If the Wallabies are to stand a chance at this World Cup, risks need to be taken. Whether we like it or not, the inclusion of Matt Giteau and the consideration of Kane Douglas changes a lot.
Much has been written about the long-term effects of selecting overseas based players. Predictably and understandably, an outcry has followed the suggestion that Kane Douglas is being considered for the 2015 campaign.
Yet Michael Cheika is too savvy to have left the door ajar for Douglas unless he was confident a deal could be done with Leinster. Perhaps one that involves the Reds using the sizeable financial relief from James Horwill’s departure to pay out the Irish province.
Dave McDuling has also left Queensland and it is inconceivable that concrete plans do not already exist to replenish locking stocks at Ballymore.
Should Douglas find a way home from Dublin in good health and sign with the Reds, he must be picked for Australia. He has the physicality of Sitaleki Timani but with work ethic. The presence of Will Skelton but with nous. The go forward of a youthful Horwill.
Can Kane Douglas do it on a cold, wet English day in October? Yes, he can.
No doubt Giteau was among the first called by Cheika once the ARU’s policy was changed. Sure he hasn’t played Tests since the disaster against Samoa in 2011. But that was a player out of position, down on confidence and on a collision course with his coach.
Anyone who has watched him support Jonny Wilkinson and then lesser fly-halves at Toulon can see he is up to it and predict what Cheika has in mind. A steady hand at crunch time.
So why the focus on these players?
It is the same reason that Benn Robinson and Ben Alexander have been ruthlessly cast aside for Greg Holmes and Scott Sio.
Alexander has been penalised off the park virtually since debut. Holmes anchored a pack which stole the second most tight heads in Super Rugby. We all know what the definition of insanity is and with 20 minutes to go against the English at Twickenham, Holmes would be my choice too.
Cheika knows that without hard-nosed set pieces, a pack capable of playing in tight and tactical smarts the Wallabies won’t get out of their pool.
If October proves to be a particularly wet month in London the odds of Australia bringing home Bill will lengthen dramatically regardless.
Sure there was 1991 and 1999. There was also John Eales in place of Rob Simmons. Tim Horan instead of Matt Toomua. Not to mention the best Wallaby front rows we have seen.
So in 2015, Cheika must take risks. Albeit calculated ones. Starting with Douglas, including Giteau, adding Holmes and excluding at least one of Dean Mumm and Dave Dennis too.
There will certainly be a ‘horses for courses’ debate on selections. However, barring injuries and extreme losses of form during the Rugby Championship my matchday 23 against England on October 3 (and potentially South Africa on October 17) would be:
1. James Slipper (Sio at 70 minutes)
2. Stephen Moore (Tatafu Polota-Nau at 70)
3. Sekope Kepu (Holmes at 60)
4. Douglas (Skelton at 55)
5. Rob Simmons
6. Scott Fardy (Michael Hooper at 55)
7. David Pocock
8. Wycliff Palu (Ben McCalman at 55)
9. Will Genia (Nick Phipps at 70 minutes)
10. Quade Cooper
12. Matt Toomua (Giteau at 60)
13. Tevita Kuridrani
11. Henry Speight (Rob Horne at 70)
14. Adam Ashley-Cooper
15. Israel Folau
16. Polata-Nau
17. Sio
18. Holmes
19. Skelton
20. Hooper
21. McCalman
22. Phipps
23. Horne
Straight off the bat there needs to be a 6-2 forwards and backs split. Risky but it should be maintained even for games against the likes of Wales and New Zealand (if Australia gets that far). There is plenty of versatility with Toomua, Giteau, Ashley-Cooper and Horne to cover all eventualities.
The front row excites me more than any Wallaby front row since 1999. Moore is the glue that was needed last year at set piece. It is a front row with more than 200 Tests between it. Holmes has also played 130-odd games at Super Rugby level. I don’t feel sick to the stomach at the thought of him coming on.
Simmons is a brilliant lineout technician but whoever plays next to him needs go forward and mongrel. Douglas has both in spades and if fit and in form after the Rugby Championship he is my starter. I still believe that Skelton lacks maturity and smarts but the thought of him entering the fray with 25 minutes to go is irresistible.
Predictably the back row was the most difficult selection. Against England (or South Africa), Fardy, Pocock and Palu provide the best balance at least to begin the game. Moore, Slipper, Douglas and Palu are all ball carriers and Fardy’s ‘dark arts’ will be needed at the breakdown. He was certainly missed in 2014.
Higginbotham may get game time at six particularly against Wales, but when it comes to rolling the sleeves up and discipline he is saddled with past transgressions and perceptions. Hooper entering the fray with Skelton adds a real injection of running and linking, particularly through the midfield and it may just catch tired English legs out.
Palu has been picked on potential. It was very surprising Ita Vaea was not selected in the 40-man squad and that likely leaves Palu as the man we need to fire. If he struggles and Vaea remains omitted, then a time may come where Higgers needs to be picked at eight. In any case, whoever replaces Palu, if he starts, must provide a second lineout option if Skelton and Hooper are both brought on.
The combination of Genia and Cooper needs time in the Championship but may just be on the verge of flourishing again. With a good coach, a run of Test matches and a strong pack in front of them these guys will worry any side. The English, Boks and Kiwis just don’t see the fuss about Foley and neither do I. He’s solid but he won’t win a World Cup. Phipps has all the hallmarks of a nine coming on with 10 to go to tackle, tackle and tackle.
Toomua with all his physicality is the perfect foil to start a game with Cooper. Giteau together with the game management he brings is the perfect man to end the game with him. I am sure that Cheika has identified the potential of finishing a game with Genia, Cooper and Giteau at 9, 10 and 12. Whether he is prepared to demote Foley from a starting position is a different matter.
The prospect of Kuridrani running at 13 with Cooper, Giteau, Speight and Folau is exciting. Even more exciting is the same players being joined by Skelton and Hooper with 25 minutes to play. No midfield in world rugby will relish the prospect of defending that combination of ball runners and off-loaders.
There are plenty of risks in this selection. Just as there are risks for Australian Rugby in encouraging the likes of Giteau and now Douglas home for the Wallabies.
Yet the risks of not being bold far outweigh those of taking action. Hopefully Cheika has that figured out.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Toomua did have a good eoyt, poor rc though. Most rated Kuridrani the best on tour and McCalman 2nd, Toomua was probably the 3rd best though on tour. He certainly was not considered the best during the rc that year. John Eales medal he did not come in the first 5.
Realist
Guest
Toomua was our best player on the EOYT last year. You need to watch some rugby. We got dusted in the forwards.
Selector
Guest
Hey mate I liked the article and agree that we need to think differently if we stand any chance in this competition. Australian rugby in the past has been renowned for playing above its weight due to our tactical nous. In relation to Arnold and Coleman, the RC would have been the perfect chance to test them out in preparation for the WC.. Not taking Horwill, when we know exactly what we will get. If Arnold or Coleman don't stand up, by all means bring Horwil in. I also don't want to see too much energy or money going into Douglas. He was in solid form before departing Australia, but by all accounts he is not setting the world on fire (i know he has suffered from injury). Also, I want to know if Kimlin was considered in this approach as well. He was in form before leaving and is doing well in France. Firewolf is spot on with the Form locks. Although I think Simmons still earns his place in the squad
Jack43
Guest
Your use of the bench makes no sense. you've made 9 substitution's 6 forwards and 3 backs, but their are only 8 spots on the bench with a 6-2 split, with giteau not even named. how do propose cheika achieves this? It would certainly be risky.
Lroy
Guest
We are no chance if Toomua plays... the attack dies with him too often. He has had plenty of chances at test level and who have we beaten with him in the side? Its a wonder to me that hes even in the squad. They will have to gamble with a new combination, Folua-Kuriandrani would be my choice... We have plenty of blokes who can play full back, for mine Id consider Mike Harris...solid... and we will need his kicking skills.
William Tell
Guest
What! The 10 drops back in defence!! Are you crazy - that is the tactic that saw Quade Cooper blasted by expert after expert on The Roar - and Ewen McKenzie denigrated as a know-nothing coach. Amazing how the flip-flops come out after they get their pet up.
William Tell
Guest
Cheika doesn't need to take risks - he just needs to take a lesson from a real coach, like Mal Meninga or the Bronco's Wayne Bennett - no histrionics, no bellowing, but real leadership, tactical smarts, focus and an understaning of how team building gets done.
maxxlord
Roar Rookie
Once you leave out Higginbotham your team becomes a joke. Nice try though.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks for your thoughts wre. I have no hope for a WB RWC win this year, though I wish we will win bring back Webb Ellis. The WBs can indeed go for a Hail Mary and try something bold to surprise everyone. Or use this year as part of a five year rebuild, whilst also putting the best foot forward. In any case, I struggle to see how KD and Dean Mumm is a bold move, that will turn the fortune of the WBs. imo NH Locks are not the key winners for WBs in NH, its the props, scrummaging flankers and kickers.
Jimbo
Guest
This was a good article. One thing Australia have to realize is Cooper is not a starting first five, in fact he never has been. He should be an impact player coming on to spark some moves when the other team are exhausted. No matter how we look at it the Aussie's are a little thin. A few injuries and they could be in trouble. Nevertheless, never, ever, discount them in a RWC; indeed, never discount anyone. A wallabies team with something to prove is a dangerous creature.
PeterK
Roar Guru
fair enough. However I see little risk in that everyone has played tests, most have a losing record. Risk in playing Douglas who never performed at test level and has been injured a lot this year. All of them are tried combinations , there is no real risk. If you had new blood like Arnold or Kerevi or risk in playing Giteau or Mitchell.
wre01
Roar Guru
PS I hold my hands up for a stuff up regarding my bench. The question I was deliberating and forgot to resolve was whether to risk having Giteau as an extra 9 or omit Horne. I think omitting Horne is the way to go.
wre01
Roar Guru
Fire wolf I see where you are coming from. As I said in my piece, I am uneasy about Skeltons maturity. He does stupid things at key points and for that reason I wouldn't start him. That said, even with his lack of smarts, I recognise he has the ability to impact a game and should come off the bench. As far as Arnold and Coleman go, you have to remember there is a high probability of the Wallabies playing England, Wales and South Africa in successive weeks. All of those sides are loaded with internationally renowned and experienced locks. Wynn-Jones, Parling, Lawes, Etzebeth, Matfield etc. Is RWC 2015 really the time to test whether these guys are up to it? It is a year too early for them in my opinion. Also Luke Jones is too small for an international lock. Especially in the NH at a world cup where set pieces and playing in the tight will win games.
wre01
Roar Guru
PeterK I actually think that Cheika may well go with Hooper at 7, Phipps and Foley at 9/10 and perhaps even find a way to get Beale on the filed at either wing or 12. So I don't think the side above is in any way 'predictable'. Asking Cooper to start at 10 will involve him defending in the front line which is also something no coach has asked him to do before- even McKenzie and Deans found a way to shift him to the blindside wing whenever possible.
Dead Account
Roar Pro
Skelton? Arnold? Jones, Coleman are in form but not in the squad.
Who?
Guest
There's a risk there - in fact, two risks. The first is that we're playing a 6-2 forwards-backs split on the bench, then we're subbing on three backs. So, we're risking forfeiting games for using an extra player! The other risk is that we're effectively giving up on winning any lineout ball from 55 minutes. Hooper and Skelton enter the field for Douglas and Fardy. That's a lot of lineout power lost in one hit!
PeterK
Roar Guru
AAC played fullback for both the wallabies and brumbies, he has a reasonable boot. Disagree both wingers have to have a good boot, 1 does. The 10 drops back in defence to help the f/b and he has to have a good boot. Another reason Foley should not be chosen.
Benno
Guest
If Folau is to play fullback both wingers must possess a solid kicking game if the wallabies are any chance of winning any games this year. The best options therefore are Drew Mitchell and James O'Connor when he returns from injury. Speight, Tomanne, Cummins, Horne and the big Waratahs winger are all good finishers but lack the kicking game required. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Mantis
Roar Guru
Do we have an in form second rower?
Smiggle Jiggle
Roar Guru
that team sure strikes fear for the teams we will face this year ;)