Which winger will whip the Wallabies into World Cup winners?

By Frank the tank / Roar Rookie

Michael Hooper or David Pocock? We have all heard it, discussed it, and passionately bled into out keyboards debating it. And while it will be a headache for Michael Cheika to decide, the choice of our wingers on the other hand will turn that into a migraine.

It’s not as simple as one or the other, we have been blessed with an abundance of international standard wingers, but who will make the squad and be our World Cup winner?

World Cups are not won by wingers alone, nor would I say they would be the most important component to a winning side, but they do score the most amount of tries and that’s how Cheika wants to win.

The big question, though, is who will be the destructive pair that carries out his plan? The easiest way to find out the most prolific player would be through the stats. I know, I know, I just sent you to sleep with one word but carry on and you might be pleasantly surprised by how interesting it can be.

Personally I believe stats can be misleading and are largely contributed to the side you play in and the game plan implemented, as a result I will only focus on three factors – metres gained, tackling and beast factor.

That’s right, I haven’t taken into account the largest factor in a winger’s role, tries. Reason being is that it is a direct result of the coach’s game plan, a successful team and the players inside the winger. This is also why I am not going to talk about total amount but only percentages, and I have ranked them to make it more palatable and comparable.

Now let’s look at metres run. When a winger touches the ball he needs to make metres, it his job to get the team significantly over the advantage line as they have run the risk of sending the ball out wide.

Run metres
8.5m – Taqele Naiyaravoro
7.1m – Joe Tomane
6.8m – Rob Horne
6.3m – Nick Cummins
5.9m – James O’Connor
5.8m – Henry Speight
4.8m – Adam Ashley-Cooper

What surprised me the most was that Ashley-Cooper and Speight (averaged nine metres in 2014) were at the bottom. I think it’s key to note that Ashley-Cooper has been playing outside centre and his counterpart Tevita Kuridrani only made an average of 3.8 metres

Tackling
87% – Rob Horne
86% – James O’Connor
77% – Henry Speight
81% – Adam Ashley-Cooper
77% – Joe Tomane
76% – Taqele Naiyaravoro
70% – Nick Cummins

No surprise with Horne but I must say James O’Connor certainly has. As for Honey Badger all I can say is c’mon mate, your tackling like a one-armed butcher in Baghdad!

Now for my favourite stat, it’s what I like to call the beast factor. Beast factor is the ability to make something a little bit special happen and to create an opportunity out of nothing. It is comprised the players’ offloads, clean breaks and most importantly players beaten. I have added all of this up and divided it by the amount of runs.

Beast factor
79% – Taqele Naiyaravoro
66% – Joe Tomane
61% – Rob Horne
51% – Henry Speight
47% – James O’Connor
42% – Nick Cummins
34% – Adam Ashley-Cooper

There is no surprises with Naiyaravoro having the most amount of beast factor and as Cheika has stated he is a “profile” we haven’t had in a while and debatably ever.

Now I know that I just gave you guys a lot of stats and lists to digest and possibly made it even harder to decide my original question, who should be the starting wingers to win the World Cup?

To simplify and collate all those numbers I have assigned a points system, for every ranking in each category I have assigned a point value. If you top the list you are allocated seven points all the way to last, which is allocated one point.

Totals
17 – Horne
16 – Naiyaravoro
15 – Tomane
12 – O’Connor
11 – Speight
7 – Cummins
6 – Ashley-Cooper

Overall I don’t think anyone could disagree with Horne being Australia’s most in-form winger of Super Rugby this year and the result reflects that. He would be the starting winger in my Wallaby XV.

As for Naiyaravoro, I think although he is excellent in attack he is still a bit raw and lacking a complete rugby brain, which is evident through his low tackling percentage. That’s why I would have Tomane as the other wing, keeping in mind the stats I have presented do not factor in the quarter-finals where he undoubtedly had the best game of his season.

What about Drew Mitchell? Well, he is the wild card in my deck, I simply do not know enough and have not watched enough of his games, so I am not in a position to make any judgements. The big question for myself is would you have someone like Naiyaravoro on the bench to run at tiring defence or James O’Connor to cover multiple positions and close out a tight game with his class and consistent defence?

All that matters is what Cheika thinks, but before we know the answer to that, I would like to know what everyone here reckons. Who would be your Wallabies World Cup wingers?

The Crowd Says:

2015-06-30T21:51:35+00:00

Gonzo

Guest


McKenzie beat the ABs? This must be an alternate reality.

2015-06-30T07:19:14+00:00

Max

Guest


I think you're being a bit hard on Horne here. I've never seen him as particularly slow. Whilst not a playmaker, he has established himself as the best out and out finisher in Australia. Some of the tries he has scored in the last 2 years are bordering on ludicrous. It was only last year that he scored to beat the Boks by cutting between 3 defenders who looked to have him covered. Combine that with his brutal defense and I wouldn't hesitate to have him in any side that I was selecting.

2015-06-29T10:48:04+00:00

Rolando

Guest


Need starting wingers who can drop back and kick big if needed . Typical scenario: Izzie takes catch near his 22, passes to JOC or Drew Mitchell to kick for territory. Second scenario: Izzie runs and passes to JOC or Drew Mitchell for further metres and/or kicks over the top/ grubbers for the kick and chase. JOC also a good passer. If Izzie injured then either JOC or Drew M to fullback and bring on : Horne if defence is required or Speight/Tomane for penetration if WB's getting good possession. If Mitchell not in the mix due to poor showing in RC etc then AAC as starting winger. Therefore start Mitchell, JOC with bench of Horne + one of Speight/Tomane, provides for all back three postions.

2015-06-29T06:50:01+00:00

Marty

Guest


Bugger the wingers, it'll be a fast and effective loose trio that'll be the vanguard of any victorious team laying claim to the Webb Ellis.

2015-06-29T04:08:21+00:00

Realist

Guest


Wow - how quickly people forget that Horne has done bugger all for the Wallabies despite numerous attempts and it not a top draw finisher

2015-06-29T00:22:04+00:00

Bouch

Guest


I think speed and agility are the fundmental attributes of a good winger as they translate into the ability to finish and score tries. JOC although conspiciously out of form possesses both as does speight. The latter although third in tackling has a strong pressence over the ball which shouldn't be underestimated. Tomane for me is weak under the high-ball lacks strong defence and although shows strength and x-factor at times, is not consistent enough to warrant a starting spot. Most will agree that Horne simply doesn't possess the x-factor or speed of an international winger despite his strong overall performance. He certainly will be in the squad but I couldn't see him being in my 23. Naiyaravoro size doesn't translate to the international domain, his defence is horrible and doesn't possess versatility. I would be leaving at home. Drew if fully conditioned is a massive contender, strong defence, speed and skill is something we know he possesses; I would like to see him with some time in the RC. AAC isn't a winger anymore, his utility status (12, 13, wing and 15) however means he should be on the bench; hopefully at the expense of Beale. Cummins is a very ordinary player, always has been and has only really been in the wallabies set-up due to significant injury. His time has come and gone. Our wingers will need strong footwork and acceleration to get past their heavier opponents whilst the defence skills/speed to take them down. Speight and JOC stand-out in this aspect and should be starting come the RC and RWC.

2015-06-28T17:01:58+00:00

44bottles

Roar Guru


Think you mean the victory over the Springboks Alex ;)

2015-06-28T16:59:29+00:00

44bottles

Roar Guru


I reckon Kerevi could become an outside as he develops further and learns the positional defence. He's already played there a couple of times.

2015-06-28T14:19:56+00:00

frank the tank

Guest


Hang on a second I'm 'frank the tank' here!!! Have been for a few years whats going on ROAR this is identity theft?!

2015-06-28T13:18:51+00:00

Vhavnal

Roar Rookie


The best winger in Ozland for the last 3 years has been by far, Henry Speight...The best way to utilize him is to get him involved ..if Australia start using Henry the same way NZ were using Sitiveni Sivivatu as a link man (playing first receiver during scrums, allowing him to run with speed and break the opposition which is usually 'weak' around the scrums since all the best defenders are in that scrum),,,and also, he is freakishly quick and his ability to beat the first defenders is quite amazing as well...his flaw this season was the lack of ball as well as not getting involved as much, but he has been solid .......my other wing, AAC. I like Horne too but its best to play him off the bench (move AAC to 13 in the last 10, and bring horne to the wing)... Tomane might look like a good option but he gets missing a LOT..just like Taqele did last night..I love the honeybadger too but I can honestly say, he is NO LONGER a international standard player...

2015-06-28T11:34:06+00:00

Boz

Guest


In fairness to James O'Connor, he has also played fullback and flyhalf this season which will have affected his running stats. Specifically with the Reds he started off a number of attacking plays, drawing the defence then passing to the likes of Kerevi to score. He scored no tries himself but five try assists and after some initial jitters kicked goals well. It was pretty solid contribution to a struggling team, which was only marred with a couple of spectacularly stuffed up kicks in open play. Ireckon he is the most naturally talented all rounder of the lot of those players listed, though he is a confidence player and was probably let down by the Red's lousy coach. If Cheika can inspire him into full form I would start him on one wing with Horne on the other.

2015-06-28T11:27:50+00:00

Ian Mackay

Guest


As to Naiyaravoro I think the chances are slim that he will be in the Australian World Cup Squad. He is contracted to Glasgow Warriors who are reportedly going to pay him £175 000 per annum for the next 3 years. And that deal is not dependent on Naiyaravoro being capped by either Fiji or Australia. Looking at it from a Warriors perspective, Naiyaravoro has 3 options: 1. stay uncapped (with a later potential to be capped by Scotland/other nationality on move), 2. cap for Australia under residency now, or 3. cap by Fiji. Option 1 would be the Warriors most favoured option, obviously. It gives the Warriors the most potential for 3 years use of the player with a maximum sell-on value to other clubs. It may also provide the SRU with a later Scotland cap should Naiyaravoro wish it. Option 2 would be the Warriors next option. An Australian cap in the World Cup before moving to Glasgow would then prevent Naiyaravoro playing for Australia until he returns under the 60 cap rule for overseas players. This would make Naiyaravoro available for the Warriors in every one of their matches for the next 3 years (and beyond if the contract is extended). This is a very serious consideration given that the Glasgow Warriors - as Pro12 champions and one of only 2 professional Scottish clubs - regularly lose about 30 players per season to international duty. This seriously hampers their challenge in the Pro12 league and in European Champions Cup competitions. An international class player overlooked for 3 years or more on the Warriors books is priceless. Option 3 the Fiji cap is probably the least favoured option. Glasgow already has Fijian internationalists at the club and they are regularly called up to the squad. From a club perspective losing these players throughout the year does hamper their challenge; and it is clear that playing for the Pro12 champions is not a hindrance to any Fijian caps. Of course Naiyaravoro has a nuclear option. To play for Australia under residency then get his agent to try and squirm out of his Glasgow contract to remain in Australia. This certainly would give him the best chance of further Australian caps. However it does not give him the best chance of serious money. Rugby is a short career and Naiyaravoro's battering ram style might make his career even shorter. Which option Naiyaravoro picks is entirely up to him of course. As a Warriors fan I hope he honours his contract and picks one of the first 3 options and we see him in a Warriors jersey! :)

2015-06-28T11:08:53+00:00

Bfc

Guest


Ditto...

2015-06-28T10:23:35+00:00

Corporal punishment

Guest


What victory against the all blacks???

2015-06-28T09:46:45+00:00

Rugger

Guest


If Rob Horne is best we have in wingers good luck. With speed to burn Savea must be trembling in his boots.

2015-06-28T08:12:59+00:00

Alex Wood

Roar Guru


Rob Horne is the best winger in Australia at the moment, but his style tends to leave him to be second choice behind the more flashy options like Speight and Tomane. I still can't figure out how McKenzie dropped him last year after he put over the match winning try in our one victory over the All Blacks. The second wing is a more tricky question - on form Tomane gets the nod. Not sure that's ideal to be honest but he's been playing well and deserves a shot at least.

2015-06-28T07:32:10+00:00

Who?

Guest


Selector's the only person on here who's identified the biggest failing with almost all of our listed wing options, and the named combinations. And it's exacerbated by the coaching received by our 15 Goal kicking from the 65th minute isn't a guaranteed thing (then again, with our S15 options - including Foley - kicking pretty poorly all year, you could argue that it's not a gimme at any point!), but it's not the biggest factor for our wingers. Who kicks for touch? Who clears? Sometimes, you just have to get it on the hoof, especially in the NH! Folau's got a better boot than many credit, but he's played AFL, and they taught him to kick to the man. He does that very well - we need him to kick to the space! But Horne's not a renowned kicker. Neither is Speight, or Naiyaravoro. Or Tomane. The only people known to be able to kick in the article above are JOC and AAC. People forget AAC can kick, they also forget he played 15 pretty successfully for the Wallabies for a few years after Latho retired. So he's an option, but it's pretty clear he's not the most favoured option. Similarly, JOC played 15 after AAC, and this year for the Reds. But he's out of form, in a rut where he's clearly trying hard, but things just aren't coming off. So who should the wingers be..? I think that Frank's comments about the players inside are extremely relevant here. If Beale is anywhere near the squad, our wingers will likely need to be able to tackle. Especially if Foley (and possibly Cooper) drops back to 15 to cover kicks and counter attack. My preference is to follow the Kiwi model of a big ball runner and a second 15, especially with Folau a lock at 15 (he could move to the wing, but honestly, who thinks Cheik's going to pick someone else at 15? IF he did, who would it be? I can't pick anyone who's bashing down the door). It may be that the wildcard Drew Mitchell's kicking ability is the key to his selection, especially being left footed, and he would partner Speight very nicely. I think an in-form JOC (if we can get him in form!) would be very useful on the bench - more useful than Beale, covering 11, 12, 14 and 15. For those who think I'm crazy, if Beale can play 12, then why can't the equally slippery but better defending JOC play 12..? I think JOC and Hooper are our best could've-been-12's... Both remind me of Horan with their build and footwork.

2015-06-28T06:42:08+00:00

Karl Knuth

Roar Pro


+1 Mike. We are starting to develop more depth in all positions imo. All the front rowers are starting to come good. Second row is improving with Arnold and Coleman on the rise. Back row is in top shape, and we have Stirzacker, Frisby and Louwrens at 9 coming through. 5/8 is well covered with LLF, Foley and Cooper. At inside we have Toomua, Gits, Kerevi and also Inman. Outside is a bit more of a concern moving forward as we only have AAC and Kurindrani, so hopefully we’ll see someone good emerge from the Nrc. Wingers and FB are well covered imo. A lot of it is going to depend on how Cheika can mould them into team. The ingredients are there, its just got to be put together.

2015-06-28T06:04:32+00:00

Karl Knuth

Roar Pro


+1 Mike. We are starting to develop more depth in all positions imo. All the front rowers are starting to come good. Second row is improving with Arnold and Coleman on the rise. Back row is in top shape, and we have Stirzacker, Frisby and Louwrens at 9 coming through. 5/8 is well covered with LLF, Foley and Cooper. At inside we have Toomua, Gits, Kerevi and also Inman. Outside is a bit more of a concern moving forward as we only have AAC and Kurindrani, so hopefully we'll see someone good emerge from the Nrc. Wingers and FB are well covered imo. A lot of it is going to depend on how Cheika can mould them into team. The ingredients are there, its just got to be put together.

AUTHOR

2015-06-28T06:03:50+00:00

Frank the tank

Roar Rookie


Quade or foley, which ever player is on the field.

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