Round 21 is upon us and with finals drawing nearer and nearer we’re at a point in the season now where just about every result matters.
Hawthorn face Port Adelaide on Friday night in a match-up that is sure to give Port fans some woe, not so much because they’ll probably lose, but because it will remind me them of last year’s prelim and how much they’ve struggled since.
Then on Sunday a number of finals hopefuls face lower-ranked challengers – Richmond against Collingwood, Sydney against the Giants, Geelong against St Kilda, and Adelaide against Brisbane. Reasonably they should all win, but if one or more slips up, the impact on the final eight could be huge.
Gold Coast also meet Essendon on Saturday, in what will be Matthew Egan’s first game as the interim coach of the Bombers.
Sunday kicks off with a big meeting between North Melbourne and Fremantle at Etihad Stadium, followed by possibly the biggest snoozer of the year between Melbourne and Carlton.
The best is saved for last, with West Coast and the Western Bulldogs to meet in the final fixture of the week.
The game of the round
For the third week running the West Coast Eagles feature in my game of the round – what can I say, they just keep having exciting match-ups, no doubt due to the fact that they play an exciting brand of footy.
However if there’s a team that can match them in the AFL for sheer excitement factor at the moment it’s the Western Bulldogs.
Not only is this going to be a great game because it’s played between two teams with very appealing game styles, but also because there is just so very much riding on the final result.
For West Coast a win here will go a long way towards locking in a top-two finish and therefore a home qualifying final, with fixtures against Adelaide and St Kilda in the two remaining rounds. A loss would put them at serious risk of losing second place to Hawthorn.
For the Bulldogs, a win will keep them that little bit ahead of Sydney as they race for an unlikely top four finish.
The Swans have an easy run home and should win all their remaining games, so the Dogs need to keep winning – and maintain their percentage advantage – if they want to qualify for the double chance.
Lose and they can kiss their top four hopes goodbye.
So who will win it? I’m tipping the Eagles and probably by a fairly comfortable margin – they’re regaining Nic Naitanui and Mark LeCras this week while the Bulldogs will be missing important players Matthew Boyd and Liam Picken.
Those changes, along with a home ground advantage, should see the Eagles get the win.
The fizzer
Did I really call Brisbane v Carlton the most unappealing match of the season last week? Well we have a new contender this week and surprise surprise it once again includes the now bottom-of-the-ladder Carlton, this week going head to head with Melbourne.
There’s really only two points of interest to this game. I’ll give you the boring one first – if Carlton win they’ll drag themselves off the bottom of the ladder and Brisbane will sink back down into last. I know, thrilling right? But it could have a major impact on November’s AFL Draft.
The other is a bit more exciting – the battle of the young guns, Melbourne’s Jesse Hogan v Carlton’s Patrick Cripps. Of course, these two won’t be lining up on each other, but they are locked in a tight battle at the moment to be named this year’s Rising Star.
The clear standouts of this year’s Rising Star crop, the Cripps v Hogan debate is one you will no doubt hear chucked around a lot in the lead up before the award is announced – and then you will hear no end of bickering based on the final result.
While there’s no doubt in my mind that Cripps has a future as an elite midfielder – possibly one of the very best in the game – there’s just no going past Jesse Hogan for me. We see young midfielders flourish on a regular basis, but the kind of season Hogan is having as a debuting key forward, well, it’s the stuff of legend.
At any rate, hopefully the two young stars can liven up this game a bit, because otherwise it’ll be a total snoozefest. Melbourne to win it but don’t expect it to be pretty.
The big IN
St Kilda’s Jason Holmes might not be a big inclusion as far as his impact on the St Kilda team, the AFL season, the finals race or anything like that, but to see the American import make his AFL debut is kind of a big moment.
Plus, if we’re going to talk literally big inclusions, the 203cm 104kg ruckman certainly deserves the title.
At a time while former NRL player Jarryd Hayne is over in the US having a run at become an NFL player, it’s kind of ironic that Holmes will become the first born-and-raised American to play a game of AFL.
Signed by the Saints as an international recruit in 2013, Holmes has spent the last two years developing as a ruckman in the VFL, and with Billy Longer missing this week through a shoulder injury, he’s gotten the call up to make his debut.
He might stink it up and never play again, he might become elite and be remembered like fellow international ruckmen Jim Stynes and Mike Pyke. One way or the other, it’ll be interesting to watch and find out.
Shane Edwards, Adam Treloar, Stephen Coniglio, Michael Hurley, Josh Green, Tom Lonergan, Luke McPharlin, Zac Dawson, Mark LeCras, and Nic Naitanui are some of the other important inclusions this week.
The big OUT
Lachie Henderson is out, out for good as far as Carlton is concerned at least. Apparently three weeks longer was just too much for him to persevere, he told the Blues this week that he wants a trade at the end of the season and they told him to pack his bags.
What do you make of it? I’m not sure, myself. On the surface it seems a bit reprehensible. I mean, I know it can’t be too much fun to play for Carlton at the moment – as Henderson has made clear with his form all year – but quitting on the club before the season is out is still a bit rude.
That said, there may be more going on than what we see on the surface of it. Think back to last week when Michael Jamison refused to shake Mitch Robinson’s hand – it’s a pretty clear indication that there’s some serious issues among the Blues playing group at the moment.
Henderson says he wants a trade so he can be happy and, hopefully, a little successful. And jeez, isn’t that what we all want? Good luck to him.
Jackson Trengove, Devon Smith, Phil Davis, Tom Mitchell, Luke Parker, Charlie Dixon, Daniel Rich, Sean Dempster, David Armitage, Jared Rivers, Mathew Stokes, James Kelly, Jack Ziebell, Matthew Pavlich, Will Schofield, Chris Masten, Matthew Boyd and Liam Picken are some of the other notable outs for Round 21.
Milestones
Paul Roos – 600 games player/coach
Patrick Dangerfield – 150 games
Alan Toovey – 150 games
Jack Darling – 100 games
Will Hoskin-Elliott – 50 games
Stat of the week
Ten – that’s the number of current AFL players who’ve played at least one game for three or more AFL teams, a club Lachie Henderson will join next year assuming he does move clubs and does play at least one game for his new side. Here’s the current ten and who they’ve played for.
Kyle Cheney – Melbourne, Hawthorn, Adelaide
Andrejs Everitt – Bulldogs, Sydney, Carlton
Cameron Wood – Brisbane, Collingwood, Carlton
Tony Armstrong – Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood
Zac Dawson – Hawthorn, St Kilda, Fremantle
Mitch Clark – Brisbane, Melbourne, Geelong
Shane Mumford – Geelong, Sydney, GWS
Matthew Spangher – West Coast, Sydney, Hawthorn
Jeremy Laidler – Geelong, Carlton, Sydney
Andrew Raines – Richmond, Brisbane, Gold Coast
Josh
Expert
I remember in 2012 North were coming off a long winning streak, about to play Freo at Etihad, Pav was a late out, and my mates and I all said, well, I think North's got it won thanks to that. What followed was three of the most torturous hours of my life! While Pav out certainly limits Freo's options to goal a bit, it won't make a big difference if North don't hold their own in the midfield battle. If Fremantle dominate through the mids - as they often have against North - they'll find a way to kick the goals. Especially if Fyfe is tried forward.
Josh
Expert
Cheers Dylan! It's an interesting proposition really - as a North fan I've seen us lose to Fremantle enough times that I don't really have high hopes for it, we tend to be at our best when we get to play our fast-paced, attacking game and we really struggle when opposition teams bring the pressure and choke up that fast ball movement. That kind of play is one of Freo's biggest strengths, so I reckon they are likely to win it if they're on their game. The thing that could work in North's favour is that the game is at Etihad rather than over in WA, it's the first time we've gotten to play them there for a few years now and our record against them there is pretty decent (that's less true if you're just looking at them under Ross Lyon though). It'll be interesting to see how we make use of Ben Jacobs - he's done a great job recently tagging and I reckon I'd almost put him on David Mundy this week instead of Nat Fyfe. Not because Mundy is better than Fyfe, but probably because Jacobs stands a better chance of keeping Mundy quiet than he does Fyfe. Interesting to hear also that Lyon will consider playing Fyfe forward to cover the loss of Pavlich. I'm stealing an idea from Ryan Buckland a bit when I say that could be a game-changer for Fremantle's premiership hopes. I hope he tries it, I want to see what happens. In short - Head says Freo, heart says North. But then my heart always says North.
Dean N
Guest
Without the Pav I think North get the job done.
DylanC
Roar Rookie
Great article Josh. What do you make of the North v Freo game? I feel it’s a real 50/50. It will be interesting to see how Freo respond from last week’s derby. Its almost become a must win game for them now. Hopefully North are ‘on’ this week though and can take it right up to them. Our first half’s, in particular second quarters, have been dreadful this year. We’ll need to produce a four quarter effort (which seems to allude us) to have any chance of taking home the 4 points.