I intended writing this piece prior to the first game of the Cup, thinking that the first round would not produce any upsets that would change the nature of this conversation.
More Rugby World Cup:
» SPIRO: Pumas good, the All Blacks very good
» LORD: No surprises in Wallabies team
» Wallabies team announcement
» Rugby World Cup Winners and Losers
» Rugby World Cup fixtures
» Rugby World Cup results
» Rugby World Cup highlights
» Rugby World Cup news and opinion
To our South African bretheren, please don’t take this as sticking the boot in, because it is most definitely not meant to be.
My question for the day is which coaches of the top teams will likely be looking for new jobs after the Rugby World Cup – and what would it take for them to save their positions?
First up is Steve Hansen who, like every AB captain before him, must go into this Cup feeling less than secure in his position. Like almost every unsuccessful ABs coach before him, he will be gone if he doesn’t take the trophy home.
In the case of Heyneke Meyer, the only conceivable way I can imagine him holding his position is if the Boks take the Cup home. Anything else will see him gone before even hitting South African soil.
Despite the fact that I still believe the Boks will top their pool, I also wonder if it is possible for Meyer to be gone before the end of the tournament?
I can’t find any rules to prevent it and despite the fact that it would be a crushing blow to the team, the knee-jerk reaction of SA rugby might just demand it.
If the Wallabies make the finals, then Michael Cheika will be safe simply because he hasn’t held the job long enough to be to blame for all of the Wallabies problems.
Quite frankly, I don’t expect his job to be at risk provided the Wallabies advance past the quarters.
The Irish will have huge expectations coming into this cup and yet even if they fail to live up to them, it is hard to know whether Hoe Schmidt will be gone or not.
Do you kick your coach to the kerb for not delivering on the high expectations that he is responsible for you having? I suspect not.
Schmidt will be safe with a semi spot and perhaps even a quarters spot.
The Poms will have huge expectations based on the fact that they are playing on home soil, given the fact that they grow an extra leg every time they run out onto Twickers.
For this reason, I think that Stuart Lancaster needs a finals appearance to secure his role. Although, if a suitable alternative cannot be found, he might still survive.
Warren Gatland is probably the safest among the top coaches simply because the Welsh will have overachieved simply to make it out of the pool of death.
If they do, Gatland is safe. If they don’t, he probably still is because he has been a really good coach for them over the years.
Its pretty hard to judge what Argentina’s expectations are going into this Cup.
They are a better side for having been in the Rugby Championship and can reasonably expect to make it to the quarters without much trouble.
However, at that point they will most likely run into Ireland or France. The Argies could upset either of these sides, but whether their fans can reasonably expect it to be the case I’m not sure.
I suspect Daniel Hourcade will not feel safe unless the Pumas progress into the semis, which they may well do.
With the French, I cannot even begin to imagine what their expectations of their team are. Nor can I really imagine what my own expectations of the French team are because they are so unpredictable as many All Blacks side has discovered over the years.
As for the Scots, with both Japan and Samoa in their pools and each looking dangerous, the Scots would do well to even reach the quarters.
At this point, they would run smack into the winner of the pool of death and be swallowed whole.
If the Scots make the quarters, Vern Cotter might be safe but otherwise I suspect he will be a gonner.
As for Japan, Eddie Jone’s position as coach is secure now regardless of how the Blossoms go. However, if they manage to make the quarters I suspect the Japanese will knight him, or whatever the Japanese equivalent is.
Samoa will be content to get into the quarters, especially with all the political rubbish going on in the background.
What do you think, Roarers? Who is safe and who already has their head on the chopping block?
Smiggle Jiggle
Roar Guru
Except if you are winning as coach. ie HANSEN
Bakkies
Guest
Jacques Brunel is moving on from Italy don't know who's taking over.
Bakkies
Guest
It's official Toulouse have a new head coach
UKKIWI
Guest
Hansen will be safe he has 89% (may be wrong) winning record over four years and is contracted until 2017. He will be safe
Jake
Guest
Hansen sure does. I doubt any coach will achieve 13 losses in a row while coaching a tier 1 nation.
Simoc
Guest
Every coach (apart from Jones ) should go. A 4 year tenure , the World Cup cycle, is long enough for any national coach.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Guest
Eddie Jones will have statues of his visage commissioned and crafted for installation in Halls of Fame. As will the 23 heroic 'Davids ' who felled the giants- what a fantastic game. SA did not play badly. This game will be replayed all over the world to tuition every kid from the Under 6's upwards, on the power of accuracy, urgency and courage. Any kid who has quaked in fright at the sight of 'the big kids' on the other team will be referred to this game and schooled on what rugby is about, really about. David has beaten Goliath before, and in many places, at many levels. But I don't believe that it has happened in such an extreme manner, in such a vivid and public display, and in such a high stakes international. Eddie may have finally done, as he set out to do in 2002 in an attempt to emulate McQueen, and that is to change the way the game is played.
Gilbert
Guest
I doubt Steve Hansen will lose his job if he doesn't win RWC. NZRU will retain him till 2017 with or without WC. His got the most illustrious coaching record. Meyer's fate has been dealt after Japan defeat. Taking boks to a new low. Cheika will stay on despite RWC outcome.
jaysper
Roar Guru
I know he has been signed beyond the World Cup, but contracts are terminated early all the time.
Machpants
Guest
Yeah and I think Lancaster is in till the next cup? So these guys are pretty secure as long as their teams don't do a total meltdown. Meyer needs to win the cup now I reckon otherwise he's toast ( and with what happened to white maybe even if he does win)
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Joe Schmidt and Vern Cotter have also had their contracts extended through to 2017. And Jones is stepping down as mentioned above. Gatland, amazingly, is signed through to 2019.
Machpants
Roar Guru
You've not done quite enough research, for the first time ever the NZ coach has been signed to beyond a RWC. Hansen is in for another 2 years. So unless the ABs fail to get out of their pool Hansen is staying. In 07 we kept some coaches that lost the quarters, and Hansen will still be in if it happens again. The '16 ABs will have lost a lot of experience (700 odd caps in 6 players, more than most starting 15s!) so Hansen has been signed on for continuity and experience, oh and a 90+% winning ratio since the last RWC.
Chinmay Hejmadi
Roar Guru
Is that news on Saint-André official? If so, I have my concerns about France. Saint-André's tenure has been an abject failure, and now they're replacing him with someone who I believe has become a sort of a dinosaur. Toulouse have failed to hit the heights in the Top 14 and in Europe for some time now, and I really doubt how Novès will revitalise French Rugby. What can't be doubted is that the man has won a hell of a lot in his career, and so he at least has the "know-how" to get France to challenge for trophies again. But France have fallen way behind the main Home Nations in the pecking order. Novès will have a huge job on his hands.
Chinmay Hejmadi
Roar Guru
I really doubt so many coaches are walking a tightrope. I feel Lancaster should be retained no matter what England's result will be, and I think they will retain him till the next World Cup. The same with Cotter. Argentina is a tough one, they showed promise in 2012 under Phelan but regressed terribly in 2013. But since Hourcade has taken over they've become better. I doubt they'll be able to beat Ireland, but I think that will still see Hourcade retained. If they somehow fail to qualify from Pool C, I guess Hourcade will resign. Gatland in fact may be under threat - he has aspirations towards coaching the Lions again, and some people look at him as a future New Zealand coach too. He may be gone one way or the other quite soon. Schmidt will be safe. Eddie Jones is stepping down, I heard. And Cheika is also a long term project, so he'll stay too. It's pretty clear about Hansen and Meyer, although I think the former may just have a chance of surviving even if they fail to win the Cup. Meyer is a dead man walking.
Ronan O'Sexton
Guest
Lancaster will be axed if England fail to get out of their group or lose in the quarter finals. Meyer probably has one foot out the door already. Phillipe Saint Andre is already going to be replaced by Guy Noves after the WC so it doesnt matter what he does he will be sent packing post WC. Schmidt will be retained even if Ireland exit in the quarters so as to give him a chance to win an unprecedented 3 six nations titles in a row. Vern Cotter may well be axed if Scotland lose to Japan or Samoa.