The Sydney Roosters may have finished the 2015 NRL season as minor premiers, but they have a tough trip on Friday night when they face the Brisbane Broncos at Suncorp for a place in the 2015 NRL grand final.
Let’s take a look at what the stats tell us about this match.
Broncos vs Roosters
7:45pm, Friday 25 September, Suncorp Stadium
The History
Overall: This will be the 42nd meeting of these two sides. The Broncos have won 25, the Roosters 16.
Finals: These two teams have met in finals games four times. Here’s a curious stat: on three of those four occasions (1998, 2000 and 2002) the winner has gone on to be the Premier (the 2000 game was the Grand Final).
The last time these two sides met in a final was in 2008 with the Broncos running out 24-16 winners at the SFS. The Broncos have four players still in their side from that game eight seasons ago: Justin Hodges, Darius Boyd, Sam Thaiday and Luke Parker. The Roosters have just one: Mitchell Pearce.
This is the first final between the two at this venue.
The last ten: The last ten between these sides have been split five a piece. However, the Roosters have won three of the last four.
At this Venue: This will be the ninth encounter between the sides at Lang Park/Suncorp Stadium. So far each side has won four each. The Broncos won in Round 6 this year 22-18.
Referees: Gerard Sutton has officiated in three clashes between these sides. The Roosters have won two. Sutton was the ref in both encounters between these sides this season and the results have been split.
Gavin Badger has officiated in two games between these sides, with each side winning one. He joined Sutton to officiate the Round 24 game at the SFS this season that the Roosters won 12-10.
Defence
Team Stats – average per game 2015
Both these sides have very good defence. In points conceded the Roosters rank first, the Broncos third.
Both feature a defensive stat that on the surface looks bad, but isn’t really.
The Broncos concede on average the second most metres of any side in 2015. Bad news right? Wrong. Wayne Bennett’s men do not rush up in defence. They value the structure of their defensive line over speed and it has paid dividends.
They have conceded the second least missed tackles of any side in 2015, as well as being third best for line breaks and tries conceded.
Their problem here is that the Roosters are the best side when it comes to not conceding line breaks and tries. They are, however, the very worst side for conceding errors.
They make an average of nearly 12 per match. The good news for the Roosters fans is that the great majority of these are made in the act of trying to break the line or score a try. Their errors are simply an indication of how audacious the Chooks are in attack.
Player Stats
As usual, opposing halves Ben Hunt and James Maloney will have their dodgy defence tested. You can also put money on Jim Maloney giving away a penalty or two – just don’t bet on any sin binnings unless you get odds over 100-1.
Anthony Milford is the most error prone player in the NRL this year. If the Broncos are to win, they’ll want a night of good handling from the Raiders junior.
Attack
Team Stats – average per game 2015
The Broncos can be very good with ball in hand but the Roosters have set the benchmark for attack in 2015. Their power running in the backs and the forwards is relentless.
Last week they made eight line breaks, 54 tackle breaks and scored six tries.
The Roosters attack is running into devastating form. And now Mitchell Pearce is back. Two weeks ago the Broncos managed just two tries at home against the far leakier defence of the Cowboys. If they are to beat the Roosters they’ll need at least four.
Player Stats
The Broncos chances of success in this match will lie heavily with the second oldest and the youngest players in their team. Justin Hodges and Anthony Milford must be at their attacking best in this match if their team is to breach the Roosters defence.
Further, Ben Hunt can’t be overawed by the occasion either. James Maloney showed last week that he is up to the challenge this finals series, and Mitchell Pearce has now returned to offer support.
Further, they have three of the games very best running footballers in Blake Ferguson, Michael Jennings and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Throw in Daniel Tupou and Shaun Kenny-Dowall and the Broncos are right up against it.
When they score and when they concede
The Broncos have been remarkably even with their scoring this season, Averaging around 25 per cent of their points in each of the 20 minute periods. The Roosters tend to favour scoring in the second 20 minute periods of each half.
This chart points to danger for the Broncos from the 20th minute through to the end of the first half. The Broncos concede a third of their points during that period and that is one of the Roosters most prolific scoring periods.
The Danger Men
As stated above, the Roosters back line is so dangerous it is ridiculous. RTS is arguably the most dangerous, but every single one is capable of leading the way.
For the Broncos Anthony Milford needs to be at his elusive best. If he can cause some havoc early then the Roosters might be put off their game in front of a very hostile Suncorp crowd. Darius Boyd must also play a big game.
Who is going to win and why
The Storm managed to choke the Roosters game but still only managed a two point win based on some lucky tries.
While the Broncos have been great this year I just can’t see them beating the Roosters Juggernaut, even on home soil. Hunt and Milford will really benefit from this experience but their season ends here.
Prediction: Roosters 13+
Broncos won
Guest
It helps to watch how a team actually plays than relying solely on stats
Broncos won
Guest
Ahh so close!
Joister
Guest
as a chooks supporter i'm nervous - especially with grandpa Wayne leading the strategy as brilliantly as he does my nervousness comes from the Bronco's being fresh and being able to play for a full 80 minutes - if they play a fast game the chooks will tire, if they play a grinding match they've got a good record at home from just staying in the match and staying in touch (assuming they don't get away to a cracker start) i read some of the comments of lying down ... i've more issue with how well Hodges can block players going for the high ball - he's made such an art form out of it that I think it has set the tone for so many other players to copy him reckon it'll be a cracker game and i hope the best team wins - and that they win without the help of any controversial tries or penalties awarded
gav
Guest
Couple of Points People forget about the last time these two teams met The score read 12-10 but in the 1st Half Ferguson dropped the ball over the line and a marginal forward pass was called back for the Roosters otherwise it was 20-0 at half time IMportantly Jack Reed (Brisbane Left Centre) didn't play in that match and Roosters had 3 line breaks all on the right edge of the field.
gav
Guest
Tim - in the close matches (incl finals) this year (6 points or less either way) P W L Broncos 7 4 3 Roosters 8 3 5
bigmick1
Guest
Forget "Luke"Parker. The only stat worth mentioning: Pearce is playing at Suncorp. We all know how that story ends. Milf is Renouf and Alf's love child.
G
Guest
Yep the Roosters make so many high tackles it's not funny; it's infuriating how they'll smack someone across the chops in a tackle then one of those cleanskins like JWH or Napa will yell at them to get up. Robinsons public attack on young Euan Aitken for getting up slowly after copping a high shot in the ANZAC game was disgraceful, but we've come to expect a high-horse whinge from Mr. Rules Committee after every loss.
Casper
Guest
Stats have been bloated by last weeks semi when the Bulldogs dropped their bundle after the dodgy Evans try. RTS had a shocker against Melbourne so he's got something to prove before he heads over the ditch, possibly into the abyss that affects Warriors imports. I reckon the roosters bench has a bit on the Broncos, but I've been waiting for the Broncs to drop their bundle all season and they've proved me wrong so I'm hoping they keep it up. Fair bit of quality across both squads, they really do look the best two left so bad luck one of them is going out early. If the Broncs win, I think the Cowboys can get them in the grand final but not confident of the storm repeating their recent win. If the roosters go through, you'd want the storm to get another crack at choking them out of the contest. So many twists to the tale left!
Aaron Fraser
Guest
Cordner has scored a try in his last three games against the Broncos.
Muzz
Guest
It should be a great game mate. 1 more sleep.
Aaron Fraser
Guest
Well hold on Muzz, it's not Milk's fault that every time he gets tackled he's getting a shoulder to the face. His glass jaw doesn't help. I highly doubt Bennett would be happy with the Milk taking a dive in try scoring range, which he often does. I'll pay coq sandwich.
Muzz
Guest
Not this year Mals. The coaching staff have been monitoring things closely.A number of players have been rested throughout the season. They're finishing games well and could play another 40 minutes if required.
Mals
Guest
The Chooks are tired, playing instead of resting last weekend. It will bring them undone in the 2nd half of this match. It happened to the Chooks last year & it will happen again this year.
Muzz
Guest
Come on Aaron. Bennett instructs them to stay down. Boyd copped a much deserved legal coq sandwich and carried on like Maradona Quite sad actually and against the spirit of this great game. Milf should change his name to Milk
DMW
Guest
I think the Broncos will attempt to restrict the Roosters coming off their own line thus forcing them to kick long. I was trying to suggest by my above post that this might even come at the expense of lower % scoring plays, instead turning the ball over exactly where they want. Putting pressure on the Roosters carries 1-3 may yield the result they're after. Bennett is no fool and this style will certainly play right to the wishes of the crowd wanting to see the Broncos dominate. Alternatively I don't think we'll see the Roosters usual back 3 return configuration either... I expect carries 2/3 early on to be bolstered by the pack rotating in this task and ignite their power game early.
Muzz
Guest
Another great article, Tim Rooster 13+ Cordner the beast - man of the match
Aaron Fraser
Guest
Well that's laughable. Last time vs the Roosters he got hit high twice, and kneed in the back. No wonder he was getting up slow. Milking? He got up and played the ball (slowly) and didn't give the video ref a chance to step in as other players have done in the past (Hayne, Ennis, etc.).
Muzz
Guest
RIP JAY C
Jim
Guest
Yeah, I think that statement from Robinson after the Melbourne game was directed at the penalties that should have gone to Cordner. Cordner repeatedly broke through the Melbourne line in the 2nd half, and Melbourne just outright held him down. Last week against the Bulldogs, one of Cordner's first runs got a penalty after a theatrical flop. Not that I don't trust the referees, but I'm fairly sure the Bulldogs were penalised because of what Melbourne did.
Emcie
Roar Guru
Broncos haven't been playing for field position though, in just about all their games they've lost both the meters conceded and tackles in opposition 20 stat's and still remained dominant