One of the two protagonists entered the first Ashes Test as justifiable favourites.
They had comfortably won the previous series between the sides, their line-up was settled, a bowling attack that was more established, they possessed a nicely balanced top order, their warm-up form had been good and everything pointed to the continuation of their decent run of results.
That was England in Brisbane, November 2013. But for then read Australia in Cardiff, July 2015.
A 5-0 win last time out, a shorter price with every bookmaker, a team that more or less could pick itself, a dynamic seam attack, the premier spinner, a strong top six and two convincing wins over the counties.
There was a strong sense that if everything played out as expected then the trip down the M4 to Lord’s would be made with a 1-0 series lead in the bag.
That the above isn’t the case can be out down to two surprises: England playing so well and Australia playing so poorly.
The majority, well those who looked beyond the hyperbole, predicted a closely-fought five Tests, and that isn’t going to change over the next few weeks, but not a single preview entertained the possibility of a home win of such a convincing manner.
How will England take 20 wickets and can they withstand the opposing pace attack given their previous experiences were the two main obstacles being placed in front of Alastair Cook and his XI in their bid to regain the urn.
Fair enough really with two of the seam quartet – Ben Stokes and Mark Wood – relatively inexperienced and the batting rarely subjected to the kind of speeds generated by Mitchell Johnson and his left-arm partner in crime.
But while previous occurrences can provide a useful guide, a definitive answer is more difficult to come by. That was 18 months ago and with alterations in personnel and a fresh opponent without four drubbings behind them, the consensus wasn’t a given.
Despite all of this, Australia will have been well within their rights to expect better but, and not for the first time, the 22 yards of turf got the better of them.
Had this game, with all other factors constant, been played at the Gabba or Waca, I wouldn’t have given England a cat in hell’s chance of coming out on top.
Yet think back to Trent Bridge and Lord’s in 2013, the four Tests in India prior to that, Port Elizabeth in 2014 and the UAE later that year and spot the trend. Take the pace away – I made this point after the second Test in South Africa a year or so ago – and Australia are a far tamer animal.
The events in Cardiff bear this out. Johnson, without the threat of causing physical harm, isn’t anywhere near as penetrative and the top order don’t seem to want to book in for the long haul.
Test cricket has moved on in pace but that doesn’t mean you have to sit in the fast lane for the duration. Show some respect for what’s in front of you and reap the rewards, fail to do so and get bitten on the backside.
This isn’t down to complacency or taking England lightly as some have suggested, it’s simply a mindset that needs to be altered a touch.
England, like it or not, have just shown the way to go about it on slower surfaces. Attack with the bat in a more selective manner and stick to a plan with the ball.
The way the hosts bowled to each individual – slightly wide of off-stump to Steve Smith, straight to Adam Voges and Shane Watson, across David Warner – showed that homework had been done and, more importantly, was then adhered to. Australia were unable to maintain any pressure for any length of time and the difference was all too apparent.
All of that being said, the talk of crisis in the camp is a bit premature. Manchester United lose three on the bounce and they’re in a mess – they aren’t – and the same is true in this case.
One defeat won’t, or shouldn’t, result in the walls coming tumbling down and a side, after a hearty wake-up call, with renewed vigour should be expected in north London.
Dave
Guest
Perth has slowed over the past decade. Brisbane I feel is the old WACA now. So can you at least ensure Lords is a little livier now!!! hehehe
G
Guest
A nods as good as a wink to a blind bat
Darren
Guest
The only issue I have with the `patience' theory is that England was for more aggressive batting than Australia. They rode their luck to an extent and it worked. They also bowled much better than Australia. If, big if, Australia can have more patience bowling then I'd say the English batting will unravel.
Andy
Guest
Another issue is that all all test grounds have had to to improve drainage systems ( whilst ironically coinciding with dryer summers) meaning that all the grounds are a bit dryer. Cardiff is always slow and a seamers track. Lords has been a bit greener in recent years but sadly the days of the Oval as the quickest ground in England seem to be over, Tell you what though, you turn Perth in to a slower green top and we will make sure Lords is a fast bouncy track!
Dave
Guest
CT, think you'll find Copeland has a contract for the 2015/16 season with Cricket NSW. Hope he makes it a good one!
CT
Guest
Clarke may say we have the will to win.If we do not change the game plan that worked so horribly at Cardiff all the will in the world will make little difference.
James
Guest
my problem with complaining about pitches is that both teams play on the same pitch and both teams know what the pitch will be like because surely you cant just change the pitch the day or week before a game right? it takes time i would imagine.
CT
Guest
Wish we had Trent Copeland on this tour. Is a rare breed in Australian cricket. Bowls no more than130 kph but can land the ball on a 20c piece. If there is anything in the deck he will find it. Would be ideal on these slow seaming English decks.The Blues have now dispensed with his services in favor of more attacking blokes. Pity really.
CT
Guest
Strange they used the wider ball to defeat Smith. During his incredible run since South Africa he has had nothing to do with balls outside the off stump. He said himself that the main thing with his batting turnaround is his patience at not playing balls he does not have to play. Had a brain snap in Cardiff. I guess a moving ball does that to even the best.
Mitcher
Guest
I know where you're coming from Will. But I'm less frustrated these plans are working against our batsmen (a good, well executed, simple plan should so as much). I'm more concerned with the inability of our own bowlers at Cardiff to put together anything approaching a consistent plan. As many have mentioned, the loss of harris will be tough to overcome. I was always jittery about an attack with both Mitchells and unfortunately the negative scenario played out. It wil all depend how the whole attack bounces back - I pray with a healthy dose of consistent lines to go with the pace.
Dave
Guest
Send a copy to Rod Marsh??
James
Guest
i read an article the other day talking up the merits of an 'assist' for wickets, not seriously saying that there should be, but pointing out that so many of the fancy strike bowlers get their 5 fors because of the guy who bowled from the other end and got no wickets but went for 2 an over all day. it was a nice little thing to read.
James
Guest
i bet she does. i bet she does. i bet she does. know what I mean? nudge nudge.
boxingkoala
Roar Rookie
I have no issues with the Cardiff pitch, but these are my thoughts. Last Ashes tour we did not see pitches typical of the venues. In Australia, generally touring sides know what they will get at each venue. The Gabba is often fast and bouncy with some grass on the first day. The WACA has generally been quick (tho is not what it once was) Adelaide is a haven for runs but spin can play a part late on etc etc. I rarely see pitches changing to suit the Australian side. Each ground curator tries to prepare the pitch to their standard. Last Ashes tour in England, the pitches seemed to not be as they have been for the past 30 years. Often even slower and suiting spin. If these pitches had of been prepared when Warnie was in the side...... Maybe drier summers in the UK (if that is true - only read this a few times) are the reason for the changed conditions for the past two tours, or maybe the ECB are asking curators to prepare certain style pitches. Not sure but really in the end I don't care. If we are good enough we should win over 5 days. We were not in the Cardiff test so hats off to the Poms (said with gritted teeth). I really hope the Aussies take stock and come again at Lords to play the way they can. Bring on Thursday evening I say.
Disco
Guest
Well said.
Dave
Guest
Yes it is a crime, just ask Trent Copeland! Dropped after doing exactly what Australia need now, and needed then in 2011 ie: bowling consistent line and length and tying an end down. That's why he was selected for Australia but nobody understood his value. Copeland also proved to be highly successful on UK wickets being a leading bowler for Northants during his stint with them. His massive contributions lead to Northants getting promoted to Div 1. Pressure creates wickets, pretty simple really. While our Aust attack is awesomely fast, pressure is not something they are great at building on UK pitches. But hey, don't bowl 140+ k's you can't succeed at Test level...apparently! Sadly nothing will change this view it seems. Australia pays the price for letting England score way too many runs.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
"The way the hosts bowled to each individual – slightly wide of off-stump to Steve Smith, straight to Adam Voges and Shane Watson, across David Warner – showed that homework had been done and, more importantly, was then adhered to." You suspect the England bowlers simply dusted off the bowling plans from 2013 and 2009. It's frustrating, as an Aussie, that these same plans are still so effective. Frustrating, but not surprising.
Frederick the Englishman
Guest
Not a crime to slow it down? So my wife frequently tells me.