Australian airlines have had a tough run over the past 20 years. We saw the very public demise of Ansett, while presently the budget flyers are scraping tooth and nail for every dollar gained on the competition.
In many cases turning a profit has become an after-thought to trying to win greater market share.
Even Qantas, once thought untouchable, are haemorrhaging money in every quarter.
Yet the greatest fear I have for a company operating out of a hangar in Tullamarine in 2015 is the Essendon Football Club.
While I’m sure they won’t go the way of Ansett, there are some huge questions marks hanging over the club’s short-to-medium-term future.
The drugs cloud, or rather hurricane, that has hung over the club for the best part of three years appears to finally be taking its toll on the playing group and coaching staff. The final nail being the supposed green light players got at the start of the season cruelly denied by a WADA appeal.
James Hird looks like a man running very low on ideas from the coaches box, and the players look resigned to another year of waiting for an outcome from ‘peptide-gate’ and are playing accordingly.
In the short term the Bombers, tipped by many to play finals football, are floundering at 4-6 with a difficult trip across the Nullarbor to face the Eagles and then the reigning premiers following the bye. Given their current form it looks likely that they will be 4-8 come Round 13 and their season over.
But let’s be honest, this year is the least of their concerns.
We only need to look at the demise of Carlton in the early-to-mid 2000s to see how draft pick penalties can have a major impact on a club for years to come. While in the short term picking up older bodies like Paul Chapman and Adam Cooney made sense to fill the void, it means Essendon has an ageing list.
While previously successful clubs like Geelong and Collingwood have in recent years tasted premiership glory, selected numerous high draft picks, and continued to be competitive without bottoming out, the Bombers with their draft picks stripped haven’t had that option.
Essendon have not been able to bring in enough top-end talent from the draft, and in their younger brigade only Dyson Heppell is a genuine star, while both Zach Merrett and Joe Daniher are on the way – the latter being an extremely fortunate father-son pick, which came just at the right time for the depleted Dons. They will have a massive void of quality on their playing list from players currently aged 20 to 23 going forward.
If Jake Carlisle decides to move on or is tempted by a big offer, Essendon could find themselves in all sorts of strife. With the drug scandal not going anywhere fast, an ageing list, question marks over Hird as a coach, and a team not destined to challenge for a flag in the near future, keeping high draft-picks and luring free agents will become extremely difficult.
The fans you feel know this and along with suspicions Hird may not be the coaching messiah many assumed, they are starting to question whether standing by him was the right decision throughout these disastrous last few years.
Much like Carlton’s demise following their salary cap breaches, the effects aren’t seen straight away but rather come in the following years when that missed age bracket isn’t available to replenish retiring players.
In reality the Dons need high draft-picks now, but have little talent in which to trade for it – like, say, the Pies did when they moved on numerous premiership stars to avoid bottoming out in 2013-14.
Once again you have to feel not just for the players but for the supporters as they watch another season wasted by the drugs controversy and wonder how long their side will be in the doldrums.
In 2013 the Dons had two magnificent wins in the West during prime time with their back against the wall – a four-point win against Fremantle and a seven-point win against the West Coast Eagles.
Perhaps all is not lost and their revival might start again in the West this Saturday, but it looks very unlikely.
What is more concerning is that sustained success and a premiership could be a long time to come for this proud football club.
Johnny Dalmas
Guest
Neither Carlton or Essendon will win another flag . Ever. When someone writes a history of the AFL in, say, 2050 both clubs will be referred to as dinosaurs that wouldn't adapt to the 21st century AFL. And so like Melbourne in the second half of the 20th century, both have begun a long slide into irrelevance.
WhereIsGene
Guest
They are royally stuffed. If they cop 2 years from WADA as I expect they'll be in for 10 years of pain, if not they'll still be looking down the barrel of a full rebuild and Hird won't survive it. They have close to the oldest list in the competition, a coach who's lack of morality is as glaring as his absence of tactical nous, they've been penalized draft picks & wasted others on mature age has-beens like Chapman, Cooney & Gwilt who won't be there in 3 years, have only one capable forward on the list in Daniher, and are not remotely close to a premiership. When Watson, Goddard, Winderlich, Fletcher, Stanton, Cooney, & Chapman retire they'll be joining Carlton as cellar dwellers (they aren't far off already) and that's without WADA delivering a guilty verdict. That Essendon supporters are beginning to talk about sacking Hird due to his inability to win them games, when they've supported him despite his key role in the biggest disgrace in Australian sporting history really says a lot about the club. Completely individual-focused and results driven, truly an end justifies the means organization which will stop at nothing to achieve success. That they've failed to earn it despite stooping to the lowest possible level is poetic justice.
andyl12
Guest
They haven't even won a final since 2004, let alone a flag. By 2020 it'll be their longest ever drought- both for winning a final and a flag. Unless of course they defy the odds and do it before then. Is there credibility in the theory that clubs like Carlton and Essendon have lived too much off their inheritance and not properly progressed into the 21st century football competition, while clubs like Hawthorn and Geelong have built the right cultures through a willingness to embrace new ideas?
Gecko
Guest
The Bombers are 4-6 without getting much from their older players this year, so I don't see the impending retirements being catastrophic. And of every top 2 draft picks for any club, only one will become a star, so missing out on draft picks for a couple of years will only lose them a couple of stars. That's not catastrophic either. The Bombers will certainly be floundering for the next few years but with decent management and decent recruitment (including mature age recruits), they could stay within reach of the middle rungs and be in a position to re-challenge when Heppell, Daniher etc are in their late twenties.
Bill
Guest
#StandByHird
Paul D
Roar Guru
It’ll be empty as long as Hird is running the show, that I can guarantee. Does not have the skills to match it with the top end AFL coaches.