Heads you win the Ashes, tails you lose

“Luck is what happens to you when fate gets tired of waiting,” is one of the many pithy phrases in Gregory David Roberts’ Shantaram.

Who knows what it was. Certainly, a series defining victory for England seemed preordained; momentum and popular opinion were strongly with the Three Lions, roaring after mauling an insipid Australia in Cardiff.

Roberts may well be right; it could have been as simple as fate departing St Johns Wood tube in a huff, a scorned date off to drown her sorrows. It could have been the balmy weather, the Lord’s murmur, the pop of a champagne bottle.

Or simply getting out of bed to the left rather than the right. Whatever it was, Michael Clarke will thank his lucky stars.

‘Heads’ was the call. Clarke, an obstinate tails man, in an instant decided to go against many moons of calling tails. He still doesn’t know why. History can be defined by such impulse. Heads it was, and a glorious toss to win.

The pitch looked flatter than the Nullabor, the outfield lightning fast. “We’ll have a bat,” said Clarke, more quickly than a Shane Watson review. Some little time later, David Warner and Steve Smith strode through the hallowed MCC Members Pavilion and onto the venerated, parquet turf.

Less than four days’ play later, this Australia, so often called good, not great, would be owners of one of the most comprehensive victories in Test history. 405 runs to the good, having twice declared for the loss of just 10 wickets. The neutering of England was all the more remarkable for the turnaround from Cardiff.

Of course, one has to make one’s own luck. It would be specious to ascribe everything to a toss. Australia enjoyed the best of the batting conditions, but they made the most of them. On a tremendously docile pitch, Smith, ably supported by Chris Rogers, made hay while the sun shone.

Smith, dismissed as overrated after his twin failures in Cardiff, was imperious in becoming the first Australian since 1938 to score a double hundred at Lord’s. Since 1938, wars have been fought, nuclear fission discovered, walls (Berlin) and ceilings (glass) shattered. The world has changed.

The lustre of a double at Lord’s has not. Every shot was out of the middle: exquisite cover drives, leg glances from outside off, aggression down the track against spin. He moved the field around almost at will. His century and double were warmly received by a crowd that loves its cricket. They will do well to see better in a hurry.

The end came via declaration, with Australia 8-566. It was almost merciful, at least until the Mitchells and Josh Hazlewood found the correct length, which had eluded them at Cardiff.

Against such scoreboard pressure, England were always going to struggle. Struggle they did, with Australia’s pace attack ripping through the top order on Day 2 to have England 4-30 yet again. Trevor Bayliss will be concerned with the frailty of the top order, which so regularly leaves Joe Root and Ben Stokes a hole from which to save England.

Alastair Cook, though, stood defiant, his 96 as good as a century given the match conditions and the Australian attack. He needs some help.

With such a deficit, the game was as good as over. Well on top, Warner played himself into form in Australia’s second innings with a quickfire 80. Smith continued to have fun with a better than a run-a-ball 50. Australia declared just two down, with England needing more than 500 to win over five sessions. They would last just 37 overs in a capitulation of Fall of Singapore proportions. That was that. Momentum back with the Australians, England with much to ponder.

In Australia’s first innings, England toiled hard on a pitch that offered nothing. Stuart Broad was by far the pick of the bowlers. Cook’s problem was that he had only one Broad. The England camp will be concerned by James Anderson’s lack of penetration on pitches with little lateral movement, but it is hard to see England losing faith with their all-time top wicket taker, even if he did not take a wicket in the match.

They will surely consider bringing in Adil Rashid; Bayliss cannot be unaware of Australia’s problems against Devendra Bishoo in the West Indies. One expects Jonny Bairstow, in white-hot county form, will replace the out of form, leaden footed Gary Ballance. No further tinkering is needed.

England cannot continue with requesting such flat pitches. If they win the toss, and bat first, they are a chance of winning – this Australia seems to struggle with scoreboard pressure on flat pitches. On flat pitches, England are no chance if they lose the toss.

Every Test in this Ashes has gone to the team winning the toss (and batting first). It was the same in 2013. In 2013, England had Graeme Swann and Australia, initially no spinner. Moeen Ali is no Swann, and Nathan Lyon is better. Far more prudent than relying on a coin toss.

Risking “it on one turn of pitch-and-toss” may have worked for Rudyard Kipling, but it is far less likely to wash with Bayliss. Quicker pitches with some movement, event if not much carry, will allow Anderson and Broad to put the Australians under pressure.

Many think this Australia team good, though not great. The bowling attack is undeniably great. It is an upgrade on 2005 in the pace department, particularly sans Glenn McGrath. Starc, Johnson and Hazlewood ask such varied questions, and provide such constant pressure. They are ably supported by Lyon and Mitch Marsh, who performed superbly in his debut.

In the batting department, Warner seems to be starting to score freely. Clarke needs runs. His return has been paltry, and one suspects that his position would become untenable were Australia lose the series with Clarke having not contributed with the willow. The remaining question is what to do with Brad Haddin after Peter Nevill’s excellent debut (his seven dismissals a record on debut). One suspect’s Darren Lehmann will not want to tinker too much with a side coming off such a victory.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Australia, having wrested the momentum, will runaway with this series in the same manner as 1997, that the cosmos is back in equilibrium and Australia back to their 1989-2005 dominant best.

Jason Gillespie disagrees, and suggests it is 0-0 in a three-Test series. There are highs and lows to come. Who knows which; it is the Ashes. Toss a coin, you’ll be half right.