The new racing season is under away with some underwhelming Group 2 weight for age races headlining meetings in Sydney and Melbourne.
In last Saturday’s Missile Stakes (1200m, Group 2, Weight for Age), a lacklustre field of eight turned out for Sydney’s first Group race of the season. The headline talent was strong but the race fell away quickly.
This weekend, Caulfield plays host to the PB Lawrence (1400m) and judging by the nominations, it too will be a substandard Group 2 weight for age contest.
In Australia, where we devalue Group 1 racing by running more than 70 top-level races, there is a flow-on effect that sees too many races run at weight for age.
Weight for age Group racing brings the best horses together by using a time-honoured pound-for-pound system and, accordingly, it should be reserved for the best horses in the country.
At a time where the number of top horses trained in Australia is limited due to early retirements to stud and the breeding of less middle-distance gallopers, there should not be weight for age racing so early in the season. The Warwick Stakes (1400m, Group 2), should be the first weight for age race of the Australian season. It is run in the second half of August and always produces a field worthy of its status.
As for races like the PB Lawrence and the Missile, well they should be run at set weights and penalties conditions.
There are only 25 horses who are weight for age class in Australia and among them there are few who would be able to win weight for age races on the global stage.
To be considered for the 25 a horse must be: trained in Australia, active (not retired), had at least one start in Australia, and be able to consistently compete with any horse in Australia at weight for age within their distance range this season. Horses trained in New Zealand who are expected to do most of their racing in Australia are also eligible for consideration.
Sprinters
Chautauqua
The most consistent Group 1 sprinter in the land, he got his just desserts when producing an enormous finishing spurt to win the best sprint in the land, the TJ Smith (1200m, Group 1, Weight for Age) in the autumn. One the best horses in Australia.
Lankan Rupee
Won two Group 1 weight for age races last season. His ability to quicken off a fast speed makes him extremely hard to beat when on top of his game.
Lucky Hussler
Graduated to weight for age last autumn with a soft victory in the William Reid Stakes (1200m, Group 1, weight-for-age). The William Reid is one of at least 25 Group 1 races not deserving of the title. Lucky Hussler scrapes into this list and he will need to win at weight for age in the spring to justify his spot.
Terravista
Nicknamed ‘WBS’ by trainer Joe Pride, Terravista’s victory against Chautauqua and Lankan Rupee in last spring’s Darley Sprint Classic (1200m, Group 1, weight for age) led many to believe he was the world’s best sprinter. He didn’t win in the autumn, but always acquitted himself well against the best sprinters we have.
Milers
Amanpour
Beat the best mares in Australia at The Championships and at weight for age. That all-the-way victory means I regard her as a weight for age horse, but she will need to produce similar performances this spring to maintain the standing.
Boban
A four-time Group 1 winner, twice at weight for age, while he was disappointing all too often last season, Boban still showed in the Brisbane winter that he is weight for age quality by winning the Doomben 10000 (1350m, Group 1, Weight for Age).
Burbero
Late-blooming seven-year-old Burbero has matured into a weight for age horse. He was an impressive winner of Saturday’s Missile Stakes but he earned his billing with a strong sixth in March’s George Ryder (1500m, Group 1, Weight for Age). The eligible horses that beat him that day are also in the 25.
Catkins
A modern-day Emancipation, the grey mare is probably the most popular racehorse in the Harbour City and while she is yet to claim a Group 1, she has run a place in four Group 1 weight for age races.
Kermadec
The runaway Doncaster (1600m, Group 1, handicap) winner had a fantastic autumn. He was a super third in the George Ryder on route to his Championships success. He will be a big player in this spring’s Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight for age).
Royal Descent
In seven weight for age starts last season, Royal Descent amassed three seconds, a third and a fourth. She doesn’t win very often but she is weight for age class.
Suavito
The improving mare has emerged as a weight for age galloper this year. She was fantastic when spoiling Dissident’s party in the Futurity (1400m, Group 1, weight for age) and followed it up with a strong victory in the Blamey (1600m, Group 2, set weights and penalties).
Weary
When Weary brings his best form he runs very well at weight for age. In the last 16 months he’s accumulated five weight for age placings. That alone sneaks him into the category.
Middle Distance
Complacent
Has been off the scene for two years but when he last raced, as a three-year-old, he was one of the most exciting prospects in the country. His strong victory over Criterion in the 2013 Spring Champion (2000m, Group 1, three-year-olds, set weights) reads very well today. Peter Snowden, who used to train this Godolphin galloper, had a huge opinion of him. Complacent will win a Group 1 this spring.
Contributer
Is Contributer the best weight for age performer in Australia? He dominated the autumn with wins in the Apollo (1400m, Group 1, weight for age), Chipping Norton (1600m, Group 1, weight for age) and Ranvet (2000m, Group 1, weight for age). He is all class and unbeaten in three weight for age races.
Criterion
The globe-trotting Criterion is clearly a weight for age horse. He walked in against a strong (by what we have come to expect of our top 2000m races) Queen Elizabeth (Group 1, weight for age) field in the autumn. He has placed twice at International Group 1 level in Hong Kong in the last nine months. He tackles the Juddmonte International – the highest-ranked race by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities – in a matter of days.
Fawkner
Had a fantastic 2014 spring where he went from a good horse to perhaps our best middle-distance horse. He won the Caulfield Stakes (2000m, Group 1, weight for age) by beating Criterion and was a narrow second in the biggest weight for age race of them all, the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1).
Happy Trails
Won the Mackinnon (2000m, Group 1, weight for age) last year and was a good third in a fair Australian Cup (2000m, Group 1, weight for age) in March. There is such a thing as a Group 2 weight for age horse and the ageing Happy Trails is it. He won’t win the Cox Plate (but he did run second in one!) or a Queen Elizabeth but, he is good enough to beat the second stringers this season.
Pornichet
The import had a fantastic end to the racing year. He came via an unusual route to land Doncaster favouritism but the mile was too short for him that day. When he lobbed in a weight for age race, the Doomben Cup (2020m, Group 1), he bolted in. Gai Waterhouse thinks he can win the Cox Plate.
Spillway
Continues to improve since coming to Australia two years ago. He won the Australian Cup by a nose (after looking like he’d do it easily) and then wasn’t disgraced in the Queen Elizabeth. Too slow for a mile but tested at 2000m, he will frustrate more than he impresses but he is weight for age quality.
Volkstok’n’barrell
The Rosehill Guineas (2000m, Group 1, three-year-olds, set weights) winner, Volkstok’n’barrell, is a top New Zealand horse who will prove his wares at weight for age this spring. Is he good enough to win a major? Potentially. He’ll impress in some big races in the coming months.
Mile and a half
Hartnell
Won the BMW (2400m, Group 1, weight for age) with authority. Godolphin hope he can win their first Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap). That’s doubtful but Hartnell’s ability is not.
Hauraki
Split Mongolian Khan and Volkstok’n’barrell in the Australian Derby. Obviously I rate that race highly, with all three place-getters making this list. I’m expecting big things from Hauraki’s four-year-old year, including a maiden Group 1 victory.
Mongolian Khan
The reigning Australian (2400m, Group 1, three-year-olds, set weights) and New Zealand (2400m, Group 1, three-year-olds, set weights) Derby winner is a fantastic stayer, with huge spring aims and an even bigger will to win. He may not be tested at weight for age at his favourite 2400m journey until next year’s BMW, but I’m confident he’s a weight for age horse.
Three-year-olds
Pride of Dubai
As a two-year-old Pride of Dubai possessed an amazing will to win that you do not often see in horses of that age. He plain and simply had no right to win the Blue Diamond (1200m, Group 1, two-year-olds, set weights) after getting poleaxed at a crucial stage. To follow that up with victory in the ATC Sires Produce (1400m, Group 1, two-year-olds, set weights) after travelling wide throughout means that Pride of Dubai is a special horse. He will make the weight for age grade.
Vancouver
The unbeaten Golden Slipper (1200m, Group 1, two-year-olds, set weights) winner ranks in the top-five juveniles I have ever seen. On that basis, he will measure up to weight for age level.
Scuba
Guest
They win a maiden in NZ and the offers flood in from Hong Kong. Given the state of prizemoney in NZ it's not a surprise that most owners accept the offer.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Hi Andrew. You can email me: tristan [at] theroar.com.au
sportsfan
Guest
Can set square go on to bigger things this spring only one group one thus far but seems to have more upside as a four year old ?
Mike from Tari
Guest
That's been said before, let's hope that he doesn't make you eat his oats.
Jason Cave
Guest
Just wondering, what has happened to the Kiwi raiders who used to come over here and plunder the big races like the Caulfield Cup, W.S. Cox Plate and the Emirates Melbourne Cup. Would it be fair to say that the NZ stayers are not as good as they used to be 20-30 years ago? -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Andrew, it was confirmed last week that Catkins will race on. Agree on Delicacy. Her time will come in 2016. Very good point on the 3yos as well.
Justin Cinque
Expert
He would have to have a high ranking Tristan but I don't think he can go with the younger guns these days.
andrew
Guest
i have a list of 60 horses to follow for this season, with reasons for each one, which i would be happy to put up here, but its probably too long to just post as a comment, if someone can tell me where to email it too, i will. the list is a range of horses from WFA, stayers, sprinters, 3yo, mares... and also a long list of lower graded horses who i think can progress 20 points in their rating and win several races along the way.
andrew
Guest
a few comments in response to others: i understnad catkins to be retired. delicacy wont be racing this spring in melb. prob a few runs WA over summer. sensible management given her busy 3yo season if this is about WFA, its only the cox plate, maybe geroge main over spring, one can be considering for 3yo until autumn. sometimes a 3yo runs in the sprint on emeritates stks day, but not often. rich enuff will make it WFA, but can run in hcps this spring. perhaps the autumn is when he will run races like the orr/futurity i see mongolian khan as more of a staying, hcp type, than a WFA horse.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I forgot to mention Buffering, Justin! Surely he's still one of our best WFA sprinters! :)
Justin Cinque
Expert
Wandjina is at stud hence his omission. Rich Enuff could definitely become the fifth WFA sprinter in Aus or replace Lucky Hussler in that mould
Justin Cinque
Expert
Could it just be that Boban isnt up to Melb/Syd WFA level? This spring will be telling for his future. Lake Geneva is in the Furnaces, Ottoman, Haptic grade. Im not sure where they sit but it is definitely below the Vancouver, POD level. Not much love for Catkins today. Maybe she isnt that popular after all!
Justin Cinque
Expert
Nice list there James. Cosmic Endeavour got punted at the last minute for me... So she's close to the mark in my mind. Mourinho is the unlucky one on my list. I didnt rate the Melb autumn WFA races he was in highly. In saying that he is one more WFA win away from being an obvious WFA horse.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Hi Andrew. Its a list of horses who will make the grade at weight for age this season.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Her feat was something special but there's still a gap to making the step to weight for age. Lucia Valentina won a Vinery Stud so impressively at three yet isnt on the list as a 5yo now
Justin Cinque
Expert
With Catkins she is hard to place because she is a 1400m horse who would get weighted out of all but the big handicaps. Yeah I would go the George Main, Epsom, Myer route. Time will tell re Happy Trails. I dont think hes going as well as those guns were at the same age but he'll be there having a shot.
Justin Cinque
Expert
He sure is a warrior Brent, Mongolian Khan. Does he have the speed to do any early Carnival damage? If he is sprinting well fresh, I think that puts him right on track for the big ones.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Our mile ranks are definitely super weak which probably explains why an international has won the last two George Ryders. The loss of Pierro and All Too Hard to stud duties really put a dent in those ranks. Just on Catkins, she is no 6 time Group 1 winner but there is hardly a more consistent performer in the land.
Scuba
Guest
There's a few debatable ones dotted throughout the list, but the standout is the lack of quality milers: Amanpour - some horse has to win the rubbish G1 F+M races we run. Doesn't mean they are true WFA horses. Boban - who knows which one will turn up on any given day. WFA form on the whole is horrible compared to his handicap form. Burbero - so good that he started at double figures on the weekend in a race you've described (correctly) as lacklustre. Good enough to pick up a weak WFA race when the good horses are getting fit, no better. Catkins - she is a Sydney-based grey mare. That's about where the similarities with 6-time group 1 winner and Horse of the Year Emancipation end. Past her best, which is still good enough to win weak F+M races. Kermadec - the exception on the list. Very good horse. Think Sweynesse can also step up if they don't try to stretch him to 2000 again. Royal Descent - she hasn't won since Adam was a boy and has turned it up a few times when she has raced up to win. Always runs well but not a punting proposition. Suavito - good mare but out of the spring as noted above. Weary - has won 2 out of 15 in Australia. No thanks.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Fantastic discussion around each category for mine in each category my top picks are Lankan Rupee, Kermadec, Porchinet, Mongolian Khan and Vancouver. My favourite on that list is Mongolian Khan has all the qualities you want in a racing horse and is tough as nails! Porchinet looks set to blow a feature out of the water this spring whether it is the Cox Plate we will wait and see. Being bold in prediction and obviously not knowing barrier draws and whether horses will pick up an injury I like Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield and Porchinet in the Cox Plate. One I continue to speculate on for the Melbourne Cup is Le Roi, but it is so early in the piece and I'm sure we will get a good look at the contenders over the coming months. Like Tristan I want to say Lake Geneva take it up this spring from Group placegetter to Group winner.