As another finals series begins it is this September campaign that will define the current group of Fremantle Dockers players.
Will they finally break through and claim the club’s maiden flag? Or will they join those in recent history who have shown home-and-away promise only to ultimately fall short and have their premiership window shut?
A number of clubs have shown that they can develop a winning culture that stands up to the rigours of week-to-week football but it is September and particularly its pointy end that proves too difficult an obstacle to overcome.
After missing opportunities it can take years to rebuild before you are back competing at the top end of the ladder.
Looking back at these teams will no doubt reawaken the dreaded ‘what ifs’ for their supporter groups. Fremantle fans will be hoping they do not join this group and the players no doubt feel the pressure knowing their premiership window can shut and shut hard.
Collingwood 2002-2003
While not the best looking team on paper the Collingwood squad in 2002-03 possessed a determination and grit much like their coach Mick Malthouse and defied the odds to make consecutive grand finals.
A contentious Anthony Rocca point in 2002 still haunts many Magpie faithful and after the tears dried the 2003 season showed much promise. The Pies flew into the grand final having beaten Brisbane in the qualifying final but it all ended in heartbreak and back-to-back grand final defeats.
Aftermath: The Pies’ window shut and they finished 13th and 15th in the following two seasons.
Adelaide 2005-2006
A well drilled, well oiled machine, Neil Craig’s Crows of the mid 2000s showed they were capable of winning and winning consistently from March through to August. They finished top of the ladder in 2005 and second in 2006, but they came undone in the finals. The Crows won just two of five finals games, including the 2006 preliminary final at home.
Aftermath: The Crows held a place in the eight without firing a shot from 2007 to 2009 before falling down the ladder, culminating in a 14th placing in 2011.
Western Bulldogs 2008-2010
The Doggies had become preliminary specialists in the late 1990s after making consecutive prelims in 1997 and 1998. This group of the late 2000s went one better by making three consecutive preliminary finals.
The outcome was much the same, however. While a lack of key forwards hurt them in 2008 and 2009 the recruitment of Barry Hall was meant to take the Dogs to the next level. Instead they went out in the penultimate week to the Saints.
Aftermath: The door slammed hard with 10th, 15th, 15th and 14th place finishes over the subsequent four years.
St Kilda 2009-2010
Possibly the all-time team that came closest to a premiership without winning one were the Saints of 2009 and 2010. Top of the ladder and a record winning streak in 2009 as well as a top three finish in 2010 showed that the Saints of this era were one of the elite home-and-away sides.
This home-and-away form held strong throughout September. It also held right up until the very end of the last quarter of a grand final. Twice. That is until the final siren.
Aftermath: The Saints crashed swiftly to go from drawn grand finalist to wooden spoon winner inside four years.
Will the window shut on Fremantle? The Dockers have shown that they are more than capable during the home-and-away season but it is September and in particular this September that will define them as historic premiers or lead to their status as also-rans.
With Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands and Luke McPharlin just some of the upcoming retirees and queries on the ability of Ross Lyon to regenerate and grow a list, the Dockers will know that a golden opportunity faces them in the coming four weeks. They must strike before these factors take effect and influence their next premiership assault.
Where Fremantle land in the history books rests entirely at their feet this September.
13th Man
Guest
Good analysis Jax, agree with everything except you suggesting we won't beat WC in a GF, As a Freo fan I think our best chance in a GF is against WC, more because Derbies generally turn out to be 50/50 games and are reasonably close regardless of ladder position, also i take heart in our recent record against you. Whilst WC were brilliant last night I still believe we have a better chance in a GF against The Toasters than against Hawthorn. The right result occured last night for us and hopefully we take adavantage today. Obviously being a Freo fan i say we can beat WC and you being a WC fan would obviously say you will beat Freo. Fair enough. I look at our list and think that only 4 players are very close to retirement in Pav, LMac, Duff and Crowls. I think LMac will defintely retire this year whereas it will depend whether we win the premiership as to whether Pav goes round again. If we win, he retires, simple as that. McCarthy will end up a Docker, hopefully this year otherwise next year when his contract runs out. It mirrors the Boyd situation. The midfield is now perfect. Sandi and Mundy both have a few years left in them. Barlow, Fyfe, Neale and Hill are in their prime and we have some great up and coming players like Sheridan, Weller, Blakely and Langdon who will all be super in a few years. We also have the depth player like Mzungu, DeBoer, Clancee, Suban etc that can be used as trade bait or midfield depth. The big fact for me is that we have hardly seen Walters and Ballantyne playing together at all, they are dynamite together and hopefully we see that today. Alex Pearce looks pretty good in defence and can take LMac's spot in the side, obviously won't replace LMac but Johnno will still be there for a few more years as will Dawson (who despite all the negativity plays a role). Ibbo, Spurr and Sutcliffe will also be there. The reality is most of our current team will still be around for the next 3 years and I am confident that even despite Pav and LMac's impending retirements we will still be a force. I am hopeful we will win it this year for Pav and LMac but if we don't I am confident our window will remain open for a couple more seasons. Good point about all the WA boys. I think we will see a lot of them return home soon to either Freo or WC. Personally I am predicting pretty good things for WA footy in the next few years. Looking forward to a potential Derby GF, would be great for the state. Wouldn't want to be a supporter of the losing side though!
T.W. Cougan
Roar Rookie
The Dockers are definitely in better shape than the sides listed in the article if they were to fall short. The re-build on the go model that helped Geelong in 2011 (think Duncan, Christianson) Sydney in 2012 (Rohan, Jetta, Reid) and the Hawks post 2008 is the current popular model for top sides. So all the games they have gotten into Taberner, Crozier, Sheridan and Pearce, to name a few, will meant they won't free fall post the retirements of the greats. What they will find difficult is maintaining that spot in the top once these greats retire and that puts pressure on achieving the ultimate this year.
jax
Guest
We will know more about Freo in a few hours but my early call is that they will slice Sydney apart, the weather may lessen the margin. I'm expecting Freo to join WC in a derby GF. Any team that makes it to a GF can win it. If they are playing WC they won't win it but that's just my opinion. If Freo win it they will have most definitely earned it, and vice versa. Freo's list is in pretty good shape and with the advent of free agency and the clubs more liberal approach to trade requests a seemingly declining list can regenerate itself quite quickly, especially if you're a destination club. Fortunately for the WA teams we only have two teams to split all the come home players between so we are always a destination club. Just think of all the WA talent that is spread out across the league, bliss. Redden, McCartney, Bennel, O'Meara, Rich, Matera, Jetta, Martin, Swallow Bros, Hogan, Cripps etc. It's a never ending and very significant portion of the nations top talent and more than one of them has already announced their intention to come home. Two days before last years trade deadline GWS said there was zero chance of them trading Boyd for Griffen. Today GWS said there is zero chance of them trading McCartney to Freo. McCartney, Pearce, Pav, Walters, Ballas and Mayne looks like a potent forward combination for 2016. Freo won't drop off suddenly but a replacement for LMac would be handy.