Friday Night Forecast: Hawks and Tigers in a top-four showdown

The chances of a contest are a little higher than last week in tonight’s Friday night football.

Richmond and Hawthorn battle in what could be a game to decide final positions at the pointy end of the ladder.

The Tigers’ top-four hopes will receive a big boost should they get the win, while Hawthorn’s charge to top spot will get a fillip with a third win over a top side in four weeks.

Richmond loom as a challenging assignment, but really, the Hawks should have no trouble.

Before we dive into this one, a quick look at last week’s Friday Night Forecast.

Prediction: Hawthorn to defeat Carlton by infinity points.
Actual: Hawthorn defeated Carlton by 138 points.

Some said the Hawks would mail it in against the Blues, others said they’d rest some players. If they did, oh my God!

A percentage-boosting victory over Carlton was less about four points than a statement to their nine remaining opponents: this is our flag to lose.

My prediction was a little young in cheek, but when you consider it was both the biggest score kicked and largest margin of the year to date, well, it’s pretty damn close to infinity.

Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.

Hawthorn versus Richmond
Friday, 31 July
Bouncedown: 7:50pm (AEST)
Melbourne Cricket Ground

How does the AFL ladder look if we only take games from Round 9 onwards?

First of all: Why are we not talking about the Western Bulldogs?

Oh yeah. Right. How sad. Six wins, admittedly against a very weak slate of games, has pretty well locked them in the eight with seven games remaining.

Second of all, tonight’s game is a battle between two of the best four teams of the second half of the year to date. And wouldn’t you know it, both sides have a lot on the line.

Hawthorn, with a gargantuan percentage of 200 since their last loss (and yes, that means they have doubled their opponents’ score), will need to keep winning so as to knock one of the Western Australia teams out of the top two. Richmond has a legitimate chance at the fourth seed for September, and the prospect of dodging a trip through two of the best three sides that comes with it.

On paper it’s hard to mount a case against the Hawks. They’re legitimately in the conversation for best team of the modern era – if they haven’t already got the title – and are going so well they’re bringing in guys like Ben Stratton and Liam Shiels. Everyone knows what they’re doing and how they’re doing it, so let’s focus on the Tigers, shall we?

Richmond’s new-found defensive identify has served them well in the second part of the season, and if it weren’t for a historically freakish six posters, they would have comfortably accounted for the ladder leaders for the second time this season.

The Tigers have also been quite good against the Hawks in recent years (although somehow have managed to avoid playing them twice since 2008), winning the 2012 and 2013 throwdowns by 62 and 41 points respectively. Just don’t mention 2014’s 10-goal drubbing.

In both of Richmond’s victories, the Tigers have absolutely smashed the Hawks in contested possessions (I’m talking 30-plus on both occasions), suggesting the key has been winning the ball on the inside. But that’s not Hawthorn’s game in 2015: it’s all about movement on the outside.

So Richmond’s key to victory will be containing Hawthorn’s half backs and wings, and reducing their ability to get the ball in dangerous places forward of centre. That’s been Richmond’s strength since Round 9, allowing just 44 inside 50s per game (ranked third) and conceding a crude scoring accuracy of 47.6 per cent (ranked second).

Where the Tigers have been let down is stopping teams from scoring once they get inside 50. Of all Hawthorn’s strengths, this is actually the biggest one.

Richmond may seek to play a more Sydney-style, ‘clog the lane’ defensive scheme, and hope to hold the Hawks to a more average rate of score per inside 50. It could work, but it will probably be the difference between the Hawks scoring 95 points and the Hawks scoring 120. Richmond are not very likely to get close to 120, but there’s a slim chance they could be ultra-efficient up forward and kick a 90-plus score.

As I say, tipping against the Hawks in the next nine games is not advised. Have you seen them play football? I’m not even convinced what they are doing is football.

The Hawks will win this, but Richmond will do well to keep the margin to five goals.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?