Five reasons why Nat Fyfe will not win the Brownlow

One only has to stand in the crowd at any AFL game to realise the general football public rarely see eye-to-eye with the umpires.

The raucous calls of “ball”, followed by the vociferous disapproval of one set of supporters or another constantly echo around the ground while the ball is in play.

A glance at the big screen shows the same discontent as the camera zooms in on an unsuspecting fan gesticulating wildly, screaming his or her disapproval of any given decision.

As it is on game day, so it is with the Brownlow Medal.

Favourites seldom win. It may not be as rare an occasion as the majority of a crowd agreeing with a decision at the MCG on a Saturday afternoon, but only four favourites have managed to take home ‘Charlie’ on the AFL’s night of nights this century – Ben Cousins (2004), Adam Goodes (2005), and Gary Ablett Jr (twice, in 2009 and 2013).

This year, as last, a betting agency paid out on the raging hot favourite early. In 2014 it was ‘The Little Master’ Ablett, while this year Crown Bet paid out on the heir apparent Nat Fyfe in May.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, so it is surprising a betting agency would be willing to take the same risk this year given what happened to Ablett in Round 15, 2014 against Collingwood.

Nat Fyfe is, and deserves to be, the raging hot favourite for the 2015 Brownlow Medal. However at around the $1.60 mark at most betting agencies, there are plenty of better things to spend your hard earned on, particularly when history (and some other evidence) suggests he might actually be at long odds to take home Charlie.

Here are five reasons Nat Fyfe will not win the Brownlow Medal.

History
Since a number of Brownlow winners were at double-figure odds, with Jason Akermanis (2001) and Chris Judd (2010) paying $15, and Shane Woewodin (2000) and Adam Cooney (2008) $13 for their respective wins.

In 2010, when Judd collected his second medal, Dane Swan was a raging hot favourite. The following year, Judd was favourite and Swan won with a record 34 votes.

The same applies to many of the other ‘player of the year’ awards given out by various media outlets and the two associations – players and coaches. Rarely does a player taking out any of these awards in any given year also win the Brownlow.

Since 2000, only four times out of a possible 42 has a winner from either the AFL Players Association, AFL Coaches Association or the Herald Sun player of the year awards also collected the Brownlow.

Injury
Until he injured his shoulder against Collingwood in Round 15 last year, Gary Ablett Jr was considered a certainty to take out the 2014 Brownlow Medal. Until that injury he was leading the Brownlow count comfortably, polling an amazing 22 votes to narrowly go down by only four votes to eventual winner Matt Priddis.

As was the case with Ablett, Fyfe was (and still is) the raging hot favourite. However the cork to his quad that he coincidently sustained in Round 15 against Hawthorn has been compounded by a groin injury. The two concurrent injuries have led to a substantial drop in form over the last three weeks, and has forced him to miss his first game of the year, against Gold Coast.

Although he is a deserved favourite, according to Champion Data Fyfe was not as far ahead of the pack in Round 15 as Ablett was at the same stage of the season in 2014. Even a lean month could bring him back to the field, and as groins can be notoriously troublesome at times, he may miss more than just the one week.

Fremantle coach Ross Lyon will take no risks with his best player, and has said he will go by whatever the club doctor says – whether that be one week’s rest or six.

MRP
Fyfe plays on the edge and has been fined twice already this season by the Match Review Panel. Any further indiscretions on the field will result in an automatic one-week suspension, meaning he will be ineligible to win the Brownlow.

In 2014 Fyfe almost became the second player to top the medal count after being ruled ineligible due to suspension, finishing a solitary point behind winner Priddis.

Could he become that second player this year?

David Mundy
An impediment to winning the Brownlow in a top side is that there are obviously more quality players, therefore Brownlow votes will be shared among more players.

While Nat Fyfe’s early season form has had the football world in a frenzy of adulation, fellow Docker David Mundy has quietly gone about having his own best season to date. He is averaging 26 disposals per game compared to 24 last year, and is taking more marks, making more tackles, and scoring more goals.

Although Fyfe is averaging two more disposals per game, all their other statistics this season are very similar.

In rounds 1, 2, 5, 6 and 8, Mundy was exceptional and it would not surprise to see him pick up Brownlow votes in any or all of those games.

And over the last month while Fyfe has struggled, Mundy has arguably been Fremantle’s best player in a winning side, and will most likely pick up a few more votes during this period.

Mundy polled 10 votes last year, showing he does attract the attention of the umpires, and the fact that he is getting more free kicks this year than last leads one to wonder how many votes he may have taken off Fyfe.

Other players
There are a number of players who have had outstanding seasons in 2015. Priddis has arguably had a better season than he did in 2014, averaging two more disposals per game. Sam Mitchell has also had a very consistent season, averaging over 30 disposals per game compared to 27 last year, while Patrick Dangerfield may not be as consistent as previous years, but has had a number of games that would have caught the eyes of the umpires.

Scott Pendlebury, Trent Cotchin, Dayne Beams, Dan Hannebery and Jack Steven have all had outstanding years and would more than likely be leading their respective clubs’ best and fairest.

Then there is Todd Goldstein. The North Melbourne big man has been a stand-out this season, and it would certainly be hard for the umpires to miss him. Although no ruckman has won the Brownlow since Scott Wynd in 1992, in the 20 years previous to Wynd’s win, eight ruckmen took out the award. It would be no surprise to see Goldstein become the first ruckman since that time to top the medal count.

While Nat Fyfe will no doubt be in the running for the 2015 Brownlow Medal, it is hardly the lay down misère that many are making it out to be. It is often said that a week is a long time in footy, and with seven to go before the end of the home-and-away season anything can happen.

Then of course there is the undeniable fact that umpires and the footy public rarely see eye to eye, and since most of us think Fyfe is a good thing to take out Charlie, he more than likely will not.