There are a couple of old adages in rugby which have universally stood the test of time.
1. The team that scores just before or just after halftime stands a good chance of winning.
2. The team that finishes the strongest stands a good chance of winning.
Now those statements are hardly earth shattering, but the great J.J. Stewart once said:
“Rugby is a simple game, played by simple men, so let’s keep it simple.”
So here is a simple analysis on why the All Blacks have managed to win an extraordinary 41 out of 45 matches since the 2011 World Cup. They follow the above formula.
In the last 45 Tests the All Blacks have outscored their opposition 162-90 in the period five minutes before and five minutes after halftime. They have only lost that period of the match ten times.
Already this year the All Blacks have struck vital blows in this period against Argentina and South Africa.
Ma’a Nonu barged over for a try just before the interval in Christchurch against the Pumas while Ben Smith tied a game in the 39th minute the Springboks had dominated.
In Dunedin in 2014, Smith dramatically chased down England’s Manu Tuilagi when he seemed certain to score a try. Had Tuilagi scored it could have been 17-3 to the visitors.
Instead a few moments later Aaron Cruden kicked a penalty to make it 10-6 at halftime and then he scored a converted try shortly after halftime. The All Blacks won the game by a point.
Even more telling is the fact the All Blacks have outscored their opponents 221-77 in the last ten minutes of Tests since 2012. The All Blacks have only lost this period of the match five times and only concede 5 per cent of all points in this period, while scoring 15 per cent.
There have been some notable last-minute wins. They include:
A Dan Carter drop goal to beat Ireland 22-19 in Christchurch in 2012.
A Ryan Crotty try and Aaron Cruden conversion to beat Ireland 24-22 in Dublin in 2013.
A Conrad Smith try to beat England 20-15 in Auckland in 2014.
A Malakai Fekitoa try to beat Australia in Brisbane in 2014.
It is of course important to score point at any moment of the match, but it seems some moments are more important than other and the All Blacks have an uncanny knack of scoring when it counts.
Nick
Guest
scrum before it was very solid with 7 v 8. I dont think theres as much likelihood of that at all stillmatic1
Nick
Guest
"deliberate intent to infringe"? Thats possibly the most ridiculous thing ive read here. A split second difference between onside or off and its a "deliberate intent to infringe"? Thats so weak red Kev, so very weak
Nick
Guest
6 players? No Actually No
superba
Guest
Rebel I have neither the time nor the inclination to do as you ask and trawl through data to crunch numbers to win an argument .You will know that some arguments are not worth having .In any event there is the perception that the ABs tend to play on the wrong side of fair .That perception exists and the ABs own it .Sure they are winners and I respect their results .But a lot of the time they seem.to.be better at gamesmanship than sportsmanship. After all who invented lazy running and why is there a penalty for it ? Go figure .
Zero Gain
Guest
No, we have the future also. Until it happens, anyway.
superba
Guest
Who was the linesman/ref combo in the ABs vs Boks match in NZ when Fitzpatrick threw a quick lineout ball to win the match .And the replay shows both of Fitz's feet firmly planted inside the touchline .
stillmatic1
Guest
yep, and considering how much pressure we were under, we would've almost certainly given up a try or penalty try I reckon. the decision to have uncontested scrums saved us. so thankyou south Africa.
stillmatic1
Guest
i do feel free to disagree billy. also what is the point in being humble when we support the greatest sports team on the planet.....................
Taylorman
Guest
I think we just have another case of the ABs outsmarting everyone, opposition and refs alike. They have obviously practised that move so many times its was delivered with perfection in the context of the situation. One chance, in. Nothing new or original, just timed to catch everyone out. Another case of the ABs staying ahead of the pack. No time for the ref to start thinking about what just happened and when its all over, they've moved on while others are still talking about what just happened. Even I feel robbed... :-)
superba
Guest
Rebel I really don't have the time or the inclination to do as you suggest .But what I will say is this .There is out there the impression , the perception ,that the ABs , well , not to use too harsh a word but I know no other , tend to cheat a bit .Play on the wrong side of fair .A perception which they seem to own .Now I stand corrected but have often read about it on this site .That the perception is there does not behove me or anyone to crunch numbers to convince you otherwise.Or try to win an argument.It is , quite simply , something AB supporters have had to live with for a long time .The WBs do not have this "genre" .They tend to complain a lot .I respect the ABs achievements but sometimes their gamesmanship rather than sportsmanship goes beyond this pale.
Taylorman
Guest
:-)
superba
Guest
Rebel paleez get it right . Am posted as Superba not Superbra .Have a BMI of 25 and fit as .And no gynaecomastia .If you don't mind .Mate .
Shane D
Roar Rookie
Pretty good response to the classic schoolboy whine "they are cheating sir".
moaman
Guest
Katipo! Yeah,fully agree.Remember "The Wedge'?
moaman
Guest
Ahhhhhhhh doh! I didn't notice that-very clever mate! My keyboard is giving me grief......sticks sometimes on certain letters......probably needs some kind of radical clean.
Jerry
Guest
"When is the last time the abs blew a top six side away , several years at least" Well, they beat Wales 5 tries to 1 at the end of last year. They also beat England 5 tries to 1 in the 3rd test last year. Those not good enough for you? How about, I dunno...when they put 50 points on Australia last year. So, no - not several years.
moaman
Guest
Only saw part of the game ,Billy Bob----relied on the blog for updates...that's why I asked.
Magnus
Guest
Mad Mick , the opposition are getting closer and closer . When is the last time the abs blew a top six side away , several years at least . It's either a great plan for 2015 World Cup or the abs are doing the best they can with well over half the team due to retire in two months . There are clearly on form at least 6 players who should have been moved on after 2011 , if this had happened we would have a much more youthful team with 3years test experience under their belts .
Mad Mick
Guest
The best way not to get in those situation is to bring in the right personnel at the right time either off the bench or into the starting 15. There is some unbelievable match winning talent that the ABs are not tapping into and I'm not talking about SBW. He has not played a red hot 80 mins for about 5 years. Messam cant keep players like Shields and Elliott Dixon out for much longer. Woodcock is a liability in defense just the same as John Smit the ex SA capt was. All the opposition have to do is run at him and there is a line break. NZ can do much better but have to give a way the sentimentality before its too late. Conrad, Carter, Woodcock, Kevi Messam, SBW, Vito are behind the standards required. If they pick the talent available there wont be any close games.
Old Bugger
Guest
Havalook at the 5th word in your 11.59am post above....gave me a chuckle when I saw 3-G's....