SPIRO: Wallabies and All Blacks to continue their winning way

The opening round of the 2015 The Rugby Championship saw the All Blacks defeat the Pumas at Christchurch last Friday. On Saturday the Wallabies pulled off a brilliant 10-phase try in the 82nd minute to defeat the Springboks.

The two home teams won their matches, in other words. Now they have to try and continue their winning run away from home. The All Blacks have to play the Springboks at Emirates Airlines Park, Johannesburg (alias Ellis Park, often a graveyard for New Zealand teams): and on Sunday morning (around 8:40 AEST) the Wallabies face off against the Pumas at the Estadio Malvinas Argentinas stadium, Mendoza.

The referee for the Springboks-All Blacks Test is Frenchman Jerome Garces, who has been known to flood the sidelines with yellow-carded players.

The referee for the Pumas-Wallabies Test is South African Jaco Peyper who refereed the Hurricanes-Brumbies 2015 Super Rugby semi-final with a calmness and accuracy he sometimes has not shown in Super Rugby matches in the past.

I give this information to set out how World Rugby is juggling the top referees before they appear in the 2015 Rugby World Cup tournament. It’s a bit like the method of the coaches of the national teams in The Rugby Championship, with the goal to find out which ones they can best entrust the big games to with the confidence that they will referee for a flowing, attractive and hard-played Test.

The two referees last weekend, South African Craig Joubert at Christchurch and Nigel Owens at Brisbane, achieved this outcome and spectators and players enjoyed two open games with plenty of running, smashing tackles and well-contested set pieces.

Here are some OPTA Facts on the Wallabies-Springboks Test: tackles A 114, South Africa 189, missed tackles A 17, South Africa 26, carries A 152, South Africa 97, metres A 508, passes A 229, South Africa 106, clean breaks A 8, SA 4, penalties conceded A 9, SA nine turnovers conceded A 18, South Africa 11, rucks won A 117, South Africa 68.

OPTA Facts on the All Blacks-Pumas Test: tackles New Zealand 103, Arg 97, missed tackles New Zealand 9 Arg 21, carries New Zealand 128, Arg 97, metres New Zealand 521, Arg 251, passes New Zealand 208, Arg 125, clean breaks New Zealand 15, Arg 3, penalties conceded New Zealand 11, Arg 11, turnovers conceded New Zealand 14, Arg 10, rucks won New Zealand 68, Arg 73.

These statistics indicate that the Wallabies kept the ball in hand more than the other teams. Their pass ratio was over double that of the Springboks. The Wallabies and Springboks, too, conceded fewer penalties (9) than the All Blacks (11) and the Pumas (11). The Wallabies conceded 18 turnovers compared with the ten of the Pumas.

The All Blacks did far more with their ball than any of the other sides with 15 metres more in carries than the Wallabies, even though the Wallabies had 34 more carries. They also missed the least number of tackles, 9, compared with the high figures of 26 by the Springboks.

When you look into these statistics you begin to understand why Wallabies coach Michael Cheika has selected the side to play the Pumas that he has.

The most telling change, in my opinion, is elevating David Pocock to the starting XV and keeping Michael Hooper as vice-captain on the bench.

It was noticeable in the first 40 minutes or so, especially, of the Test at Brisbane that the Wallabies were not getting players to the breakdown. Bismarck du Plessis was having a field day with turnovers. Scott Higginbotham and Scott Fardy were playing virtually on the wings.

When the ball got to Higginbotham in the clear, however, and with players outside him, he kicked it away. Both of these players were needed closer to the tackled ball to contest the ruck and maul.

Pocock was particularly good at this when he came on. Presumably, he has been selected to provide some sort of a contest to the Pumas forwards and backs who were expert at protecting their side’s ball at the ruck against the All Blacks.

Rather curiously, in my opinion, Cheika has retained Will Skelton as a starter. He did not provide much shoulder or strength as the right side second-rower on the tight head prop. Presumably, with Greg Holmes being promoted to the tight head starting role, the hope is that the poor scrumming on this side was due to Sekope Kepu, rather than Skelton.

I am doubtful about this. If Holmes, a noted scrummager, struggles then we will know that Skelton is a large part of the problem. If Holmes holds his own, then if Skelton’s play around the field picks up markedly from last weekend, then he will probably hold his place as a starter, at least until the returning Kane Douglas is given a run.

Ben McCalman has been given a run at number 8. McCalman is a solid, journeyman player who gives the Wallabies some aggression and shoulder at the close quarters play. But he doesn’t have the flair or the speed or the raw power to turn matches.

At some stage in the Test, Cheika will bring on Michael Hooper and take off either McCalman or Fardy in a sort of trial run of the two open side flankers to play against the All Blacks in the opening Bledisloe Cup match at Sydney.

Cheika will tune in, presumably, on how Heinrich Brussow goes against the All Blacks at Johannesburg. In my opinion, the major selection mistake of Heyneke Meyer has been his rejection of Brussow (some of it due to injury, admittedly) from his 23-man squads during his tenure as the Springboks coach.

When you have a pack as huge and unruly as the Springboks, you can afford to play a smaller fetcher like Brussow to get to the ball first and create opportunities, as Neil Back did in Sir Clive Woodward’s Rugby World Cup-winning side of 2003, for the big men to grab with both hands and rumble forward.

Cheika has rightly brought in Bernard Foley to replace Quade Cooper at number 10. Aside from everything else, Cooper’s goal-kicking is not good enough to take into the Rugby World Cup tournament as the main kicker.

It is interesting, too, that Cheika has both Cooper and Kurtley Beale in his reserves. There has been some chatter that Cheika is looking at Beale and/or Cooper for the wing, later on in the game.

There is some sense in this, only because for all the metres he gains with his running, Israel Folau is not a creator of breaks and tries from the fullback position. He is a finisher. You could see the difference between the finisher and the creator in the way Israel Dagg (the original Israel) created opportunities for his wingers against the Pumas.

The Springboks have retained the same back line that, during the game, seemed so lethal. Jesse Kriel and Damian de Allende look to be the most aggressive, attacking centres combination the Springboks have fielded for some time.

Curious, though, the statistics of the Test against the Wallabies do not support the impression during the Test that the Springboks were keeping the ball in hand effectively and purposefully. They made minimal clean breaks and were well behind the Wallabies (and All Blacks, for that matter) in passes made.

This is an inexperienced centre combination with young Handre Pollard, also inexperienced, running the backline.

Will the occasion of a huge challenge from the All Blacks, even though the Springboks are playing in the traditional spiritual home of Springboks rugby, prove to be too much for them?

It could be.

They will certainly miss the experience of Victor Matfield the forwards. Matfield now is a hedgehog player, brilliant only in the lineout. But his calling, leaping, and organising of rolling mauls are about as good as anyone in rugby has or will ever achieve.

The Springboks were never the force they were early on in the Test at Brisbane without his leadership in the forwards. He will be missed by the Springboks if their tactics are centered around the driving mauls, the Matfield speciality.

I am predicting an All Blacks victory, despite the Ellis Park cauldron of support for the Springboks. The All Blacks have a solid core of players from winning the 2011 Rugby World Cup tournament who can absorb the most highly-charged pressure, even of Ellis Park.

And in the two Highlander Smiths (Aaron and Ben) they have two players at the height of their powers that make them the best backs in world rugby.

There is a huge test in front of Lima Sopoaga, playing his first Test and being the front-line goal kicker, at Ellis Park. But he has the most experienced All Blacks centre pairing (Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith) in the modern era outside him and his Highlanders mates, the two other Smiths at halfback and wing to help him through the match.

The Pumas broke the hoodoo of losing to the Wallabies last year at Mendoza, their first victory against them after nine successive losses. In The Rugby Championship, five of the six Tests between the two teams have been settled by a losing margin of 7 or fewer points.

In Argentina, particularly, the Pumas are not an easy side to roll. They played well against the All Blacks at Christchurch, although the scoreboard did not really reflect this fact.

However, I am predicting a Wallabies victory. The team will be better for having a first outing against the Springboks, and a victory snatched after the final whistle. Teams that win victories like this usually have a sense of invincibility about them, at least for their next Test.