latter only sit three points behind the Stormers and the Bulls.

No doubt the Brumbies will be still hurting from their one-point loss to the Stormers last weekend and will be out to redeem themselves. One player they have sorely been missing is Matt Toomua, who has been rushed into the starting 15 at centre. This may just make the difference in this must win clash.

The Waratahs should make it home in their match against the Sharks this weekend. The Sharks will take a lot of heart from their stellar performance against competition leaders the Hurricanes in their 24-32 away loss last weekend.

However, that effort may tell as they come up against a very physical New South Wales side, which can not only play a power game but also has the running backs to cause a lot of damage. The Sharks need to keep the ball in hand and not kick possession away, a grave mistake against the Waratahs.

All in all, it’s another exciting and potentially decisive round of Super Rugby.