The first weekend of spring, and we’re greeted with quality racing in both Victoria and New South Wales as five Group 2 races between the two states are held.
It’s always a shame when we have races under the same conditions in each city, as we do with the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Moonee Valley) and the Chelmsford (Randwick), both Group 2 WFA races over 1600 emtres worth $250,000.
How you rank the importance of each is probably dependent on which side of the Murray you live. Being a born-and-bred Victorian, I’ll kick things off with the Melbourne race.
The Dato is a good horses race, with most winners making their presence felt throughout the spring, but this year’s edition sees only three or four legitimate winning chances.
Contributor has had the tomato sauce slapped on his odds, which is fair enough given his impressive first-up record (6: 5-0-0), record in this country (5: 4-0-0), and stunning autumn campaign where he was undefeated in taking out the Apollo, Chipping Norton, and Ranvet.
The horse had his first look at the Valley earlier in the week, and worked stylishly like he was a veteran at the track. He deserves his short quote.
The two most obvious dangers are The Cleaner and Mourinho, both Moonee Valley specialists that have a combined record at the track of 18: 9-3-2. Indeed, they ran the quinella in this race last year, and are coming off the quinella in the PB Lawrence Stakes three weeks ago.
Both are tough honest gallopers, and if there’s any chinks in the armour of the favourite, one of them will find it.
If there’s another chance in the race, it probably belongs to the horse than ran third in the PB Lawrence, Dibayani, who can easily find a couple of lengths improvement given the David Hayes and Tom Dabernig combination wasn’t tough in his training before his first-up run.
Selections
1. Contributor
2. The Cleaner
3. Mourinho
4. Dibayani
The McEwen Stakes is the other Group 2 on the Moonee Valley card, over 1000 metres, and also under WFA conditions.
Chautauqua is the prize horse in the race, proving himself one of Australia’s highest quality sprinters over the last 12 months, and is a hot, but easing, favourite in the early markets due to an air of vulnerability surrounding him.
He’s having his first start over the short-course of five furlongs, which may prove an issue for a horse that often either just gets there or just falls short over 1200 metres. It’s his first race at the Valley too, and his wide barrier is going to see him get right back to the tail. It’s a tricky assignment.
The record of Flamberge ties into that of Chautauqua, given there was nothing between them when both first-up last time, and they both beat Lord of the Sky into second place in their respective Group 1 victories in the autumn.
Kuro was a remarkably consistent three-year-old sprinter across three states, and also has Group 1 credentials. He’s drawn to get the run of the race from barrier two, and will look the winner at some stage.
Sistonic is the interesting runner after making an impact in only a few starts last summer, but is right in the deep end here. It Is Written and The Quarterback are always thereabouts, the former at his favourite track, the latter at his specialist distance.
It also pays to be wary of the three-year-olds in these early spring WFA races, and Furnaces and Headwater must be conceded chances.
Selections
1. Kuro
2. Flamberge
3. Furnaces
4. Chautauqua
At Randwick, the Chelmsford has attracted the usual bevy of Chris Waller runners, but there look to be only four winning chances in the race.
Three of them are second-up after running in the Warwick Stakes, which was won by the hardy mare Royal Descent, a well-deserved victory after knocking on the door so many times.
She had the run of the race first-up, but put them away impressively all the same. Her recent second-up runs were beaten a lip in this race last year, and an excellent second in a deep George Ryder in the autumn. A huge threat again.
Pornichet will likely take up the running unopposed here, despite it not being his preferred option, and should be able to dictate the race. He’s returned in good order, and will be hard to beat in this sort of grade, but it remains to be seen how high he can climb.
Kermadec was arguably the run of the race out of the Warwick Stakes, a closing fifth behind Royal Descent and Pornichet, but the wide barrier will make things tricky for Glen Boss. He probably can’t win if he goes right back, but going forward isn’t the horse’s natural racing pattern.
Hartnell produced a huge first-up run last campaign, coming from last to almost run down Contributor, and we know how strong that form proved to be through the Sydney autumn. I’m not sure he’ll be as wound up this time with the Melbourne Cup still over two months away.
Beaten Up looks the best of the rest.
Selections
1. Pornichet
2. Royal Descent
3. Kermadec
4. Hartnell
The Tramway is always a tough race to win, and often an even tougher race to pick. Most of the horses engaged are first-up, even though only two of the last nine Tramway winners have been resuming.
First Seal is the favourite, as usual, even if she doesn’t win enough to necessarily justify it. She’s been the punters-elect in her last four races, three of them odds-on, but with only one victory to her credit in that time.
Jumping from the widest barrier won’t make things easy, and she’s also coming off a minor hiccup after a foot abscess prevented her from resuming in the Warwick Stakes. She’s also taking on the older boys for the first time. There’s enough against her here to make her a risk at the price.
Lucia Valentina won the race last year, and knows how to impress first-up, but has her share of weight against the boys. Messene is a good horse, but hasn’t won for a while, and will enjoy dropping back to a SWP race after a year of racing at WFA.
Sweynesse is too good to ignore, and his first-up autumn run behind Hallowed Crown in the Hobartville would be enough to win this. If he’s forward enough, he can win.
Arabian Gold has changed hands from David Vandyke to Gai Waterhouse, and must be taken seriously despite not being a noted first-up performer previously.
Rudy looks the value runner of the race given his Doncaster run and second-up record. Strawberry Boy can provide nuisance value up the front, and might even go on with it if he gets a classic front-running ‘Pumper’ special. Keep an eye on second emergency Malice, if he gets a run.
Selections
1. Sweynesse
2. Rudy
3. Messene
4. First Seal
The other Group 2 on the day is the Furious Stakes, over 1200 metres for the three-year-old fillies, with a handy field assembled.
Speak Fondly looks the one to beat with the winning run under her belt, when she led all the way in the Silver Shadow in a six-horse field. Lake Geneva raced flat behind her when second up, and could easily improve off it.
There’s plenty of interest in some of the first-up runners, including Ottoman, English, Look to the Stars, Perignon and Calverite. Ottoman might be the best out-and-out sprinter of that lot, and could be too quick for these with a good trial under her belt.
Serene Majesty bolted in a mid-week maiden, and obviously has claims.
Selections
1. Ottoman
2. Speak Fondly
3. Lake Geneva
4. Serene Majesty
michael steel
Guest
Just write an article.
Razzar
Guest
it's somewhat will be fitter for Saturday's run.
Razzar
Guest
Nice run by Its Somewhat. Should be much better for that run.
Tomas Kelly
Roar Rookie
Yep, spot on Cam. Really hoping to see a clash between Contributer and Kermadec later in the Spring. Kermadec could have easily won 3 Group 1 races in the Autumn and has the potential to challenge the very best this campaign. Throw in Fawkner and the international raiders too.. can't wait!!
andrew
Guest
cam. this will be standard length from now. i have a preview i post elsewhere and have for years and have decided its quicker to just cut/paste it direct, than pick bits and pieces out and condense it along the way. its just a series of opinions which im happy to share. no compliments expected if they fare well. no criticisms if not.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Comprehensive as always andrew, and that could be your biggest one yet! I like the thinking about that Stokes horse in Adelaide, should be a nice starter for some multi's. Agree with you on Chautauqua getting to a price. It won't surprise me if runs out of straight, but it also won't surprise if he's only a length off them already when they straighten, and he cruises home by a length and a half.
andrew
Guest
Fri 10- cracking race to round out the weekday. But going with amiconi originale who has fitness edge on pretty talented horses and both his runs this prep from a long break have been superb, storming home each time in decent sat grade adl races where form has held up. MV (after one of the more discracefully rails biased tracks in a long time, hoping for better with rail back to true) 2 – tough race, but spirit of heaven can surely run a place at $2.80 (betstar) given her recent form in similar races, hopefully the 3kg claim can assist, as oliver has ridden her last 2 times and conceded lots of weight to rivals 3 – small spec on sugar rush here who hit line well 1st up on wet track and suited by rise in distance, ex Gerald ryan horse, who is well bred and at big odds worth a few coins 4 – another roughie with a hope is streets away, who is slowly building fitness and form after a long lay off for weir, but is a classy horse, has carried 60kgs at both last 2 runs this prep, but drops down in weight here considerably. Add that to his form, and extra fitness, and it bodes well. Good record at mile, winner at MV (over Philda – similar class to this), good value at $15 6 – fell swoop deserved fave down on limit weight for such a progressive and inform horse with oliver on board. If they overdo it up front, fash cash can swamp them at long odds now fitter and up to 1200m. 7 – pretty elementary race. Contributor wins. And the two valley speciailists run the placings in the cleaner and mourihno. I will be taking the exacta 4/3-5. You could be greedy and make it a trifecta, but the exacta will do me. 8 – fascinating race. Chataqua likely to drift and could get out to silly odds. Obviously the class horse and suited at WFA, and whilst super down straight, I don’t see any reason why he cant run well at MV with rail true and the camber in play. 1000m short of his best, but this race sets up with a hot tempo, some stamina at the end will be important in the final 200m uphill run to the line. If they give $2.50 on the day, it’s a bet. The other obvious is flamberge who flies fresh and draws for the perfect run just off the leaders, but being able to sit 1 or 2 off the rail. Just about certain flamberge will loom up to the leaders 4 wide on the bend and give a kick. Just a question of the run chataqua has and whether he is fit enough to mow him down. The other one is it is written who is a valley specialist, and le bonsir is a good example of a 1200m horse who is a MV specialist translating that to a 1000m win in a fast run race. Back chataqua to win, flamberge each way, it is written to place. Or mix them up in quins/exacata/duets as you fancy. 9 –was keen albonetti 2 weeks back here, but the bias just killed it. It was the best out wide swooper for the entire day, so I cant not be on, and $13 available with sportsbet (watch on turner bayou who hopefully runs a nice 6th to warm up for the 2400m race in 2 weeks) Provisional quad: 7,9,15/4/1,2,3/1,3,10,12,15 Syd 5 – craftiness. Shinn has top record on this horse. Pride dominates the race, but reckon he will out edge ball of muscle last bit, aided by 3kg advantage 8 – salders lake. Slow maturing type, not much luck in bris after a win with wide draws/poor rides. But expecting him to run well fresh over 1400m ADL 2 – cocoa doll. Debuts on sat for stoker/tourner at this time of year indicates it’s a good one. Won trial easily beating viceroy who then bolted in its maiden on wed and is sure to head to vic also. bred from a sprinting family. Its mum won on debut at caul for mick price and comes from a good sprinting family. 4 – allen goes to ride gingerboy who had no luck last time when 3rd rails behind a few $30 shots in a slow run race, but he is buiding up to a win this prep, and weir switches him to SA to snag it me thinks. Sun Tilla bell rings goes round at warraknebeal and after bankrolling me for a while with his last win at caul, I cant jump off. Confidence enhanced if track is dry. Divan goes round in last at ballarat and its pure guesswork first up for 12mth over 1600m. but gee – you would hope the talent he has shown takes him a long way in this. Really interesting horse to follow this prep. Source code also runs at ballarat (azkedellia resumes for new stable in same race and surely needs the run over 1000m) and is a good honest 1000m horse and can run well and then be on his way to the MV night 955m circuit.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Tomas. I'm with you on that point. Contributer is probably the best horse of all the runners in the two races, and could be the biggest spring player, but the Chelmsford bats deeper in terms of overall likely impact I'd say.
Tomas Kelly
Roar Rookie
Nice preview as always Cam. Difficult betting in the feature races as usual this early in the Spring. No doubt in my mind however as to the relative importance of the Chelmsford and Dato Tan, with the Chelmsford looking a much stronger race both in itself and as a guide for the remainder of the Spring.