The Melbourne Storm host the North Queensland Cowboys at AAMI Park in the NRL finals series to decide who makes it to ANZ Stadium for the grand final.
Here’s what the stats say about this crucial clash.
The History
Overall: This will be the 30th clash between these sides dating back to 1998. The Storm have won 20, the Cowboys nine.
Finals: These two sides have only met in a final once before. They played a semi-final at the SFS in 2005 with the Cowboys running out 26-16 winners on their way to the Grand Final against the Wests Tigers. Cam Smith and Cooper Cronk were playing for the Storm, Johnathon Thurston for the Cowboys.
The last ten: The Storm have won six of the last ten between these sides, including the 14-6 win here in round 25. However, the Cowboys won the previous two.
At this venue: This will be the fourth time the Storm will meet the Cowboys at this ground. The Storm have won two out of the three.
The Referees: Matt Cecchin has never officiated a match between these two sides. Ben Cummins has refereed three between the Storm and the Cowboys, including both games this year, in which the results were split.
Defence
Team Stats – average per game 2015
| Stat | Storm | Cowboys | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 3.0 (2nd) | 4.1 (7th) | +1.1 Cowboys |
| Missed tackles | 22.6 (1st) | 25.3 (4th) | +2.7 Cowboys |
| Tries conceded | 2.5 (2nd) | 3.1 (5th) | +0.6 Cowboys |
| Metres conceded | 1415 (9th) | 1357 (4th) | +58 Storm |
| Penalties conceded | 6.2 (6th) | 6.2 (5th) | equal |
If the Storm have any chance in this match it will be on the back of their defence. In their last five encounters they’ve conceded just eight tries. The Cowboys know how to score a try but even they have only managed four against the Storm this year.
With Cam Smith keeping the forward pack on task and Cooper Cronk barking his orders, Bellamy’s disciplined defensive line could just strangle the Cowboys like they did the Roosters.
Player Stats
| Stat | Storm | Cowboys |
| Tackles made | Cam Smith – 46
Kevin Proctor – 34 Jesse Bromwich – 33 Tohu Harris – 32 |
Ethan Lowe – 36
Gavin Cooper – 31 Matthew Scott – 29 |
| Missed tackles | Will Chambers – 2.2
Cooper Cronk – 1.7 |
Johnathan Thurston – 3.0
Ethan Lowe – 2.2 Michael Morgan – 2.1 Lachlan Coote – 2.1 |
| Penalties conceded | Cameron Smith – 26
Jesse Bromwich – 14 |
James Tamou – 16
Jake Granville – 15 Ethan Lowe – 15 |
| Errors | Marika Koroibete – 25
Will Chambers – 25 Blake Green – 18 |
Lachlan Coote – 29
Johnathan Thurston – 28 Michael Morgan – 20 |
The Storm’s game plan is based on no errors, kicking for field position, steely defence and then capitalising on opposition errors.
The Storm will be trying as hard as they can to force Thurston, Coote and Morgan into error and off their games. They’ll also be sending as much traffic as possible at Thurston’s spot in the defensive line and his three missed tackles a match.
Attack
Team Stats – average per game 2015
| Stat | Storm | Cowboys | Difference |
| Line breaks | 4.2 (10th) | 5 (2nd) | +0.8 Cowboys |
| Tackle breaks | 25.6 (11th) | 31 (2nd) | +5.4 Cowboys |
| Tries scored | 3.5 (7th) | 4.23 (1st) | +0.73 Cowboys |
| Metres made | 1418 (7th) | 1582 (1st) | +164 Cowboys |
| Penalties received | 6.6 (7th) | 6.7 (6th) | +0.1 Cowboys |
| Errors | 9.0 (1st) | 9.7 (7th) | +0.7 Cowboys |
The Cowboys have a distinct advantage in attacking stats across the board. However, as stated above, the Storm know how to choke the very best attacks with their incredibly disciplined game plan and defence.
However, can they stop the forward motion of the Cowboys pack? When Ben Hannant is coming off the bench the starting pack must be very good. Scott and Tamou are the benchmark for front row partners. Backed up by Taumololo, Lowe and Cooper – with a side of Bolton and Asiata thrown in – the Storm pack must be at their determined best if they are to prevail.
Player stats
| Stat | Storm | Cowboys |
| Tackle breaks | Cameron Munster – 5.6
Marika Koroibete – 3.5 |
Lachlan Coote – 3.5
Michael Morgan – 3.3 Jason Taumalolo – 3.1 Kane Linnett – 2.9 Kyle Feldt – 2.6 Johnathan Thurston – 2.2 |
| Line breaks | Marika Koroibete – 20
Cameron Munster – 11 Will Chambers – 10 Blake Green – 10 |
Michael Morgan – 19
Justin ONeill – 14 Lachlan Coote – 11 Jake Granville – 11 Kane Linnett – 11 |
| Metres gained | Cameron Munster -165
Marika Koroibete – 150 Jesse Bromwich – 149 |
Jason Taumalolo – 141
James Tamou – 133 Kane Linnett – 128 Lachlan Coote – 125 Matthew Scott – 125 |
| Tries scored | Marika Koroibete – 20
Cameron Munster – 11 Will Chambers – 10 Blake Green – 10 |
Antonio Winterstein – 16
Michael Morgan – 14 Justin O’Neill – 10 Jake Granville – 10 Kane Linnett – 10 |
| Try assists | Cooper Cronk -16
Blake Green – 9 |
Johnathan Thurston – 22
Lachlan Coote – 14 |
| Line break assists | Cooper Cronk – 12
Blake Green – 10 |
Johnathan Thurston – 18
Lachlan Coote – 15 |
Morgan’s return to form last week would have sent alarm bells ringing as he takes so much pressure off Thurston. Morgan’s six tackle breaks and three line breaks meant that Thurston could focus on guiding the team around the paddock far more than he has while Morgan was injured.
For the Storm their hopes rest heavily on Marika Koroibete recovering from his ankle injury. His 20 Tries this year have been the only consistent danger his side has had since Billy Slater was ruled out with injury.
The once deadly Storm attack has been the most toothless it has been for a decade in Slater’s absence. One bright spark of hope is the continuing great form of Cameron Munster. His tackle breaks, line breaks, tries scored and metres gained are showing great promise. However, the Storm need that promise realised right now.
When they score and when they concede
| Scored | 0-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | Total |
| Cowboys | 18.35%
118 points / Avg 4.54 |
21.3%
137 points / Avg 5.27 |
19.6%
126 points / Avg 4.84 |
40.75%
262 points / Avg 10 |
643 |
| Storm | 28.63%
140 points / Avg 5.6 |
21.27%
104 points / Avg 4.16 |
25.7%
126 points / Avg 5 |
24.3%
119 points / Avg 4.76 |
489 |
| Conceded | 0-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | Total |
| Cowboys | 30%
142 point / Avg 5.46 |
27%
128 points / Avg 4.9 |
22.5%
106 points / Avg 4 |
20.5%
97 points Avg 3.7 |
473 |
| Storm | 22.5%
88 points / Avg 3.5 |
30%
118 points / Avg 4.7 |
16.3%
64 points / Avg 2.56 |
31.2%
122 points / Avg 4.9 |
392 |
The Storm have three times this season run down eight point deficits to win. However, any time they have fallen behind more than eight points they have lost.
The scoring patterns above suggest that the Storm’s propensity for scoring early will take advantage of the Cowboys lax defence in the first 20 minutes. The Storm will want to build as big a lead as possible as the Cowboys have scored 40% of their points in the last 20 minutes of games, which is exactly when the Storm’s defence is at its worst.
The Cowboys have been superb at running down scores this year. Four times they’ve reeled in 12-point deficits to win. They’ve also run down 16, 18 and 24-point deficits to win games. They can come home with a very wet sail.
The Danger Men
As stated above, Michael Morgan’s return has added the missing spark to the Cowboys attack. Their superb spine of Granville, Thurston, Morgan and Coote will be given loads of room to operate behind Tamou and Scott.
Once more, Jason Taumololo could cut loose at any moment. Back in round four he caused havoc against the Storm running for 240 metres and breaking five tackles.
Cameron Munster is the danger man for the Storm. He has been getting better with each match and under the guidance of Cronk he could go on a try scoring frenzy.
Who is going to win and why
The Storm jagged a top four spot thanks to the Sharks choking against the Sea Eagles in round 26. They then made the most of it by knocking off the Roosters away in a brilliant piece of controlled footy.
It won’t be enough against the Cowboys. The Storm have lost their last two finals at this venue and I think the Cowboys will make it a third. You’ve got to score tries to win finals and the Storm average less than four. The Cowboys will score four plus tries. It is their time.
Prediction: Cowboys 1-12
Barick
Guest
Yes, definitely seen an improvement on the defensive game & starts from the cows, the Storm are still a high quality team, for me it is still who turns up on the day to win...
Jara W
Guest
Perfect quotes. The Cowboys need to ensure they bring their "unstoppable force" game for much of the match. The Storm should be able to hold it off in the opening stages. If it doesn't work and the Cowboys think "what now" for a second they will get dragged into a grind. And Smith and Cronk will take over.
Jara W
Guest
Yeah of course. And I certainly don't want to belittle the numbers. They have their place. And these articles are always a great read. But I swear to god if I hear about the Broncos conceding too many metres one more time!! I think stats are useful for separating the good teams from the bad. But these teams finished top four for a reason.
John Hutchinson
Guest
Interesting Stat: Penalties Conceded: Cameron Smith 26...considering all the bitching about how the Refs love him so much and gets a fairer deal than everyone else. This is a real "Unstoppable Force" (the Cowboys) and against the "Immovable Object" (Storm) contest. Cronk/Smith/Munster v Thurston/Morgan/Coote...I can't pick it !!!!
Jara W
Guest
Very good point. Both these games are surely 50/50 to most punters. Of course it can be argued that the week off can ruin your momentum. But I feel like the Roosters and Cowboys odds have more to do with last weeks results. Lacking a bit of consideration that the opposition wasn't up to scratch on the day. Try casting your mind back to week one of the finals. And then have a think about what to expect.
Cedric
Guest
the stats are a handy guide, but really your right game plan, energy and the top 2 inches. But boy oh boy the Cows looked hot last week! If they start like that the storm will have their work cut out. But i do think alot of people underestimate the Storm forward pack, Proctor and Harris and Bromich featured alot in defeating the Roos' on a couple of ocassions. And any side with Smith and Cronk together, lookout! Should be a cracker, I'm saying Storm, maybe?
Jara W
Guest
The Cowboys played quite a different game against the Sharks than the week before against the Broncos. Stats are out the window for this one. All about game plans.
Benedict Arnold
Guest
People seem to be dismissing the week off a lot this week with the grand final qualifying matches. Both favourites backed by the bookies have the teams who didn't earn a week off as favourites. Physically it's akin to a triathlete preparing for a competition, they should be at optimal physical condition this weekend. I don't think you will see the cowboys from last week this weekend. The sharks were embarrassing and had zero kicking game and built zero pressure on the cowboys, all of their attack was based around michael ennis. Their defence laughable at times as well. I just have a feeling fatigue could catch up with cows on saturday and a couple of the backs to have a shocker. Justin O'neill under the highball and lachlan coote fielding bombs with kick chase pressure could undo them. It will be a good game no doubt, I do think the storm will get though. Regardless of what the papers are saying.
Kevin
Guest
Yes they can. Make it happen Cowboys. I'll be root'n for you.
Joe
Roar Rookie
This reads as Storms defence vs Cowboys attack. With Koroibete ruled out or even playing injured I would say your Cowboys 1-12 would be the best bet. Koroibete features heavily in all of the Storms attack stats and is the only one who has out and out speed in the Storm team. A lot of his tries this year wouldn't have been scored had it been Young Tonumaipaia. Young is a good metre eater and has a decent work rate but he is not a finisher like Koroibete and that is what the Storm need on the end of that left side with Green/Mann/Tohu. Also that side's defence which leaked the most points early in the season had just finally started to hold and now will have a new combination which I am sure the Cowboys will be attacking all day. Without Koroibete's attack the Storm will have to defend their way to a win which means the crowd will have to help them lift considerably. I still think they're capable as some of the older players have done it before (GF 2012) but a lot depends on the young un's who will be in the team Mann, Munster and the bench with Welch and Asofa Solomona. This will probably be the hardest game they've ever played in their lives.
Dean
Guest
I can't see the Storm getting over the Cowboys, but say that about most of Storm's big games over the past month and they keep getting the job done!
ChubbzyK96
Guest
For the Cowboys usual lack of defensive intensity in the opening 20mins, they showed last weekend what their strategy was: and thats Attack is the best defense. They were looking to get off to a red hot start in attack rather than defense, getting the points rather than holding out. If they come out with that intensity they could well and truly blow the Storm off the park early a-la Bulldogs @ Belmore. That game still holds in my mind strongly, very similar to the Cowboys last week! Its up to the Forward Pack, and i think we can do it! ITS ON! QLD GF TIME 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ChubbzyK96
Guest