Imports should prove they are worthy of running in the Melbourne Cup

By BrisburghPhil / Roar Guru

I’ve previously written about emergency horses and the need to have the best and most in-form horses starting a race. This brings me to the discussion of the Melbourne Cup and the debate surrounding a lack of emergencies for that race.

A field of 24 is always going to have a high-chance of a scratching or two, just by weight of numbers, and the subsequent effects of a scratching on barriers, speed maps, betting, sweeps (and the people who miss out on their bet) and the like go on.

In reality, to any real horse-racing watcher, the debate is nearly invalid because we can’t even get the best field into the race to start with, let alone reserve runners!

In the modern era we have a plethora of overseas entrants each year vying for a start in the race. Punters are left clueless as to what to expect from them because they don’t have to have a run here prior.

To date, only one import has won the race without having a run here prior – Vintage Crop in 1993. A hundred or so have tried and failed, some spectacularly, others by fine margins.

Protectionist won following a fine fourth in the Herbert Power. Red Cadeaux has gone quite close on three occasions, but failed to win. Might he have won at least one of them with a lead-up run?

Why not preclude any import from starting in the race without a run here, and at least let the public gauge what chance it might have in the race?

If it runs poorly in a lead-up race, then it probably has no chance in the Cup anyway. A top-six finish in any of the main lead-up races, such as the Herbert Power or Geelong Cup, is surely a minimum. With a higher quality race, such as a Cox Plate, just running at Group 1 level would suffice, regardless of finish.

Why can’t we get the best field of in-form horses into the race to provoke even more interest, and possibly more betting turnover as a result?

There has to be a solution to the growing problem of inferior big race fields. Maybe those framing betting markets provide the best answer, but it doesn’t take Einstein to figure out that those horses who perform to high standard in key lead-up races should get preference over those that don’t.

The Crowd Says:

2015-05-31T23:23:19+00:00

Boris

Guest


Quality of races, locally and abroad, can vary sharply from year-to-year. The Irish St Leger is usually a target of criticism for field size - Vinnie Roe won it several times, Brown Panther has won it - that race stands the test of time. Get a shocking run of weather or a dominant horse and a standard 10-14 horse field is decimated down to four of five. We could have all the quality controls we wanted if this was a 2000m G1 race we were discussing. But it's not. It's a 3200m race, and there simply aren't 24 Group 1 two-milers in the world, even if every one of them stayed fit and healthy. There will always be dross in the field, and the more Aussie horses you try to squeeze in, the more dross you will encourage. Hopefully a few years of Americain and Fiorente at stud and we will start breeding a greater depth of local stayers. But that doesn't happen overnight, and we need a bunch of patient owners to get on board.

2015-05-31T23:01:53+00:00

Casper

Guest


and tighten up the qualifying lead in races so pluggers like Precedence can't run around in everything bar the Melbourne to Warnnambool bike race just to qualify. I'd be happier on Melbourne Cup day if Precedence went around in the hurdle or lead the fielsd out as the clerk of the course pony. Having a look at last years field, Mr O'Ceiren, Brambles, My Ambivalent, Precedence, Araldo and Unchain my Heart are examples of horses going around so the owners could have their colours in the race. We put too much stock in poor staying races in Australia and form from overseas more than 12 months old. Don't make the raiders start in Australia before they get a MC run, just make sure the overseas form is reasonably current. a lot of those 2800 m + races in the UK and Ireland are hopeless with 4or 5 runners which includes a pacemaker for the top stable elect. Concurrently, set out what Australian races will be considered as 'first rank' qualifiers and which ones are not really worth it. Currently watching the Qld winter carnival, you wouldn't want to decide that Werther qualifies because he beat a Chris Waller stable middle distance barrier trial for his older overseas horses. He may be a good horse, but that form shouldn't get him past the first stage of qualifying and the Qld derby isn't much better.

AUTHOR

2015-05-20T05:40:33+00:00

BrisburghPhil

Roar Guru


Fair enough Andrew but it's not Hong Kong or the Arc is it? It's a 3200m race on the other side of the world. Why is it the French and Japanese want to run here first, but the Brits for some reason don't? Who has been more successful?

2015-05-19T16:30:09+00:00

Peeeko

Guest


Hate red cadeaux, you have no idea hoe he is going to run. You over rate the importance of 3200 m horses on breeding, no one wants them. And no one overseas pays media rights to watch a handicap race at 4am in a Tuesday morning. Horses should be made to have a lead up run so the people who fund racing (punters) have a chance to see its form

2015-05-19T16:28:18+00:00

Peeeko

Guest


you try betting when the horses haven't had a run, it's terrible. They will have a lead up if we make them

2015-05-19T16:20:43+00:00

Peeeko

Guest


Well said Bondy

2015-05-19T15:05:47+00:00

Andrew Hawkins

Expert


Put simply, no. Horses should be able to come here and run first-up in the Melbourne Cup should they desire. To do otherwise is narrow minded and just way too simplistic. Imagine saying to horses who run in the Hong Kong international races, no, you have to run in Hong Kong first. You'd lose three quarters of the visitors and the quality would suffer as a result. The quality of the Melbourne Cup changes from year to year, but denying those who are fresh is silly. I do agree that some changes should be made to the qualifying criteria, though. A stat that so many forget - more overseas-trained placegetters have actually gone into the Melbourne Cup fresh than not. Yes, only Vintage Crop has won it fresh but SO many have finished in the top three going in fresh.

2015-05-19T12:05:01+00:00

Tristan Rayner

Editor


I think Phil's raised some great discussion points, with some excellent discussion in the thread. Boris - ultimately, punters love to have more information on hand and it's very hard to line up form in a Hardwicke! You can understand the reasoning, even if following it exactly might result in Red Cadeaux missing out. But hey, as is continually pointed out and Phil mentions - only one has managed to win without starting here. Part of the message is that they should come earlier and have a run. That said, I like the idea of a top 3 finish in certain qualifying races allowing entry without a run. I like the idea of proven performers in Australia like Red Cadeaux getting a run no matter what - not that many keep having a crack. I also like the idea of some kind of Australian read on how a horse is looking over here that isn't based on 'those in the know' at Werribee. There's no easy answer to that though. Hard to time a training run and have it mean anything.

AUTHOR

2015-05-19T09:43:05+00:00

BrisburghPhil

Roar Guru


Well I definitely agree with that last comment Boris. It's a post more designed to provoke a bit of debate and it's all good so far- Cheers!

AUTHOR

2015-05-19T09:41:40+00:00

BrisburghPhil

Roar Guru


Doh........... I thought I added Crime Scene in my reply.I went looking for it because I wasn't sure what MC it was.

2015-05-19T09:29:34+00:00

Bondy

Guest


Its a great card at Doomben this weekend ...

2015-05-19T07:22:15+00:00

Boris

Guest


Oh great, we get more dromedaries like Unchain My Heart, Mr O'Ceirin, Banca Mo etc just getting in the way of the Group horses. They are fine horses in their own regard and by golly I'd love to own each of them, but they are simply not Melbourne Cup class in the current era. It is an international Group 1 race over two miles, not a country cup. The best horses run a focused campaign choosing their targets, not every week until they win a direct entry race, and then come into the grand finale knackered. Would just put a lot of slower locals in the race, and unless the handicap scale was expanded again, they'd carry only 4-5kg less than the G1 runners from abroad and get lapped. The Breeders Cup only offers a handful of 'win and you're in' entry places, the better horses still get in anyway. Just adds a few more locals to the mix and makes finalising the field easier. Most staying races in Aus that meet the entry clauses are essentially Win and You're In anyway, there are only so many races you can do it in. And the Mornington Cup direct entry prize into the Caulfield Cup has gone down like a lead balloon...

2015-05-19T07:14:41+00:00

Boris

Guest


'Not starting here hasn’t proved beneficial to winning the Cup so why would you not do it?' Plenty of placegetters in that time, who's to say that wasn't as good as they could possibly be? Red Cadeaux has never run better for a start. International trainers are used to preparing their horses without the need to race them as preparation. They race them at their specialist distance and that's it, not in races they can't possibly win along the way. It's just a different training style. Even Robert Hickmott uses that for most of the Williams horses now. Perhaps if we stopped including local horses with no hope like Precedence just because it's trained by Bart...

2015-05-19T07:06:24+00:00

Boris

Guest


The conditions are very close to that already. Unchain My Heart won the Ramsden and still started at 300/1. Each of those horses I listed at >100/1 won black type races in the previous 12 months, it still doesn't make them competitive. Using the Shamus Award example - what difference does winning a race make? Should a G1 WFA horse run on a Sunday at Manangatang just to get a win, when he has been 2nd or 3rd several times in G1s? It's nonsense. Ratings ultimately decide how good a horse is, not cheap wins in dud races. The Melbourne Cup is a genuine Group 1 these days, and the depth simply isn't there in Australia, or anywhere for that matter, to line up 24 genuine Group horses over 3200m. You are trying to fix something that isn't broken.

2015-05-19T06:57:55+00:00

Boris

Guest


Caulfield's a very different track to Flemington - even Protectionist wasn't too fond of it.

2015-05-19T06:56:32+00:00

Bondy

Guest


"Godolphin runners ran 6th in in that race beaten 2L and managed to run second in the Cup to Shocking." The horses name was Crime Scene BP , Vigor was a horse that sat up on the speed I think he was a Grey .. God Bless Shocking terrible ride though ...

2015-05-19T06:46:20+00:00

NaBUru38

Guest


Actually, it would be more interesting if horses came from specific qualifying races, as in American Triple Crown races and the Breeders Cup. This would guarantee that the horses are good, and would bring interest tobthose qu as lifying races.

AUTHOR

2015-05-19T05:32:19+00:00

BrisburghPhil

Roar Guru


There's the Geelong Cup for a start Boris. Why has that gone so out of favour in recent times given the incredible success rate it had in providing winners- Americain, Dunaden to name just 2?. I Even one of the Godolphin runners ran 6th in in that race beaten 2L and managed to run second in the Cup to Shocking. Last year was a poor field and the depth wasn't there, but it hasn't been like that every year. A horse called VIGOR trainer by Danny O'Brien ran third in the CaulfieldCup of 2009 but couldn't get a run at Flemington. That is the kind of thing that bothers me. We aren't talking about the Caulfield Cup anyway, but let's be honest it's not held in the same regard as the Melbourne Cup. Most of the imports that run in it are looking toward Flemington. They can still run 3 weeks+ before the Cup in the Herbert Power. Not starting here hasn't proved beneficial to winning the Cup so why would you not do it?

2015-05-19T01:33:45+00:00

MJ

Guest


What I would do is tighten the qualification criteria. Many of the imports and overseas raiders come to the Cup without having won a race in a while. So the first criteria would be that a horse has to have won a race in the last 12 months (any distance, any class). Then apply the clause of a placing in a group or listed race in a flat race of 2000m or more in the last 12 months and watch the quality of the field increase dramatically.

2015-05-18T23:25:59+00:00

Boris

Guest


Would you rather have a race as slow as the Queensland Cup? It's not the horses just arriving you have to worry about, take a look at the ones listed at 100/1 or more last year: Sea Moon Precedence Brambles Mr O'Ceirin Unchain My Heart All locally-owned, and only one began its career abroad. Are any of those horses denying a run to another which would start under 66/1? I seriously doubt it. Granted, there were several visitors in the 50-100/1 bracket but each were there on merit. European horses run a month apart or more, that's how they are trained. Why impose this rule on the Melbourne Cup but not the Caulfield Cup, which has had several first-run-in-Aus winners (Taufan's Melody, All The Good, Admire Rakti plus numerous placegetters).The Euro horses wanting to run before the Flemington spectacle would probably want a race of 2800m+ ideally which we can't offer them. It's 2015 not 1976. I know Abbott wants to send us back to the dark ages but this is a ridiculous argument. So turnover drops 5-10% on the Cup. Big deal. The economic impact of the Cup carnival is worth far more than the betting on the day. It also helps sell media rights abroad, open up opportunities for Aussie horses, jockeys and trainers abroad. The last seven winners have been stallions - that hasn't happened since the 1890s - it's a far better race now for quality and even breeding. And from that, if Aussie owners ease off their addiction to 2yo racing and have a little bit of patience, we will soon be having locally-bred winners again. You're trying to use a chainsaw to cut off a pimple.

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