What we all witnessed on Saturday night at ANZ Stadium simply rubber-stamped what we saw in Tasmania the week before.
While some wanted to put it down to an aberration as the Hawks blasted the Dockers, surely it would now be a bit too coincidental to consider back-to-back aberrations against two of the AFL’s premiership heavyweights.
The fact is that Hawthorn is currently head and shoulders – and perhaps even chest and stomach – above all other teams in the competition.
A few weeks ago the Dockers and Swans were really being spoken about as potential grand finalists – against one another.
But the freight train that the Hawks have become is stopping for nobody. Right now, the Dockers and Swans may still be grand final candidates, but they would only be in the supporting cast on grand final day.
At times on Saturday it was like watching men against boys. It reminded me of watching the GWS Giants in their infancy playing against the good teams.
The Hawks were often toying with the Swans just as teams would do against the young Giants, but Hawthorn on Saturday made some very good players look well below par.
That the Hawks are now even money to win the flag this far out from finals, shows their dominance.
Some may now say the only potential obstacle is the West Coast Eagles. The two teams will meet in Perth in Round 19, but on what I’ve seen in the past two weeks, it could possibly be another one-sided contest.
I know grand finals aren’t played in July, and that injuries would be a huge leveller. I know that some teams have gone off come September, and that other sides have dominated during the regular season but lost form in the finals.
However, if they stay fit and healthy, it would take a massive improvement from any of their main rivals to be able to match it with the Hawks on the first Saturday in October.
But where does this leave the Swans apart from being seriously concussed?
Nobody wearing red and white at ANZ Stadium could believe what they were seeing.
These demolitions didn’t happen this century. These sized losses were back when the Swans were the laughing stock of the city – and the AFL.
23.8 (146) to 7.15 (57). That’s 89 points. Forget about it being the worst loss in John Longmire’s coaching career, it’s the worst loss this century for the club.
Looking back, the Swans’ worst losses throughout the 2000s have been: 2014 – 63 points to Hawthorn in the grand final, 2013 – 54 points to Hawthorn in the qualifying final, 2012 – 34 points to Geelong, 2011 – 46 points to Hawthorn yet again, 2010 – 73 points to Melbourne, and 2009 – 61 points to Carlton.
Back in 2008 the worst loss was 45 against Collingwood, 2007 – 38 points again to Collingwood, 2006 – 39 to Adelaide, in their 2005 premiership season, their worst loss was 39 points to fellow grand finalists West Coast.
In 2004 – 72 points to Port Adelaide, 2003 – 44-point loss to Brisbane, 2002 – 69 to the Western Bulldogs, 2001 – 55 points in the opening week of the finals, again to Hawthorn, and in 2000 it was a 58-point loss to the Dogs again.
In 1999 the Hawks belted them by 85, and finally in 1998 we find a worse loss than Saturday’s, when in Round 10 they were beaten 24.10 (154) to 8.5 (53) by the Saints at the SCG.
But let’s not stop there. It was the biggest score kicked against them since Round 9, 2002 when the Bulldogs kicked 24.15 159.
The Swans have not been accustomed to conceding so many points. In fact Saturday night was the first time this season they have conceded 100 points or more.
In the previous five seasons they have been miserly too, although there is a bit of a constant.
In 2010 it happened five times: Melbourne 142, Geelong 126 and 125, Fremantle 100, and the Bulldogs 101.
In 2011, four times: Hawthorn (106 and 122 in a semi-final), Carlton 100, and Essendon 100.
In 2012 three times: St Kilda 111, Geelong 112 and Hawthorn 102.
In 2013 it took place five times: Geelong 124, Collingwood 100, and against Hawthorn three times (119, 112 and 105 in the finals).
Last year, just twice and guess who both times? Hawthorn 104 in Round 18 and 137 in the grand final.
And, in all 20 of those games where their opposition has kicked 100+, the Swans have lost.
As for their clashes with the Hawks, well Hawthorn have kicked over 100 against the Swans in nine of the past 13 matches, and won all nine. The Swans have won the other four.
Already there are screams that the Swans defence is now too old, and too slow, with mainstays Heath Grundy and Ted Richards 29 and 32 respectively.
Sorry but I can’t buy it. Prior to that thumping on Saturday this year’s Swans were the best defensively for almost 90 years, surrendering just 67.6 points per game.
Even with the thrashing, they now still only average 72.9 points against per game.
Even though this club used to regularly squeeze the life out of other teams, there has only been one time since they arrived in Sydney when they were better defensively – and that was last season when they conceded 70.4 points per game.
Did they have an off night? Possibly, but the Hawks are just being bullies now and not allowing team to play to their potential.
I still believe the Swans are among the best teams in the competition, but sadly for their fans, and fans of other teams, it’s evident they are all playing for second at the moment.
Justin R
Guest
It's become something of a tradition to anoint a July Premier, and we have another this year. Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that the Hawks fell over the line against Collingwood after the 'Pies botched their goalkicking completely in the 3rd quarter? Hawthorn are entitled to be favourites but the Eagles represent the biggest danger IMO. Possible revenge for '91?
Don Freo
Guest
Only need 6.
Jacques of Lilydale
Guest
Freo can't kick enough goals to beat Hawthorn.
Macca
Guest
Don - Strange that you are back on a comment from 3 days ago, after you have already responded to the discussion that spawned from it and ignoring the most recent response to your post but you did meet your usual standards in the poor quality of the content of the post. Given I used the words "could", "unlikely" and "in the realms of possibility" clearly I wasn't making a statement of fact but offering a possible explanation for Freo's poor form in recent weeks as it has been something that has happened with other teams that find themselves games clear mid season (Geelong for 1). You really need to brush up on your comprehension skills if it took you 3 days to figure out that I was "guessing" (and if you thought you had uncovered a scoop by figuring it out) when it was clear to anyone who had graduated from primary school I was talking in "possibilities" not "fact".
Don Freo
Guest
What do you know about Freo's training load Macca? Sounds like a guess to me.
dave
Guest
one of the smartest comments I've heard for a long time.
Macca
Guest
Don - You tipped Freo & West Coast to be top 2 at the end of the season - the season hasn't finished yet and neither side is a certainty to finish top 2 just yet, when they do I'll give you the credit then but given just 3 weeks ago you were congratulating yourself that you tipped North to finish top 4 correctly (as they were the most likely according to you at that stage) and also for correctly tipping Hawthorn & Sydney to be the big sliders you probably should wait until you are right before patting yourself on the back. As for my predictions I have made them but you are too self involved to notice - for example my top 4 was Port, Hawthorn Sydney & Freo, I predicted North would slide on the back of pre-season injuries and a tougher draw, I predicted Brisbane & Essendon would struggle this year because they didn't have anyone to kick goals an more recently I predicted you were bonkers to say that North were most likely to finish top 4. My record at accurate predictions is much stronger than yours. And it is just you I am lightening quick on Don - in the remote hope that it might teach you some humility.
Don Freo
Guest
You continue to be an unusual unit. Freo an WC are top 2...as I predicted before the season began...and you seem to be suggesting that is not correct. You are always lighning quick to tell someone when a tip they have made is not on the money but make no predictions yourself. Good contibution! I'd say my top 2 pre-season prediction was wonderful. You can tell me it's not but you can get thrapy for denial.
Macca
Guest
Don -"Freo and WC won’t drop enough games for Hawks to get over them." Considering just 3 weeks ago you had Hawthorn missing the top 4 in favour of North I'm not sure you are a great judge. West Coast play all 3 other top 4 sides plus Adelaide away and what could be a tricky game away against the Suns - if they manage to stay 1 game above the Hawks they will definitely have earned it.
Macca
Guest
"But teams never play like they did in previous weeks" Hawthorn belting Freo but 12 goals and Sydney by 15 in consecutive weeks (plus the fact Hawthorn is unbeaten in 7 games) makes this statement dubious. "Win/loss is far more accurate as a predictor" Given the sheer volume of your predictions that have been way off the mark so far this season Don I don't think you are in any position to say what is a far more accurate predictor but if we look at the Sydney Hawthorn game win/loss would have predicted a Sydney win (given Sydney had won more games) but looking at previous week would have predicted a Hawthorn win. A teams most recent form (not just the week before) is much more accurate than win/loss as a team who won a lot of games early could have lost their form who suffered serious injuries in recent weeks but win/loss would still be predicting victories.
Don Freo
Guest
But teams never play like they did in previous weeks. Hawks are not playing like they did against Essendon or GWS. The previous week is not always...or even regularly...a reliable reference point. Margins are affected by so many variables. Win/loss is far more accurate as a predictor.
New York Hawk
Guest
"delusional Don" once more! Yep, you have us covered. No worries mate, all good. You can't kick 100 against the Lions yet you are good enough to beat the Hawks? Can we still quote "The Castle"? If so, tell him he's dreaming....
Penster
Guest
This time last year it was said that Sydney had the flag won, just a matter of showing up on the day to collect it!
jax
Guest
How much should the Lions pay him and how many years should they give him? Do you think coming home will make a difference?
jax
Guest
Freo will improve and begin peaking for finals and a Top 2 finish I am sure of it. They are going to be a mighty hard team to beat from now on in. On current form everyone else is playing for 2nd I'm afraid. Hawks would have to not turn up in a prelim or GF for that happen. It's looking very much like a 3 peat ATM.
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
If they do get within 6 goals it'll be a victory of sorts. Not over Hawthorn obviously, but at least over the rest of the recent thrashed brigade. For what that's worth.
jax
Guest
They might belt us 13th I can't be sure but I don't think it will be by as much as they beat Freo and Swans. Ask me a few days before the game. It's too hard to predict this far out. If any team can pick WC apart it's the Hawks. Clarko would know what they are doing better than anyone outside of WC.
jax
Guest
Macca Look at the ladder and if you saw On the Couch tonight they thought it was important enough to present the % ladder and WC sits 2nd behind Hawthorn. They said that they were presenting it because historically the % ladder is a very good indicator in determining the best sides. Let's break it down... Freo are renowned for their defence. Well WC have conceded 39 more points than Freo this season, or just 2.6 points per game. WC has kicked a whopping 620 more points than Freo or 41.3 points per game, yes 7 more goals per game. So we match them defensively and absolutely smash them offensively. The bookies and punters seem to think WC are pretty goods also. They are rightfully on the 4th line of betting to win the flag behind the other 3 and I agree with that. Look at gap to 5th. Add up all of the above and some of the other points that I've raised previously and WC arent that far away. Hawks – $2.30 Freo – $5 Sydney – $5.50 Eagles – $6.50 Tigers – $17 I hope they kick straight as well.
jax
Guest
Well said Lanse
Lance
Guest
Michael, you've obviously written a fair bit about AFL to be given the 'expert' tag so I'm respectful of the article you've written. What I find interesting though is that Hawthorn and Sydney are one-all in their meetings this year. You get the same four points if you win by 10 points than if you win by 79 or whatever it was. Right now both teams are on the same number of wins and Hawthorn are only ahead on percentages. It wasn't that long ago that Hawthorn were significantly off the pace, and Freo were the stand out 'premiership favorites'...there's sure to be more ebbs and flows as the season unfolds. So to all the 'Monday's experts' out there who are righting off everyone else, and think Hawthorn is a 'shoe-in' for the premiership, I think you need to be a little more circumspect in your predictions...because that's all they are, predictions. Hawthorn is beatable, they've been beaten four times already this season, and while their best is spectacular to watch, there's a long long way to go.