What a long and agonising season this has been for Raiders fans.
Time and again in 2015 the Canberra Raiders found a way to lose a close game. Seven times the Raiders found themselves on the wrong end of a game decided by less than a try – including the Bulldogs game which was technically seven points but only after a last second try from Moses Mbye after a botched Raiders short kick off.
Overall their record in games decided by less than a try was one win and seven losses. They also had a pair of twelve-point losses to the Warriors and Broncos that were closer than the final score indicated.
In the words of Maxwell Smart, they missed it by that much.
To be clear though it wasn’t simply a comical series of misfortunes a la Get Smart that cost the Raiders their season. The team deserved to lose pretty much every one of those close games as they made a veritable art form of dropping balls, throwing offloads to no one and giving away truly idiotic penalties.
The team’s wastefulness was all the worse having come in a year in which they got breakout seasons from much ballyhooed club juniors like Shannon Boyd, Paul Vaughan and Jack Wighton, while incorporating a pair of first-rate Super League imports in Josh Hodgson and the halfback assassin Sia Soliola
And then there was Blake Austin who went from handy utility at the Tigers to unfathomable Origin snub in a matter of six months in Canberra and electrified games up and down the length of the season to be universally acclaimed as the best new recruit in the league in 2015.
In the end though the team’s profligacy came back to haunt them as they exit the competition earlier than they should have and face yet another offseason of lamenting what could have been.
Season highlight
After a typical lacklustre start to the season yielding only an opening-weekend win from the first four rounds, the Raiders leapt to action with a remarkable four wins in five games between Rounds 5 and 9. The streak included exhilarating come from behind wins over the Wests Tigers and Rabbitohs and was topped off with a colossal 56-16 win at home against the woeful Titans.
In particular though the victory over the defending premiers which came in a rare free-to-air game that the Rabbitohs had moved to Cairns, gave coach Ricky Stuart the opportunity to take a few shots at a variety of targets for a perceived lack of respect shown to the club.
Season lowlight
All of the close losses were awful – take it from someone who was at most of them – but a special mention goes to the loss to the Tigers on an icy cold Canberra evening in Round 22.
With their season on the line the Raiders should have come out strongly against a bottom-of-the-table team, even one that was coming off an impressive win over the Storm. Instead the team played lifeless, error-ridden football as they gifted the Tigers a meaningless victory.
That the team was then formally eliminated the following week against the Sea Eagles via a try that should have been disallowed only added a miserable coda to the Raiders season.
Best player: Josh Hodgson
As brilliant as Blake Austin was for the Raiders the most valuable player was English hooker Josh Hodgson. While Kurt Baptiste, the “funny little bloke with the beard” as Matthew Johns referred to him was a steady option off the bench, the difference in the Raiders’ play with Hodgson off the field was palpable.
Not since Simon Woolford was at his best in the early 2000s have the Raiders had such an influential player at dummy half. A sharp passer who leads his forwards onto the ball, Hodgson also ran the ball effectively making 50 metres a game despite averaging less than 60 minutes.
In another plus Hodgson also boasts a smart kicking game, when he isn’t kicking on the second or third tackle, accounting for four 40/20 kicks, the most by a hooker.
The good news for Raiders fans as the league moves to eight interchanges in 2016 is that in recent weeks Hodgson has progressed to playing 80 minutes a game, a capability which will be crucial for hookers under the new rules.
Finally it is well documented that the Raiders have long struggled to recruit and retain quality players but as a native of Hull, Hodgson is one of a select few international quality players for whom the Canberra weather is a decided upgrade.
Roster management
If the Raiders big problem this year was lack of composure in tight games then they have at least addressed the problem in recruitment, with established half Aidan Sezer joining from the Titans. Sezer, who has suffered through two injury-blighted seasons, is an efficient game manager with an elite kicking game who should complement Austin in the halves.
Additionally the club has again turned to Super League to recruit Elliot Whitehead, a try scoring backrower who debuted for England during the 2014 Four Nations.
On the other side of the ledger the traditional Ricky Stuart cull continues with David Shillington, Dane Tilse, Mitch Cornish, Mark Nicholls and Glen Buttriss all going or gone. Of those only Shillington may be missed, although after his hilariously awful play the last two weeks Raiders fans may be happy enough to see even him go.
Prognosis
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Raiders might actually be building something.
After clearing out an older generation of front rowers the forward pack will now be led by the Sons of Sieffert Paul Vaughan and Shannon Boyd.
A photo posted by Canberra Raiders (@raiderscanberra) on
However beyond those two the club has only one recognised front rower, Frank-Paul Nuusuala, on the roster for 2016. Earlier in the year there were strong rumours that James Tamou might be lured to Canberra for family reasons however that story seems to have dried up. Whether Tamou is still a possibility or not the club will likely need to make some moves to strengthen the front row.
While the front row looks thin pending further recruitment the club is stacked in the back row with Jarrad Kennedy, recent debutant Mitch Barnett and Whitehead all expected to compete with the established group of Soliola, Papalii and Fensom.
Dig deeper and the club also has three players in Luke Bateman, Patrick Mago and Tevita Pangai Jr who have been mainstays in the back row for junior representative teams in recent years (though Pangai actually projects as a middle unit player in first grade and has played there in NSW Cup).
The club also has some depth in the backline with one of Jordan Rapana, Edrick Lee and Joey Leilua likely to miss out on a week to week basis. Even more encouragingly Jack Wighton seems to have finally adjusted to fullback, and has been the club’s best player in recent weeks.
So it is fair to say that the club has largely rebuilt the roster after injuries (Terry Campese, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs) and malfeasance (Todd Carney, Blake Ferguson and Josh Dugan) routinely robbed the team of key players for several years under David Furner.
The big question though will be whether the heart breaking losses in 2015 do in fact become lessons learned as everyone in the club is keen to proclaim they will be?
Can the team turn those agonising, often self-destructive losses into teaching moments and make the leap from mediocrity towards contention?
Predicted finish: fringe of the eight
Andy Sharpe
Roar Guru
Really happy that Josh Hodgson has settled in so well at Canberra and has had a top quality season - he was a stand out player for Hull KR and we were gutted when he left. I just hope that his form in the NRL get's him a place in the England squad for the New Zealand Series at the end of the year - I think Hodgson deserves to back up James Roby rather that Warrington's Daryl Clark who has had a disappointing year on the back of winning the Man of Steel in 2014.
Niall
Guest
Rather Klemmer, Boyd and Vaughan over the big teddy bear
The Barry
Roar Guru
I thought the couple if times I saw Nicholls that he was pretty good. A big lump of a lad. A front row rotation of Boyd, Vaughan and Nicholls would be pretty bruisking. It will be interesting to see if Boyd and Vaughan kick on. I think they both have rep forward potential. Klemmer, Vaughan, Boyd for the blues in about 2-3 years time would look pretty good...
The Barry
Roar Guru
Thanks fellas...good to get the scoop. I thought he looked great in 2014 although he had a few mistakes in him but I thought he'd be a regular this year. Interesting perspective Lachlan. I was discussing on the roar what would be a pass mark for Ricky Stuart. I can't remember who it was with but they said for every coach the pass mark was the 8. My opinion was that an improved season, more consistency and on the fringe of the 8 would be a pass mark.
Robert Of Bruce
Guest
Personally i think its a positive that they have missed the finals for a 3rd year in a row, the longest period since 1986. They needed to rebuild slowly as opposed to having there usual sporadic runs of form that land them just inside the 8 in a good season. The re-build is being crafted intuitively and with patience, if they do hit form i think it will last and they will truly be a competitive and intimidating side for the first time in a long time. Also bring back the old patch.
up in the north
Guest
I'm happy for Big Jimmy if he goes to you blokes, he's given the Cowbies good service through a pretty crap neck injury run of luck. But we've got some pretty special talent coming through and it would be shrewd to offload him too. You've probably got better info than me so I guess we'll wait and see.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Yeah I tend to agree. Williams will have to bide his time in Mounties but at the very least he's going to get another first grade offer either from the Raiders or more likely elsewhere in 2017. That is a lot more than I expected when the Dragons shipped him off to Super League after only a handful of games. He's done a wonderful job of rehabbing his value. The Tamou rumour was stepped on by all parties earlier this year but I still have a slim hope that a deal for next year has been done but that everyone has agreed to keep mum until after the Cowboys season. I would imagine that after the trials and tribulations that team has experienced over the last few years no one wants to be seen as contributing to upsetting their apple cart.
Ron Jeremy
Guest
Yep, great article Lachlan and I agree with you Don (Furner ... ?). As a lifelong fan of the Green Machine, I have seriously come to despair about their future and I agree that soon if not now "serious questions need to be asked about the future of the club and whether it will ever become a premiership force again". It's a deeper issue the Sydney-centric NRL does not appear to be interested in. Unless the salary cap changes further to enable "outlier" clubs like Canberra, the Gold Coast, Newcastle, and to some extent Penrith, to become permanently more competitive, RL and the Raiders will slowly die in Canberra (and in those other cities as mentioned). Imagine for a moment how wonderful the Raiders would've been this year if they'd kept Milford given his form and potential with Brisbane? Unless the Raiders improve, I can see only 2 possible outcomes: a gradual but complete extinction (in which case AFL will take over straight away probably by relocating a Melbourne team); or long term, permanent underachievement (possibly preceding extinction), just like North Sydney who only won 2 premierships in 90 odd years in the competition and really never seriously challenged for the title between the 1940s and mid 1990s. Is that what the NRL want? Is it really in the best interests of the game for the Roosters to have such a mortgage on top line players once they enter the market? Raiders crowds are already the lowest average in the NRL and to be honest I'm surprised they even average 10K these days given their poor performance over 20 years and their depressing future. Ron.
up in the north
Guest
Geez you Raiders fans have heaps of positives to take out of 2015. Look at how lousy things were at the end of last year. Ricky has done a good job, (never thought I'd say that again) and if you're down because of the home losses you can bet that he will remind the players they have a duty to their own fans to perform better at home. Was really watching Hodkinson against Granville the other week and I thought he taught Jakey a few lessons out of dummy half, he's good. I was very impressed. Nah you blokes are building towards some good things.
zim
Guest
6. Austin 7. Sezer There is no way they are moving Austin considering how well he has played at 6. Sezer is going to start. You don't spend that money on someone for them to sit on the bench or play reserves. Williams will be 7 for Mounties and will play a number of 1st grade games during the year because of injuries to either Sezer (likely) or Austin.
zim
Guest
Brenko started the year overweight and out of form. He hasn't been injured that much but it's taken a long time for his form to come back up. His last 2 weeks in reserve grade have been very good on the wing, but he is definitely more suited to centre. There's something special there but there seems to be a lack of work ethic. He only turns 20 this year and will likely spend a lot more time in reserves than NYC next year. If he keeps his head down there is no reason why he won't pop up in 1st grade at some stage in 2016.
Don
Guest
Great article Lachlan. I would have used a different set of adjectives to describe the continual close losses though, but I doubt the article would have met editorial standards. Losing 9 home games (so far) in a season of football is absolutely unacceptable and there are no excuses for dishing that up to us long suffering season ticket holders. Even in seasons like 2005 and 2007 where the Raiders narrowly avoided the spoon they managed to win at least half of their home games. The team should not even think about playing finals football until it can rectify these appalling performances on home soil. Next year is a crucial year. We have now missed the finals three years in a row and if that continues then I think serious questions need to be asked about the future of the club and whether it will ever become a premiership force again.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
I think many Raiders supporters are still getting over the disappointment of losing so mnay close games - particularly at home. The narrow loss to Manly was the final straw. But to be disappointed at losing a game that none of the pundits gave them a chance of winning says a lot. The Raiders should have won that game. And 3 or 4 others as well. Just hope it has galvinised the side to do better next season rather than kicking cans over what could have been. So many plusses for the season given how low the side had sunk in 2013 and 2014. The recruitment of Hodgson, Austin, Soliola, Williams and Waqa have been huge positives. Leilua could also contribute given time and I'm really loking forward to seeing how Sezer and Whitehead perform next season. There are a number of younger players who could contribute. Was very impressed with Mitch Barnett when he was given the chance and Bateman, Mogo and Tevita Pangai Jnr will be competing for spots in the next couple of seasons. Not sure about Brenko Lee. From all reports he has attitude problems but hope to be proven wrong. He's a big strong unit and obviously has talent. I'm hoping Sisa Waqa stays - he brings a lot to the team. And really pleasing to see Jack Wighton develop as a full back in the past few weeks. The only question mark appears to be depth in the forwards with Shillington going and rumours that Mark Nicholls is going to the Storm. I feel sorry for Nicholls. He did well earlier in the season and would have done a much better job than Shillington has in the past few weeks. Hopefully Ricky Stuart has some prop recruits lined up to help Vaughan, Boyd and FPN next season.
Niall
Guest
Next year is going to be so interesting for Canberra. With Sezer, Austin and Williams (Just denied a release), what will the halves combination look like? Sisa Waqa apparently wants out? How will Elliot Whitehead go in the NRL? He's a finesse forward, not a workhorse. Rumours that Tamou will end up down there? I liked the look of Bateman in first grade when he was given a run.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
So Brenko Lee has actually fallen out of favour. Has played most of the years back in 20s though recently has been playing NSW Cup. He even asked for a mid-season release to join the Bulldogs. There is a suggestion around the traps that he perhaps became a little too impressed with himself. He's also a pretty awful defender even at NYC level. Its funny if you had asked Raiders fans at the end of last year that being alive for the eight with five rounds remaining and likely to finish 10th or 11th I think most would have seen that as excellent progress after last year. However after all the close losses, especially in front of the home fans, it seems like a wasted season.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I think this was a great season for the Raiders. A lot of players have emerged this year. They've also been one if the most entertaining sides to watch. I assume Brenko Lee has been injured this year? He looked very promising in 2014 but I haven't sighted him this year. They have the core of a very good side. What looked like 'bits and pieces' recruitment has cone together very well. If their signings for next year do as well they'll be strong. Sezer and Austin had the potential to be a brilliant combination. On paper they compliment one another so well. Add Hodgson and Wighton and that is a top quality spine, strong in all four positions. 'Hodgson is one of a select few international quality players for whom the Canberra weather is a decided upgrade' is an early contender for line of the day...