Whoops, the 2015 NRL premiership race is wide open again

By Ryan O'Connell / Expert

A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece that opined that the 2015 NRL premiership race had three contenders, and plenty of pretenders.

I nominated the Sydney Roosters, North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs as the three teams that would win this year’s competition, based upon the first two team’s impressive form, and the latter team’s mantle of being the defending premiers.

Silly, silly me.

What I failed to include in the piece was the caveat that I was not factoring in any injuries to key players of those teams. I should have known better, and deserve any criticism that comes my way, but considering it’s not something one can predict I’ll give myself a little latitude.

Which is extremely convenient because after the round’s action the premiership race is now wide open, due to a number of serious injuries to star players from those three teams.

On Friday night, the Bunnies’ best player, Greg Inglis, limped off the field with a knee injury. The next day, the Cowboys’ Michael Morgan and James Tamou were both taken from the field on stretchers and transported to hospital with neck and ankle injuries, respectively. Then on Saturday night, the Roosters suffered potentially season-ending injuries to both Mitchell Pearce (hamstring) and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (knee).

Though injuries are a part of sport, to see three of the best teams lose some of their best players was more than a little depressing. As fans of the game – first and foremost – we always want to see the best players playing, especially come finals time.

Though the full extent of all these injuries isn’t known at the time of writing, it’s been confirmed that Inglis will definitely miss at least Thursday night’s clash with the Broncos after he had minor surgery on his knee Monday afternoon.

Sadly for the Roosters, Waerea-Hargreaves is confirmed to be out for the rest of the season, while Pearce is estimated to miss at least a month of action.

Meanwhile, for the Cowboys, Tamou has been cleared of any serious damage to his neck, but there is no word on if he will miss any time. The news on Morgan isn’t as positive, with fears he may be done for the year.

Though all three teams have depth, and probably believe they can cover the injuries if absolutely needed, I’m not nearly as confident.

Souths can’t win the competition without Inglis and need him back on deck as soon as possible. However, it’s clear he won’t be 100 per cent healthy any time soon either, which increases the concerns about a team that already had form issues.

Morgan is arguably North Queensland’s second most important player, and if he were to be ruled out for the rest of the season the Cowboys would suddenly drop dramatically in favouritism.

The Roosters can probably do the best job of replacing their lost stars, but one can’t deny that the Chooks’ mission to win the premiership would get exponentially harder.

So where does that leave the competition?

Brisbane remains tied at the top of the ladder with the Roosters and Cowboys and have been consistently good all year long. However, Saturday night was a ‘statement game’ for the Broncos: a chance to come to Sydney, knock-off the Roosters, and show everyone that they’re serious premiership contenders this season.

Sadly, despite the injuries to Pearce and Waerea-Hargreaves, along with plenty of opportunities to win the game, Brisbane couldn’t get it done. The Roosters deserved to win the match, but Wayne Bennett’s men still had their chances and just couldn’t capitalise.

It’s foolish to eliminate the Broncos based on just one game, so I’m not, especially when it was an entertaining and brilliant performance from both teams, but the fact remains that questions about Brisbane in big games against good teams are still somewhat unanswered.

Thursday night’s encounter against the Rabbitohs now takes on greater importance for Brisbane, as they need a confidence-builder heading into the finals.

Cronulla bounced back from a Melbourne Storm belting the week before, but how much credence should we put into a win against Wests? The Tigers are essentially the NRL’s Washington Generals at this point of the season. Google it if you don’t get the reference.

Despite last night’s loss, Melbourne are the NRL’s best kept secret, because you can get good betting value for a team that has premiership experience, still trots out superstars Cam Smith and Cooper Cronk surrounded with hard-working role players, and is coached by Craig Bellamy. I would never rule the Storm out – despite the minor detail that I did three weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs suddenly look dangerous in attack – the one area they looked horrible in all year long. With their dominating forward pack and the coaching nous of Des Hasler, the Dogs’ fans hopes are high again, and rightfully so.

The 2015 NRL premiership race? It be wide open, folks.

Which all just proves what an idiot I am for making outlandish statements on teams’ fortunes when there was still plenty of football to go in the season.

Lesson learnt.

The Crowd Says:

2015-08-26T11:14:08+00:00

Alex L

Roar Rookie


Well TB, I'm allowing for the possibility I'm remembering it as worse than it was..

2015-08-25T10:37:06+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


That's a 100%, ironclad almost guarantee...

2015-08-25T10:24:35+00:00

Alex L

Roar Rookie


Graham is at 7 GFs for 1 win, has a few challenge cup wins to his name too. The fact St Helens made five in a row is kind of freakish, especially considering their roster.

2015-08-25T10:23:17+00:00

big J

Guest


Cmon mate give the bloke a break, there is nothing wrong with his photo, it could be worse, I have seen some shockers in this website. Squidward and Jay C you both uses picutres of cartoon characters, atleast this blokes uses his real photo. Ryan great article but I agree with JAY C you need to give the dogs away, maybe try the bunnies

2015-08-25T10:15:28+00:00

Alex L

Roar Rookie


Do you have a stat for number of kicks that ended in 20m taps? I could almost guarantee that's way down.

2015-08-25T09:22:56+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


No I wasn't Ryan - thanks for the benefit of the doubt! I'm not sure theres much of a difference though. The dogs are seventh on the ladder but fifth in points scored. Of the teams in contention for the top 8 they are fourth. The teams ranked above them are running 1,2 and 3. Very few of their tries have come from kicks. They're fourth overall for metres gained, sixth for offloads (3rd for teams still in contention), 4th for least errors. They have the second leading try scorer. These are good attacking stats. They've had a couple of flat spots through the season that have coincided with players not being available - but what team doesn't? But overall their attack has been functioning well this year.

AUTHOR

2015-08-25T08:33:11+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


I don't think you're talking about me when you say 'lazy', but on the off chance you are, I didn't say the Dogs struggled to score points, I said they've looked horrible in attack.

2015-08-25T07:40:32+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


They're still both rep players...do JWH and Pearce have blinders every week.

2015-08-25T07:31:03+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


In their first 11 games of the season the dogs scored 223 points at an average of 21.18. The second half of the season they've scored 253 at 23 per game. Overall they've averaged 21.64 points per game. After 4 games they averaged 22.75 points After 8 games 20.75 After 12 - 21.0 After 16 - 19.88 After 20 - 20.4 After 22 - 21.64 Points haven't been as hard to come by for the dogs as many would believe. It's actually lazy commentary based on 2014 to suggest so. They haven't turned it on recently either. The times they've struggled for points were immediately following round 4 (when they had several players injured and suspended) and between rounds 13-16 when they were missing 5 origin players.

2015-08-25T07:09:56+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


I'm not saying that the dogs 5th tackle plays have been awesome all year - I don't think they've improved markedly over the past couple of weeks. I don't have the stats to hand but they're still not scoring many tries off kicks nor do they force many repeat sets.

2015-08-25T06:54:03+00:00

Alex L

Roar Rookie


TB, I think you need to go back and watch the Bulldogs vs Dragons games where Hodkinson and Mbye seemed intent on trying to choke Eto Nabuli with footballs. The halves have improved a lot, not just on the 5th either, especially Hodkinson, who people seemed to forget was coming back from knee surgery.

2015-08-25T06:18:36+00:00

Dean - Surry Hills

Guest


Yep - Benji to relive his 2005 form. Cinderella Golf Story.

AUTHOR

2015-08-25T06:05:48+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


I somewhat agree on your first point, but will have to disagree on the second. The Dogs have been much better of late (on the fifth tackle), in my opinion.

AUTHOR

2015-08-25T06:02:24+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


You were actually reading the piece, then saw me?! That is super freaky. Good to see you too, mate.

2015-08-25T05:51:16+00:00

Joe

Roar Rookie


Yes, forgot about Lichaa, that's a big loss for sure. That said the new 9 for Dogs seems to be a pretty decent player going by his game against the Rabbits. Tolman I would think is well covered as the dogs have very good front row depth. Williams I would put I the same category as Reynolds....rocks and diamonds players and haven't really impacted the team.

2015-08-25T05:22:12+00:00

JOHNY BULLDOG

Roar Rookie


Love your confidence Bazz!

2015-08-25T04:56:53+00:00

JayBob

Guest


Ryan has been very critical of the Dogs all year if you read his articles. He never hides the fact he supports them, but he is objective at the same time. I'm a Dogs fan and sometimes I think "why are you laying the boot into the Dogs if you're a fan" but it's his job to be as impartial as he can be so I respect that. Point is, he is far from biased.

2015-08-25T04:34:01+00:00

jamesb

Guest


Dragons should do it easy from the bottom half of the eight then.

2015-08-25T04:02:55+00:00

Big Dog

Guest


Last game for Toovey should see a competitive Manly, but after last weekends results anything is on the cards -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.

2015-08-25T03:50:41+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Sharks have Parra and Manly. They should reasonably expect four points from that - but you never know. Souths have Bronx and Roosters. Storm have Cowboys and Broncos. I think the Sharks will finish 4th, Dogs 5th, Storm 6th, Rabbits 7th and Dragons 8th. But really any permutation is possible.

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