An amateur preview of the RWC 2015 (Part I)

It’s that time again. It’s time to see which side is best prepared for the hostilities of Rugby World Cup 2015.

I know that this is not the first assessment published on The Roar, but I would feel remiss if I didn’t write something about it.

Besides, how else can my predictions be recorded to be laughed at after they prove to be completely incorrect?

In order of pools, here are some brief prospects for the twenty teams involved.

Pool A: Three (and a half) doesn’t go into two
For my first fearless prediction: There will be tears on 10 October when one of the top eight nations is eliminated at the group stage.

England, Australia and Wales can feel a little aggrieved at the process they will have to undergo just to qualify for the knockout stage. However, there is also a nice carrot on offer for them.

The winner of this pool will get probably the easiest quarter-final opponent of all the top qualifiers, while avoiding both South Africa and New Zealand until the final. Not a bad reward for beating two top eight nations first up.

Christopher Roche wrote an excellent article effectively illustrating that this path gave the Wallabies a good chance of at least making the final. While his reasoning is mostly sound, the key hole is that it assumes that they finish top of their pool – for which he gives no explanation for.

Don’t get me wrong, this is by no means beyond the Wallabies. But it is also far from guaranteed.

As mentioned, they have the toughest company of the RC nations. The draw is another obstacle.

Once Australia begin, they will get no break longer than a week, with this coming between the crucial matches against England and Wales.

To make matters worse, these two games are the last pool matches they have. In other words, they will potentially have five critical matches in a row, should they keep winning, with no chance to rest key players.

Can the Wallabies win the whole thing? Maybe, but only if they win their pool.

Should they finish second, they will have a tough date with the Boks in the quarter-finals, with the looming prospect of a semi with the All Blacks. The Wallabies have shown they can beat either of these teams on their day. Beating both in consecutive weeks is a different ask altogether.

England will also fancy themselves to finish top of the pool. They are playing at home, they have arguably the best squad depth of the three teams and, perhaps most crucially, they have had the wood on both Australia and Wales in their recent encounters.

In addition, their showings against New Zealand and South Africa suggest that this English team is a genuine contender for the Webb Ellis trophy.

I thus expect England to top Pool A, with Australia taking the second spot.

Wales. They can’t win the tournament. The best they can hope for is a quarter-final loss. Don’t believe anything Warren Gatland says that contradicts these statements.

Like Australia, to have any hope of winning, they have to top their pool. If beating South Africa and New Zealand in consecutive weeks is a difficult prospect for the Wallabies, it is damn near impossible for the Dragons, with their woeful record against Southern Hemisphere teams.

To achieve this, they must beat both Australia, who fall under the ‘woeful record’ label, and England, who have looked much the stronger team of late.

Beating one of them is tough, but possible. Beating both strains likelihood to breaking levels.

They will also have Fiji to contend with. In World Cups past, Fiji have looked either impressive or god-awful.

Results this season so far indicate that Pool A teams will be contending with the former. While the Fijians shouldn’t threaten England or Australia, Wales look to be possible targets to torpedo. Such a result could throw another spanner in an already-complex works.

And while watching whatever team you happen to support this year, spare a thought for poor old Uruguay. This will be their first appearance at the finals since 2003. In the past two cups, they have dutifully worked their way through the Americas and Repechage stages, only to be eliminated at the last hurdle.

This time around, they have finally qualified, only to be thrown in the metaphorical lions’ den. Fiji is the only team they have a chance in hell of beating, and it would take a braver man than I to bet on that result.

Hopefully it takes them less than twelve years to qualify for their next World Cup finals.

Final prediction: England and Australia to progress, in that order.

Pool B: The making or breaking of a champion team
South Africa are my favourites to win the World Cup. They have the necessary squad depth, good form in the last few years, and a style of rugby that is well suited to a finals series. The problem they have is their pool.

Make no mistake, South Africa will top this pool. There is simply no team in this pool capable of beating them. This is the root of the problem. There is a very real chance that this Springboks team could go into a quarter-final against Wales, Australia or England underdone.

Heyneke Meyer would be well advised to study the All Blacks’ campaign of 2007 for an illustration of how a weak pool can adversely affect a team, and for methods to avoid this.

To be fair, he seems alert to the danger, and is likely to enter the competition with a much better idea of his team than the New Zealanders did eight years ago.

Like the All Blacks, I suspect Meyer will use their game against Scotland as a litmus test to ensure their campaign is on track. Unfortunately for him, and again like in 2007, the Scots may not be willing to play ball.

With a crucial match against Samoa a week later, I would not be surprised to see Scotland rest key players against South Africa, effectively passing up this game in order to increase their chances of making the quarter-finals.

This pool is in many ways focussed the clash between Scotland and Samoa. Both teams are difficult to judge. There were claims Scotland was improving to some measure of its former glory in 2014, but a rubbish Six Nations and results against the southern powers seems to have put paid to that.

Put bluntly, it seems difficult to justify Scotland’s place at rugby’s top table anymore.

Samoa, on the other hand, has the opposite problem. In spite of their results, they have been continuously denied a place alongside Argentina in the Rugby Championship.

While a lack of revenue, facilities and (possibly) some less-than-stellar governance over the years have been cited as reasons, these will be increasingly difficult to maintain if Samoa continues performing at a high level.

They certainly have an excellent chance of making the quarter-finals this time around. The battle between Scotland and Samoa for this spot will be an interesting match-up with this background.

The cases of both the US and Japan are equally intriguing. Both have been shown a lot of faith by the established powers, on account of the enormous revenue they could bring into the game.

Both teams could act as potential spoilers for either Scotland or Samoa, although on current form Japan would appear to be more likely to.

And both will be under some pressure to perform well in order to justify the faith shown thus far.

Japan will be under particular pressure. Despite attending every finals so far, they have won only one game and drawn two. Since they will be hosting the next edition of the cup, it will be important to see that talk of a global game is more than just talk.

The US meanwhile will have to show that rugby is improving there to justify visits from top nations that, say, Canada does not get despite having a stronger team.

My prediction: South Africa and Samoa to progress.

Next article: The last two pools and some general thoughts