If this is Peyton Manning’s last year, the recent stranglehold the Denver Broncos have exercised on the AFC West may be coming to an end.
This may be the last opportunity in a while that Denver has to assert its authority over its divisional rivals.
Before Manning arrived in 2012, the Broncos had only won the divisional title twice in the past 10 years. Once in 2005, under Jake Plummer, and once in 2011, under Tim Tebow.
When Manning retires, the Broncos may have to get used to mediocrity for a while unless they hit big in free agency.
Emmanuel Sanders earned his first Pro Bowl nod last season, and Demaryius Thomas continues to be one of the best wide receivers in the game. CJ Anderson also earned his first Pro Bowl selection last year, and could become a great running back for the Broncos if he performs well again this year.
Aqib Talib and Chris Harris both scored Pro Bowl honours last year at cornerback, and DeMarcus Ware continues to play his way into the Hall of Fame. Von Miller is one of the best at his position, and with rookie Shane Ray joining him, the Broncos defence looks to be a dominant force this season.
The most exciting component of the AFC West this season might not be who is coming first, but who is coming second. The San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs both finished 9-7 last season and missed out on the playoffs, but I suspect one of the two will make the leap this year.
After making the Wild Card game in 2013, the Chiefs missed out last year, but I predict that they’ll finish 10-6 – maybe even 11-5 if everything goes right – and get back into the post-season. Alex Smith is a good quarterback, and with a playoff berth he may make his second Pro Bowl in his career.
Despite Smith’s ability, the offence obviously flows through the backfield, courtesy of Jamaal Charles. One of the top running backs around, he’s made four straight Pro Bowls and three All-Pro teams. With Jeremy Maclin signing, a touchdown pass may actually be thrown to a wide receiver in 2015. Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and rookie Marcus Peters will be key for the defence.
The Chargers will take a step back this year in my opinion. If they do make the playoffs, expect them to lose to the Broncos in the divisional round like they did in 2013. Outside of Eric Weddle and maybe Brandon Flowers, their defence has little talent, but their offence is stacked.
They lost Ryan Mathews to the Philadelphia Eagles, but with young talent like Branden Oliver and Melvin Gordon, they should have a good ground attack. With new addition Jacoby Jones and old face (and future Hall of Famer) Antonio Gates, their receiving game should help them score points.
Finally, we come to the Oakland Raiders, the longtime laughingstock of the division. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2002, but with Jack Del Rio on as the new coach, he’s a slight improvement on recent hirings made by Reggie McKenzie. Last year’s horrendous 3-13 record was the worst since 2006 – since 2002, when they lost Super Bowl XXXVII, they have a record of 56-136.
Derek Carr had a good rookie season, despite what the record said. He’s definitely the franchise quarterback going forward for this team. With Amari Cooper as a deep threat downfield, Carr should improve on his rookie numbers and should hopefully notch a few more wins for his team.
Justin Tuck will hope to reignite his career after spending eight years with the Giants, and having Khalil Mack out there with him, the defensive ends will be explosive for Oakland. Mack had a breakout rookie year last season, and could become a dominant force in this league for years to come.
This year will be a test to see who can inherit the division title when the guard finally changes in the West.
Jason Pollock
Roar Guru
I can see that happening, it wouldn't surprise me - I still think Denver will sneak by with an 11-5 while KC finished 10-6 or something, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the scenario you described happening either. I agree on Manning - his recent play of late leads me to believe it will be his last season. He just can't perform like he used to be able to, and who can blame him? The guy's 39. I like your picks for the Chargers and the Raiders, they seem pretty accurate too.
bear54
KC (10-6) will take the AFC west just ahead of the Broncos (10-6). With Maclin at the Chiefs they finally have a very good player in all skill positions. It's hard to believe but P.Manning seems to be the only weak spot for Denver. He can't throw downfield and when he does they look like a slow flying duck. The old bloke will have Houston & Hali from KC, Tuck & Mack from Oakland and Butler & Ingram from the Chargers chasing him all year. The only saving grace is the best sack tandem are on his side in Ware & Miller. San Diego (8-8) can win a few but not enough and the Raiders (5-11) are another year away from a good record. If Oakland can keep their guys together they will eventually see the rewards.
Nate
Guest
Agree on the chiefs, they were a surprise packet for me last year and they are the only team I see challenging the Broncos for the division. I hope I'm wrong though.
Jason Pollock
Roar Guru
I can see them sneakily beating a few of those teams. If Jamaal Charles pounds the ground and Alex Smith does his best 'game manager' impression, I can see them getting some wins. Obviously it will be tough, but I think the Chiefs are one of those franchises just waiting to take the next step and get some playoff success.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
I can't see KC getting to 10 wins. They get PIT, DEN, DET and BUF at home, and all four will be tough. If they win 2 of those they need to go 500 on the road, which includes DEN, BAL, GB, MIN and HOU DEN get BAL and GB at home, as well as NE, toughest road games are PIT and DET
Jason Pollock
Roar Guru
Osweiler will get some snaps I think - IMO, he's the heir apparent to the Broncos' QB position when Manning retires, and with this being Peyton's last year (probably), the Broncos' coaches will look to give Osweiler some more snaps as they try to acclimate him to the offense and work him into the starting QB position from next season onwards. If Manning can run up the scores on teams, that will give Osweiler the chance to come in and get some more reps. I think once he eventually takes over the QB position for Denver, he'll be a good player for them and could lock down his starting role for a long time.
Nate
Guest
So if things get off to a bad start and Manning is clearly not his old self, any chance we see Osweiler getting some regular snaps this year? He looked a lot better this preseason and seems as though he will be able to step up when given the chance. A hell of a lot more mobile than Manning and his passes have had a lot of zip on them.
Jason Pollock
Roar Guru
Their defense is really underrated - people focus on players like Manning and Thomas, and rightfully so, but forget how good their defensive unit is. As you mentioned, their edge rushers have talent for days, and I'd look for the Broncos to lead the league in sacks this year. C.J. Anderson could become a great player for this team as I talked about, and really think he could make his second straight Pro Bowl in 2015 and sneak up on a lot of defenses. Manning is 39 now, and while he had a great year statistically last season, he just didn't look like the player we know at various times. He will never again reach the plateau of his 2013 achievements, and I would be surprised to see him throw for anymore than 4,500 yards and 35 TDs in 2015. If they start losing, the onus will fall on Peyton to get them back to winning - QBs often take a lot of heat when losing, but it will be mostly his fault if they start. All the other pieces are there - defense, running back, receiver - so it's up to Manning to keep the team winning now.
COMEon
Guest
No talent on SDs defense?? GET OUTTA HERE!
Nate
Guest
Broncos defense will be what gets them over the line this year if they win the AFC West. Von Miller, Demarcus Ware, and Shane Ray are going to be a beastly combo of edge rushers. Will also be interesting to see how Anderson and Hillman go in the zone blocking scheme. If those things hold up then I think the Broncos will be alright. The biggest problem I see is Manning being under centre. It's not like he can't play there. However, he gave up a few concerning sacks in the preseason where he just never looked like getting out of trouble from the moment the ball was snapped and just fell to the ground instead. If that becomes a pattern you may see teams blitzing a lot when he is under centre. I still think they have enough to win the division but it will be a lot closer than it has been in recent years.